Optimum predictive modelling, holistic integration and analysis of energy sources mix for power generation and sustainability in developing economies : a case of the Nigerian power system

Thesis (PhD (Industrial Systems))--University of Pretoria, 2023.Nigeria being the most populous black nation on earth, with a high birth rate and growing industrial, commercial, transportation, and agricultural activities has been caught up with the dilemma of insufficient power supply which has left the nation lagging in terms of socio-economic development among sister nations. With an aggressive transition to renewables all over the world to meet energy obligations and mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, Nigeria is left with no choice but to join the transition in a bid to uphold the Sustainable Development Goals 7 & 13 (clean and affordable energy & climate action). The power generation mix of Nigeria is largely dependent on natural gas hence, largely in conflict with the mentioned SDGs. Despite these sources of electricity being far fetched from meeting the growing demand for power usage, the non-renewable energy source are noted for creating a significant level of environmental pollution, global warming, and health-related risks. As the need to bring down the rising annual global temperatures to 1.5 degrees in various Conference of Parties (COP) grow in awareness, it’s obvious that Nigeria has a significant role to play towards the actualization of this mission. The ever-increasing demand for electricity, as well as its impact on the environment, necessitates expanding the generation mix by utilizing indigenous sustainable energy sources. Power generation planning that is sustainable and efficient must meet various objectives, many of which conflict with one another in which multi-objective optimization is one of the techniques used for such optimization problems. Using multi-objective optimization, a model for Nigeria’s power supply architecture was developed to integrate indigenous energy sources for a sustainable power generation mix. The model has three competing objectives i.e reducing power generating costs, reducing CO2 emissions and increasing jobs. To solve the multi-objective optimization problem, the Hybrid Structural Interaction Matrix (HSIM) technique was utilized to compute the weights of the three objectives: minimization of costs, minimization of CO2 emissions, and maximization of jobs creation. The General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS) was used to solve the multi-objective optimization problem. According to the simulations, Nigeria could address its power supply shortage and generate up to 2,100 TWh of power by 2050. Over the projected period, large hydropower plants and solar PV will be the leading option for Nigeria's power generation mix. Furthermore, power generation from solar thermal, incinerator, nuclear, gas plants, combined plants, and diesel engine will all be part of the power supply mix by 2050. In terms of jobs expected to be created, about 2.05 million jobs will be added by 2050 from the construction and operation of power generation plants with CO2 emissions attaining 266 MtCO2 by 2050. The cost of power generation is expected to decline from a maximum of 36 billion US$in 2030 to 27.1 billion US$ in 2050. Findings in this research concludes that Nigeria can meet its power supply obligations by harnessing indigenous energy sources into an optimal power supply mix. Furthermore, to establish the basis for the power generation mix projection, system drivers responsible for the rising demand of electricity and reduce pace of transition to renewable energy sources were identified from a systems thinking point of view after which they were prioritized using the HSIM concept. Also, the impact of renewable energy on power accessibility, affordability and environmental sustainability was investigated using the system dynamics approach. It was obtained that factors including urbanization, industrialization, agricultural/commercial services growth rates, and pollution are the primary reasons for the rising demand for electricity. The slow transition to renewables in Nigeria is directly linked to the absence of subsidies and government grants, non-existing or few renewable energy financing institutions, scarcity of experienced professionals, barriers to public awareness and information, and ineffective government policies. The outcome from the system dynamics approach on accessibility, affordability, and environmental sustainability of the electricity supply are thought to be enhanced if indeed the country's plan of using 36% renewables in the mix of power sources is to be met.Industrial and Systems EngineeringPhD (Industrial Systems)Unrestricte

Authenticity and Communication

Authenticity is not an absolute and constant quality inherent in an object or an experience; it is constructed in the process of research. Actors inscribe and attribute it to both material objects and subjective processes like communication and consumption. This article from the research group seeks on the one hand to reflect on the historical scope of action and action patterns among actors from various disciplines between the conflicting priorities of authentication and communication, and on the other to find ways to visualize and operationalize attribution processes through joint reflection. When we look at both history and the discussions fifty years after the Venice Charter, its idea to hand on historic monuments “in the full richness of their authenticity” has turned into an abundance of vibrant action and decision- making

Reflections on Patrick Baert’s 'The Existentialist Moment: The Rise of Sartre as a Public Intellectual'

In this chapter, Simon Susen provides an in-depth review of Patrick Baert’s The Existentialist Moment: The Rise of Sartre as a Public Intellectual (Cambridge: Polity Press, 2015), focusing on the theoretical dimensions underpinning the analysis developed in this book. The chapter is divided into two parts. In the first part, Susen gives a detailed, and largely sympathetic, overview of Baert’s approach, drawing attention to its main conceptual and methodological contributions to the sociological study of intellectuals. In the second part, Susen grapples with the limitations and shortcomings of Baert’s approach, especially with respect to its plea for a paradigm shift from a ‘vocabulary of intentions’ to a ‘vocabulary of effects’ in the sociology of intellectuals. The chapter concludes with a brief reflection on the role that intellectuals may play in shaping the development of society

