Solving, Estimating and Selecting Nonlinear Dynamic Models without the Curse of Dimensionality

We present a comprehensive framework for Bayesian estimation of structural nonlinear dynamic economic models on sparse grids. TheSmolyak operator underlying the sparse grids approach frees global approximation from the curse of dimensionality and we apply it to a Chebyshev approximation of the model solution. The operator also eliminates the curse from Gaussian quadrature and we use it for the integrals arising from rational expectations and in three new nonlinear state space filters. The filters substantially decrease the computational burden compared to the sequential importance resampling particle filter. The posterior of the structural parameters is estimated by a new Metropolis-Hastings algorithm with mixing parallel sequences. The parallel extension improves the global maximization property of the algorithm, simplifies the choice of the innovation variances, allows for unbiased convergence diagnostics and for a simple implementation of the estimation on parallel computers. Finally, we provide all algorithms in the open source software JBendge4 for the solution and estimation of a general class of models.Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) Models, Bayesian Time Series Econometrics, Curse of Dimensionality

Uncertainty Quantification of geochemical and mechanical compaction in layered sedimentary basins

In this work we propose an Uncertainty Quantification methodology for sedimentary basins evolution under mechanical and geochemical compaction processes, which we model as a coupled, time-dependent, non-linear, monodimensional (depth-only) system of PDEs with uncertain parameters. While in previous works (Formaggia et al. 2013, Porta et al., 2014) we assumed a simplified depositional history with only one material, in this work we consider multi-layered basins, in which each layer is characterized by a different material, and hence by different properties. This setting requires several improvements with respect to our earlier works, both concerning the deterministic solver and the stochastic discretization. On the deterministic side, we replace the previous fixed-point iterative solver with a more efficient Newton solver at each step of the time-discretization. On the stochastic side, the multi-layered structure gives rise to discontinuities in the dependence of the state variables on the uncertain parameters, that need an appropriate treatment for surrogate modeling techniques, such as sparse grids, to be effective. We propose an innovative methodology to this end which relies on a change of coordinate system to align the discontinuities of the target function within the random parameter space. The reference coordinate system is built upon exploiting physical features of the problem at hand. We employ the locations of material interfaces, which display a smooth dependence on the random parameters and are therefore amenable to sparse grid polynomial approximations. We showcase the capabilities of our numerical methodologies through two synthetic test cases. In particular, we show that our methodology reproduces with high accuracy multi-modal probability density functions displayed by target state variables (e.g., porosity).Comment: 25 pages, 30 figure

A sparse-grid isogeometric solver

Isogeometric Analysis (IGA) typically adopts tensor-product splines and NURBS as a basis for the approximation of the solution of PDEs. In this work, we investigate to which extent IGA solvers can benefit from the so-called sparse-grids construction in its combination technique form, which was first introduced in the early 90s in the context of the approximation of high-dimensional PDEs. The tests that we report show that, in accordance to the literature, a sparse-grid construction can indeed be useful if the solution of the PDE at hand is sufficiently smooth. Sparse grids can also be useful in the case of non-smooth solutions when some a-priori knowledge on the location of the singularities of the solution can be exploited to devise suitable non-equispaced meshes. Finally, we remark that sparse grids can be seen as a simple way to parallelize pre-existing serial IGA solvers in a straightforward fashion, which can be beneficial in many practical situations.Comment: updated version after revie

Krylov implicit integration factor discontinuous Galerkin methods on sparse grids for high dimensional reaction-diffusion equations

Computational costs of numerically solving multidimensional partial differential equations (PDEs) increase significantly when the spatial dimensions of the PDEs are high, due to large number of spatial grid points. For multidimensional reaction-diffusion equations, stiffness of the system provides additional challenges for achieving efficient numerical simulations. In this paper, we propose a class of Krylov implicit integration factor (IIF) discontinuous Galerkin (DG) methods on sparse grids to solve reaction-diffusion equations on high spatial dimensions. The key ingredient of spatial DG discretization is the multiwavelet bases on nested sparse grids, which can significantly reduce the numbers of degrees of freedom. To deal with the stiffness of the DG spatial operator in discretizing reaction-diffusion equations, we apply the efficient IIF time discretization methods, which are a class of exponential integrators. Krylov subspace approximations are used to evaluate the large size matrix exponentials resulting from IIF schemes for solving PDEs on high spatial dimensions. Stability and error analysis for the semi-discrete scheme are performed. Numerical examples of both scalar equations and systems in two and three spatial dimensions are provided to demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of the methods. The stiffness of the reaction-diffusion equations is resolved well and large time step size computations are obtained

Comparison of data-driven uncertainty quantification methods for a carbon dioxide storage benchmark scenario

A variety of methods is available to quantify uncertainties arising with\-in the modeling of flow and transport in carbon dioxide storage, but there is a lack of thorough comparisons. Usually, raw data from such storage sites can hardly be described by theoretical statistical distributions since only very limited data is available. Hence, exact information on distribution shapes for all uncertain parameters is very rare in realistic applications. We discuss and compare four different methods tested for data-driven uncertainty quantification based on a benchmark scenario of carbon dioxide storage. In the benchmark, for which we provide data and code, carbon dioxide is injected into a saline aquifer modeled by the nonlinear capillarity-free fractional flow formulation for two incompressible fluid phases, namely carbon dioxide and brine. To cover different aspects of uncertainty quantification, we incorporate various sources of uncertainty such as uncertainty of boundary conditions, of conceptual model definitions and of material properties. We consider recent versions of the following non-intrusive and intrusive uncertainty quantification methods: arbitary polynomial chaos, spatially adaptive sparse grids, kernel-based greedy interpolation and hybrid stochastic Galerkin. The performance of each approach is demonstrated assessing expectation value and standard deviation of the carbon dioxide saturation against a reference statistic based on Monte Carlo sampling. We compare the convergence of all methods reporting on accuracy with respect to the number of model runs and resolution. Finally we offer suggestions about the methods' advantages and disadvantages that can guide the modeler for uncertainty quantification in carbon dioxide storage and beyond

Mitigating the Curse of Dimensionality: Sparse Grid Characteristics Method for Optimal Feedback Control and HJB Equations

We address finding the semi-global solutions to optimal feedback control and the Hamilton--Jacobi--Bellman (HJB) equation. Using the solution of an HJB equation, a feedback optimal control law can be implemented in real-time with minimum computational load. However, except for systems with two or three state variables, using traditional techniques for numerically finding a semi-global solution to an HJB equation for general nonlinear systems is infeasible due to the curse of dimensionality. Here we present a new computational method for finding feedback optimal control and solving HJB equations which is able to mitigate the curse of dimensionality. We do not discretize the HJB equation directly, instead we introduce a sparse grid in the state space and use the Pontryagin's maximum principle to derive a set of necessary conditions in the form of a boundary value problem, also known as the characteristic equations, for each grid point. Using this approach, the method is spatially causality free, which enjoys the advantage of perfect parallelism on a sparse grid. Compared with dense grids, a sparse grid has a significantly reduced size which is feasible for systems with relatively high dimensions, such as the $6$-D system shown in the examples. Once the solution obtained at each grid point, high-order accurate polynomial interpolation is used to approximate the feedback control at arbitrary points. We prove an upper bound for the approximation error and approximate it numerically. This sparse grid characteristics method is demonstrated with two examples of rigid body attitude control using momentum wheels