Uncertainty propagation and speculation in projective forecasts of environmental change: a lake-eutrophication example

The issue of whether models developed for current conditions can yield correct predictions when used under changed control, as is often the case in environmental management, is discussed. Two models of different complexity are compared on the basis of performance criteria, but it appears that good performance at the calibration stage does not guarantee correctly predicted behavior. A requirement for the detection of such a failure of the model is that the prediction uncertainty range is known. Two techniques to calculate uncertainty propagation are presented and compared: a stochastic first-order error propagation based on the extended Kalman filter (EKF), and a newly developed and robust Monte Carlo set-membership procedure (MCSM). The procedures are applied to a case study of water quality, generating a projective forecast of the algal dynamics in a lake (Lake Veluwe) in response to management actions that force the system into a different mode of behavior. It is found that the forecast from the more complex model falls within the prediction uncertainty range, but its informative value is low due to large uncertainty bounds. As a substitute for time-consuming revisions of the model, educated speculation about parameter shifts is offered as an alternative approach to account for expected but unmodelled changes in the system

Compiler analysis for trace-level speculative multithreaded architectures

Trace-level speculative multithreaded processors exploit trace-level speculation by means of two threads working cooperatively. One thread, called the speculative thread, executes instructions ahead of the other by speculating on the result of several traces. The other thread executes speculated traces and verifies the speculation made by the first thread. In this paper, we propose a static program analysis for identifying candidate traces to be speculated. This approach identifies large regions of code whose live-output values may be successfully predicted. We present several heuristics to determine the best opportunities for dynamic speculation, based on compiler analysis and program profiling information. Simulation results show that the proposed trace recognition techniques achieve on average a speed-up close to 38% for a collection of SPEC2000 benchmarks.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

An Emergentist Account of Collective Cognition in Collaborative Problem Solving

As a first step toward an emergentist theory of collective cognition in collaborative problem solving, we present a proto-theoretical account of how one might conceive and model the intersubjective processes that organize collective cognition into one or another--convergent, divergent, or tensive--cognitive regime. To explore the sufficiency of our emergentist proposal we instantiate a minimalist model of intersubjective convergence and simulate the tuning of collective cognition using data from an empirical study of small-group, collaborative problem solving. Using the results of this empirical simulation, we test a number of preliminary hypotheses with regard to patterns of interaction, how those patterns affect a cognitive regime, and how that cognitive regime affects the efficacy of a problem-solving group