Application of systems engineering to complex systems and system of systems

2017 Spring.Includes bibliographical references.This dissertation is an investigation of system of systems (SoS). It begins with an analysis to define, with some rigor, the similarities and differences between complex systems and SoS. With this foundation, the baseline concept is development for several different types of systems and they are used as a practical approach to compare and contrast complex systems versus SoS. The method is to use a progression from simple to more complex systems. Specifically, a pico hydro electric power generation system, a hybrid renewable electric power generation system, a LEO satellites system, and Molniya orbit satellite system are investigated. In each of these examples, systems engineering methods are applied for the development of a baseline solution. While these examples are complex, they do not rise to the level of a SoS. In contrast, a multi-spectral drone detection system for protection of airports is investigated and a baseline concept for it is generated. The baseline is shown to meet the minimum requirements to be considered a SoS. The system combines multiple sensor types to distinguish drones as targets. The characteristics of the drone detection system which make it a SoS are discussed. Since emergence is considered by some to be a characteristic of a SoS, it is investigated. A solution to the problem of determining if system properties are emergent is presented and necessary and sufficient conditions for emergence are developed. Finally, this work concludes with a summary and suggestions for additional work

Modern Approaches To Quality Control

Rapid advance have been made in the last decade in the quality control procedures and techniques, most of the existing books try to cover specific techniques with all of their details. The aim of this book is to demonstrate quality control processes in a variety of areas, ranging from pharmaceutical and medical fields to construction engineering and data quality. A wide range of techniques and procedures have been covered

Information-theoretic causal inference of lexical flow

This volume seeks to infer large phylogenetic networks from phonetically encoded lexical data and contribute in this way to the historical study of language varieties. The technical step that enables progress in this case is the use of causal inference algorithms. Sample sets of words from language varieties are preprocessed into automatically inferred cognate sets, and then modeled as information-theoretic variables based on an intuitive measure of cognate overlap. Causal inference is then applied to these variables in order to determine the existence and direction of influence among the varieties. The directed arcs in the resulting graph structures can be interpreted as reflecting the existence and directionality of lexical flow, a unified model which subsumes inheritance and borrowing as the two main ways of transmission that shape the basic lexicon of languages. A flow-based separation criterion and domain-specific directionality detection criteria are developed to make existing causal inference algorithms more robust against imperfect cognacy data, giving rise to two new algorithms. The Phylogenetic Lexical Flow Inference (PLFI) algorithm requires lexical features of proto-languages to be reconstructed in advance, but yields fully general phylogenetic networks, whereas the more complex Contact Lexical Flow Inference (CLFI) algorithm treats proto-languages as hidden common causes, and only returns hypotheses of historical contact situations between attested languages. The algorithms are evaluated both against a large lexical database of Northern Eurasia spanning many language families, and against simulated data generated by a new model of language contact that builds on the opening and closing of directional contact channels as primary evolutionary events. The algorithms are found to infer the existence of contacts very reliably, whereas the inference of directionality remains difficult. This currently limits the new algorithms to a role as exploratory tools for quickly detecting salient patterns in large lexical datasets, but it should soon be possible for the framework to be enhanced e.g. by confidence values for each directionality decision

Immigration and Social Systems

Popular scienceMichael Bommes (hoogleraar Sociologie en Migratieonderzoek) was een van de meest briljante en originele geleerden in zijn vakgebied. Deze postume bundel bevat een selectie van zijn belangrijkste werk over immigratie en de verzorgingsstaat, de integratie van immigranten, discriminatie, illegale migratie, migrantennetwerken en migratiebeleidsonderzoek. Deze bundel laat zien hoe Bommes' inzichten en deskundigheid een fundamentele bijdrage hebben geleverd aan immigratiestudies. Zijn essays bieden scherpe, essentiële waarnemingen van de sociale en politieke reacties op immigratie. Een must read voor iedereen die geïnteresseerd is in deze zaken

Information-theoretic causal inference of lexical flow

This volume seeks to infer large phylogenetic networks from phonetically encoded lexical data and contribute in this way to the historical study of language varieties. The technical step that enables progress in this case is the use of causal inference algorithms. Sample sets of words from language varieties are preprocessed into automatically inferred cognate sets, and then modeled as information-theoretic variables based on an intuitive measure of cognate overlap. Causal inference is then applied to these variables in order to determine the existence and direction of influence among the varieties. The directed arcs in the resulting graph structures can be interpreted as reflecting the existence and directionality of lexical flow, a unified model which subsumes inheritance and borrowing as the two main ways of transmission that shape the basic lexicon of languages

The revolution before the Revolution? A Material Culture Approach to Consumerism at George Washington’s Mount Vernon, VA

Before the American Revolutionary War (1775-1783) profoundly impacted the lives of colonial Americans, another revolution of sorts was taking place. This one occurred in the realm of the daily lives of all colonial Americans – free and enslaved, poor and wealthy. What made the 40-year period before the American Revolution unique was that access to consumer goods appears to have opened up for larger segments of the colonial population through a more sophisticated and far-reaching system of distribution for imported items. But just how equal was this access? What can be learned about colonial culture and the maintenance of power relationships if this issue of equality of access to the material world is thoroughly and systematically investigated? This dissertation begins most simply with the question, what comprised the world of goods for individuals living in the upper Chesapeake region in the decades before the American Revolution? The research then progresses towards a set of questions that penetrates issues of power and access inherent in material culture. How was this world of goods different for individuals of separate socio-economic and racial categories? Why did individuals like George Washington maintain a commitment to the consignment system when stores offered the ease and convenience of local shopping? Who had access to which objects and what implications did this have for how material culture was employed or deployed towards the maintenance or destabilization of the colonial social order? I triangulate between three primary sources – Washington’s orders to and invoices from his agents in England; the store inventories from a local Scottish-owned retail outlet to answer these questions; and the archaeological record at Mount Vernon – to address these questions using a material culture approach that draws upon these compatible datasets on historical consumerism