A STOCHASTIC SIMULATION-BASED HYBRID INTERVAL FUZZY PROGRAMMING APPROACH FOR OPTIMIZING THE TREATMENT OF RECOVERED OILY WATER

In this paper, a stochastic simulation-based hybrid interval fuzzy programming (SHIFP) approach is developed to aid the decision-making process by solving fuzzy linear optimization problems. Fuzzy set theory, probability theory, and interval analysis are integrated to take into account the effect of imprecise information, subjective judgment, and variable environmental conditions. A case study related to oily water treatment during offshore oil spill clean-up operations is conducted to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed approach. The results suggest that producing a random sequence of triangular fuzzy numbers in a given interval is equivalent to a normal distribution when using the centroid defuzzification method. It also shows that the defuzzified optimal solutions follow the normal distribution and range from 3,000-3,700 tons, given the budget constraint (CAD 110,000-150,000). The normality seems to be able to propagate throughout the optimization process, yet this interesting finding deserves more in-depth study and needs more rigorous mathematical proof to validate its applicability and feasibility. In addition, the optimal decision variables can be categorized into several groups with different probability such that decision makers can wisely allocate limited resources with higher confidence in a short period of time. This study is expected to advise the industries and authorities on how to distribute resources and maximize the treatment efficiency of oily water in a short period of time, particularly in the context of harsh environments

On Markov Chains with Uncertain Data

In this paper, a general method is described to determine uncertainty intervals for performance measures of Markov chains given an uncertainty region for the parameters of the Markov chains. We investigate the effects of uncertainties in the transition probabilities on the limiting distributions, on the state probabilities after n steps, on mean sojourn times in transient states, and on absorption probabilities for absorbing states. We show that the uncertainty effects can be calculated by solving linear programming problems in the case of interval uncertainty for the transition probabilities, and by second order cone optimization in the case of ellipsoidal uncertainty. Many examples are given, especially Markovian queueing examples, to illustrate the theory.Markov chain;Interval uncertainty;Ellipsoidal uncertainty;Linear Programming;Second Order Cone Optimization