Evolutionary multi-stage financial scenario tree generation

Multi-stage financial decision optimization under uncertainty depends on a careful numerical approximation of the underlying stochastic process, which describes the future returns of the selected assets or asset categories. Various approaches towards an optimal generation of discrete-time, discrete-state approximations (represented as scenario trees) have been suggested in the literature. In this paper, a new evolutionary algorithm to create scenario trees for multi-stage financial optimization models will be presented. Numerical results and implementation details conclude the paper

Mathematical problems for complex networks

Copyright @ 2012 Zidong Wang et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. This article is made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund.Complex networks do exist in our lives. The brain is a neural network. The global economy is a network of national economies. Computer viruses routinely spread through the Internet. Food-webs, ecosystems, and metabolic pathways can be represented by networks. Energy is distributed through transportation networks in living organisms, man-made infrastructures, and other physical systems. Dynamic behaviors of complex networks, such as stability, periodic oscillation, bifurcation, or even chaos, are ubiquitous in the real world and often reconfigurable. Networks have been studied in the context of dynamical systems in a range of disciplines. However, until recently there has been relatively little work that treats dynamics as a function of network structure, where the states of both the nodes and the edges can change, and the topology of the network itself often evolves in time. Some major problems have not been fully investigated, such as the behavior of stability, synchronization and chaos control for complex networks, as well as their applications in, for example, communication and bioinformatics

Sparse and Constrained Stochastic Predictive Control for Networked Systems

This article presents a novel class of control policies for networked control of Lyapunov-stable linear systems with bounded inputs. The control channel is assumed to have i.i.d. Bernoulli packet dropouts and the system is assumed to be affected by additive stochastic noise. Our proposed class of policies is affine in the past dropouts and saturated values of the past disturbances. We further consider a regularization term in a quadratic performance index to promote sparsity in control. We demonstrate how to augment the underlying optimization problem with a constant negative drift constraint to ensure mean-square boundedness of the closed-loop states, yielding a convex quadratic program to be solved periodically online. The states of the closed-loop plant under the receding horizon implementation of the proposed class of policies are mean square bounded for any positive bound on the control and any non-zero probability of successful transmission

HMM based scenario generation for an investment optimisation problem

This is the post-print version of the article. The official published version can be accessed from the link below - Copyright @ 2012 Springer-Verlag.The Geometric Brownian motion (GBM) is a standard method for modelling financial time series. An important criticism of this method is that the parameters of the GBM are assumed to be constants; due to this fact, important features of the time series, like extreme behaviour or volatility clustering cannot be captured. We propose an approach by which the parameters of the GBM are able to switch between regimes, more precisely they are governed by a hidden Markov chain. Thus, we model the financial time series via a hidden Markov model (HMM) with a GBM in each state. Using this approach, we generate scenarios for a financial portfolio optimisation problem in which the portfolio CVaR is minimised. Numerical results are presented.This study was funded by NET ACE at OptiRisk Systems

Supply chain collaboration

In the past, research in operations management focused on single-firm analysis. Its goal was to provide managers in practice with suitable tools to improve the performance of their firm by calculating optimal inventory quantities, among others. Nowadays, business decisions are dominated by the globalization of markets and increased competition among firms. Further, more and more products reach the customer through supply chains that are composed of independent firms. Following these trends, research in operations management has shifted its focus from single-firm analysis to multi-firm analysis, in particular to improving the efficiency and performance of supply chains under decentralized control. The main characteristics of such chains are that the firms in the chain are independent actors who try to optimize their individual objectives, and that the decisions taken by a firm do also affect the performance of the other parties in the supply chain. These interactions among firms’ decisions ask for alignment and coordination of actions. Therefore, game theory, the study of situations of cooperation or conflict among heterogenous actors, is very well suited to deal with these interactions. This has been recognized by researchers in the field, since there are an ever increasing number of papers that applies tools, methods and models from game theory to supply chain problems

Stability and Performance Verification of Optimization-based Controllers

This paper presents a method to verify closed-loop properties of optimization-based controllers for deterministic and stochastic constrained polynomial discrete-time dynamical systems. The closed-loop properties amenable to the proposed technique include global and local stability, performance with respect to a given cost function (both in a deterministic and stochastic setting) and the $\mathcal{L}_2$ gain. The method applies to a wide range of practical control problems: For instance, a dynamical controller (e.g., a PID) plus input saturation, model predictive control with state estimation, inexact model and soft constraints, or a general optimization-based controller where the underlying problem is solved with a fixed number of iterations of a first-order method are all amenable to the proposed approach. The approach is based on the observation that the control input generated by an optimization-based controller satisfies the associated Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) conditions which, provided all data is polynomial, are a system of polynomial equalities and inequalities. The closed-loop properties can then be analyzed using sum-of-squares (SOS) programming

Model predictive control techniques for hybrid systems

This paper describes the main issues encountered when applying model predictive control to hybrid processes. Hybrid model predictive control (HMPC) is a research field non-fully developed with many open challenges. The paper describes some of the techniques proposed by the research community to overcome the main problems encountered. Issues related to the stability and the solution of the optimization problem are also discussed. The paper ends by describing the results of a benchmark exercise in which several HMPC schemes were applied to a solar air conditioning plant.Ministerio de Eduación y Ciencia DPI2007-66718-C04-01Ministerio de Eduación y Ciencia DPI2008-0581