Figures of Merit for Testing Standard Models: Application to Dark Energy Experiments in Cosmology

Given a standard model to test, an experiment can be designed to: (i) measure the standard model parameters; (ii) extend the standard model; or (iii) look for evidence of deviations from the standard model. To measure (or extend) the standard model, the Fisher matrix is widely used in cosmology to predict expected parameter errors for future surveys under Gaussian assumptions. In this article, we present a frame- work that can be used to design experiments such that it maximises the chance of finding a deviation from the standard model. Using a simple illustrative example, discussed in the appendix, we show that the optimal experimental configuration can depend dramatically on the optimisation approach chosen. We also show some simple cosmology calculations, where we study Baryonic Acoustic Oscillation and Supernove surveys. In doing so, we also show how external data, such as the positions of the CMB peaks measured by WMAP, and theory priors can be included in the analysis. In the cosmological cases that we have studied (DETF Stage III), we find that the three optimisation approaches yield similar results, which is reassuring and indicates that the choice of optimal experiment is fairly robust at this level. However, this may not be the case as we move to more ambitious future surveys.Comment: Submitted to MNRAS. 12 pages, 9 figure

(Dt,C) Optimal run orders.

Cost considerations have rarely been taken into account in optimum design theory. A few authors consider measurement costs, i.e. the costs associated with a particular factor level combination. A second cost approach results from the fact that it is often expensive to change factor levels from one observation to another. We refer to these costs as transition costs. In view of cost minimization, one should minimize the number of factor level changes. However, there is a substantial likelihood that there is some time order dependence in the results. Consequently, when considering both time order dependence and transition costs, an optimal ordering is not easy to find. There is precious little in the literature on how to select good time order sequences for arbitrary design problems and up to now, no thorough analysis of both costs is found in the literature. For arbitrary design problems, our proposed design algorithm incorporates cost considerations in optimum design construction and enables one to compute cost-efficient run orders that are optimally balanced for time trends. The results show that cost considerations in the construction of trend-resistant run orders entail considerable reductions in the total cost of an experiment and imply a large increase in the amount of information per unit cost.Optimal; Run orders;

Cattle farmers' preferences for disease-free zones in Kenya: an application of the choice experiment method

Management of livestock diseases is important in ensuring food safety to consumers in both domestic and export markets. Various measures are prescribed under the Sanitary and Phytosanitary Standards (SPS) agreement of the World Trade Organization. In order to prevent the spread of trans-boundary cattle diseases, the SPS agreement recommends the establishment of Disease-Free Zones (DFZs). These have been implemented successfully in some major beef-exporting countries, but in Kenya are still at a pilot stage. To understand Kenyan farmers' preferences on the type of DFZ that would be readily acceptable to them, a choice experiment was conducted using a D-optimal design. Results show that farmers would be willing to pay to participate in a DFZ where: adequate training is provided on pasture development, record keeping and disease monitoring; market information is provided and sales contract opportunities are guaranteed; cattle are properly labelled for ease of identification; and some monetary compensation is provided in the event that cattle die due to severe disease outbreaks. Preferences for the DFZ attributes are shown to be heterogeneous across three cattle production systems. We also derive farmers' preferences for various DFZ policy scenarios. The findings have important implications for policy on the design of DFZ programmes in Kenya and other countries that face similar cattle disease challenges. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd

Model Fitting and Optimal Design of Atmospheric Tracer Experiments: Part I

The results presented in this paper are that part of IIASA's activity related to the application of the statistical methods in the optimization of monitoring networks. The main approach is based on the optimal experimental design theory. Two things are essential for this approach: an experimenter must have a model, or set of competitive models, which describe the observed process appropriately, and he must formulate quantitatively the objective of the expertments. In the forthcoming Part II, the monitoring network design problem will be considered for cases which include prior uncertain inputs, i.e.. weather conditions during a designed experiment. Some corresponding theoretical results have been reported by Atkinson and Fedorov (1988)

An Experiment and Detection Scheme for Cavity-based Cold Dark Matter Searches

A resonance detection scheme and some useful ideas for cavity-based searches of light cold dark matter particles (such as axions) are presented, as an effort to aid in the on-going endeavors in this direction as well as for future experiments, especially in possibly developing a table-top experiment. The scheme is based on our idea of a resonant detector, incorporating an integrated Tunnel Diode (TD) and a GaAs HEMT/HFET (High Electron Mobility Transistor/Heterogenous FET) transistor amplifier, weakly coupled to a cavity in a strong transverse magnetic field. The TD-amplifier combination is suggested as a sensitive and simple technique to facilitate resonance detection within the cavity while maintaining excellent noise performance, whereas our proposed Halbach magnet array could serve as a low-noise and permanent solution replacing the conventional electromagnets scheme. We present some preliminary test results which demonstrate resonance detection from simulated test signals in a small optimal axion mass range with superior Signal-to-Noise Ratios (SNR). Our suggested design also contains an overview of a simpler on-resonance dc signal read-out scheme replacing the complicated heterodyne readout. We believe that all these factors and our propositions could possibly improve or at least simplify the resonance detection and read-out in cavity-based DM particle detection searches (and other spectroscopy applications) and reduce the complications (and associated costs), in addition to reducing the electromagnetic interference and background.Comment: 22 pages, 7 figure