A Minimum Relative Entropy Principle for Learning and Acting

This paper proposes a method to construct an adaptive agent that is universal with respect to a given class of experts, where each expert is an agent that has been designed specifically for a particular environment. This adaptive control problem is formalized as the problem of minimizing the relative entropy of the adaptive agent from the expert that is most suitable for the unknown environment. If the agent is a passive observer, then the optimal solution is the well-known Bayesian predictor. However, if the agent is active, then its past actions need to be treated as causal interventions on the I/O stream rather than normal probability conditions. Here it is shown that the solution to this new variational problem is given by a stochastic controller called the Bayesian control rule, which implements adaptive behavior as a mixture of experts. Furthermore, it is shown that under mild assumptions, the Bayesian control rule converges to the control law of the most suitable expert.Comment: 36 pages, 11 figure

About Adaptive Coding on Countable Alphabets: Max-Stable Envelope Classes

In this paper, we study the problem of lossless universal source coding for stationary memoryless sources on countably infinite alphabets. This task is generally not achievable without restricting the class of sources over which universality is desired. Building on our prior work, we propose natural families of sources characterized by a common dominating envelope. We particularly emphasize the notion of adaptivity, which is the ability to perform as well as an oracle knowing the envelope, without actually knowing it. This is closely related to the notion of hierarchical universal source coding, but with the important difference that families of envelope classes are not discretely indexed and not necessarily nested. Our contribution is to extend the classes of envelopes over which adaptive universal source coding is possible, namely by including max-stable (heavy-tailed) envelopes which are excellent models in many applications, such as natural language modeling. We derive a minimax lower bound on the redundancy of any code on such envelope classes, including an oracle that knows the envelope. We then propose a constructive code that does not use knowledge of the envelope. The code is computationally efficient and is structured to use an {E}xpanding {T}hreshold for {A}uto-{C}ensoring, and we therefore dub it the \textsc{ETAC}-code. We prove that the \textsc{ETAC}-code achieves the lower bound on the minimax redundancy within a factor logarithmic in the sequence length, and can be therefore qualified as a near-adaptive code over families of heavy-tailed envelopes. For finite and light-tailed envelopes the penalty is even less, and the same code follows closely previous results that explicitly made the light-tailed assumption. Our technical results are founded on methods from regular variation theory and concentration of measure

Bayesian shrinkage in mixture-of-experts models: identifying robust determinants of class membership

A method for implicit variable selection in mixture-of-experts frameworks is proposed. We introduce a prior structure where information is taken from a set of independent covariates. Robust class membership predictors are identified using a normal gamma prior. The resulting model setup is used in a finite mixture of Bernoulli distributions to find homogenous clusters of women in Mozambique based on their information sources on HIV. Fully Bayesian inference is carried out via the implementation of a Gibbs sampler

A control algorithm for autonomous optimization of extracellular recordings

This paper develops a control algorithm that can autonomously position an electrode so as to find and then maintain an optimal extracellular recording position. The algorithm was developed and tested in a two-neuron computational model representative of the cells found in cerebral cortex. The algorithm is based on a stochastic optimization of a suitably defined signal quality metric and is shown capable of finding the optimal recording position along representative sampling directions, as well as maintaining the optimal signal quality in the face of modeled tissue movements. The application of the algorithm to acute neurophysiological recording experiments and its potential implications to chronic recording electrode arrays are discussed

Causal inference using the algorithmic Markov condition

Inferring the causal structure that links n observables is usually based upon detecting statistical dependences and choosing simple graphs that make the joint measure Markovian. Here we argue why causal inference is also possible when only single observations are present. We develop a theory how to generate causal graphs explaining similarities between single objects. To this end, we replace the notion of conditional stochastic independence in the causal Markov condition with the vanishing of conditional algorithmic mutual information and describe the corresponding causal inference rules. We explain why a consistent reformulation of causal inference in terms of algorithmic complexity implies a new inference principle that takes into account also the complexity of conditional probability densities, making it possible to select among Markov equivalent causal graphs. This insight provides a theoretical foundation of a heuristic principle proposed in earlier work. We also discuss how to replace Kolmogorov complexity with decidable complexity criteria. This can be seen as an algorithmic analog of replacing the empirically undecidable question of statistical independence with practical independence tests that are based on implicit or explicit assumptions on the underlying distribution.Comment: 16 figure

A prototypical model for tensional wrinkling in thin sheets

The buckling and wrinkling of thin films has recently seen a surge of interest among physicists, biologists, mathematicians and engineers. This has been triggered by the growing interest in developing technologies at ever decreasing scales and the resulting necessity to control the mechanics of tiny structures, as well as by the realization that morphogenetic processes, such as the tissue-shaping instabilities occurring in animal epithelia or plant leaves, often emerge from mechanical instabilities of cell sheets. While the most basic buckling instability of uniaxially compressed plates was understood by Euler more than 200 years ago, recent experiments on nanometrically thin (ultrathin) films have shown significant deviations from predictions of standard buckling theory. Motivated by this puzzle, we introduce here a theoretical model that allows for a systematic analysis of wrinkling in sheets far from their instability threshold. We focus on the simplest extension of Euler buckling that exhibits wrinkles of finite length - a sheet under axisymmetric tensile loads. This geometry, whose first study is attributed to Lam´e, allows us to construct\ud a phase diagram that demonstrates the dramatic variation of wrinkling patterns from near-threshold to far-from-threshold conditions. Theoretical arguments and comparison to experiments show that for thin sheets the far-from-threshold regime is expected to emerge under extremely small compressive loads, emphasizing the relevance of our analysis for nanomechanics applications

Beyond Word N-Grams

We describe, analyze, and evaluate experimentally a new probabilistic model for word-sequence prediction in natural language based on prediction suffix trees (PSTs). By using efficient data structures, we extend the notion of PST to unbounded vocabularies. We also show how to use a Bayesian approach based on recursive priors over all possible PSTs to efficiently maintain tree mixtures. These mixtures have provably and practically better performance than almost any single model. We evaluate the model on several corpora. The low perplexity achieved by relatively small PST mixture models suggests that they may be an advantageous alternative, both theoretically and practically, to the widely used n-gram models.Comment: 15 pages, one PostScript figure, uses psfig.sty and fullname.sty. Revised version of a paper in the Proceedings of the Third Workshop on Very Large Corpora, MIT, 199