Essays on risk management in portfolio optimization and gas supply networks

This work focuses on developing algorithms and methodologies to solve problems dealing with uncertainty in portfolio optimization and industrial gas networks. First, we study the Mean-SemiVariance Project (MSVP) portfolio selection problem, where the objective is to obtain the optimal risk-reward portfolio of non-divisible projects when the risk is measured by the semivariance of the portfolio\u27s Net-Present Value (NPV) and the reward is measured by the portfolio\u27s expected NPV. Similar to the well-known Mean-Variance portfolio selection problem, when integer variables are present (e.g., due to transaction costs, cardinality constraints, or asset illiquidity), the MSVP problem can be solved using Mixed-Integer Quadratic Programming (MIQP) techniques. However, conventional MIQP solvers may be unable to solve large-scale MSVP problem instances in a reasonable amount of time. In this paper, we propose two linear solution schemes to solve the MSVP problem; that is, the proposed schemes avoid the use of MIQP solvers and only require the use of Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP) techniques. In particular, we show that the solution of a class of real-world MSVP problems, in which project returns are positively correlated, can be accurately approximated by solving a single MILP problem. In general, we show that the MSVP problem can be effectively solved by a sequence of MILP problems, which allow us to solve large-scale MSVP problem instances faster than using MIQP solvers. We illustrate our solution schemes by solving a real MSVP problem arising in a Latin American oil and gas company. Also, we solve instances of the MSVP problem that are constructed using data from thePSPLIB library of project scheduling problems. Both approaches are empirically shown to be effective and outperforming the default benchmark MIQP solver to find near-optimal solutions for the selected instances of the MSVP problem.Second, we present an algorithm to compute near-optimal Value-at-Risk (VaR) portfolios. It is known to be difficult to compute optimal VaR portfolios; that is, an optimal risk-reward portfolio allocation using VaR as the risk measure. This is due to VaR being non-convex and of combinatorial nature. In particular, it is well-known that the VaR portfolio problem can be formulated as a mixed-integer linear program (MILP) that is difficult to solve with current MILP solvers for medium to large-scale instances of the problem. The proposed algorithm addresses the shortcomings of the MILP formulation in terms of solution time. To illustrate the efficiency of the presented algorithm, numerical results are presented using historical asset returns from the US financial market. Empirical results suggest that the developed algorithm obtaining a lower bound for VaR outperforms the recently proposed algorithms from the literature. Additionally, we also show that the developed algorithms are able to obtain and guarantee near-optimal solutions for large scale instances of VaR portfolio optimization problem more efficiently than the off the shelf commercial solvers within 1% accuracy.Third, we analyze the impact of the sensor reading errors on parameters that affect the production costs of a leading US industrial gas supply company. For this purpose, a systematic methodology is applied first to determine the relationship between the system output and input parameters, and second to identify the assigned input sensors whose readings need to be improved in a prioritized manner based on the strength of those input-output relationships. The two main criteria used to prioritize these sensors are the decrease in production costs and the decrease in production costs’ volatility obtained when the selected sensor’s precision is improved. To illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach, we first apply it to a simplified version of the real supply network model where the results can be readily validated with the simulated data. Then, we apply and test the proposed approach in the real supply network model with historical data. The experiments suggest that we are able to obtain a significant decrease in production costs and in production costs’ volatility by prioritizing the sensors\u27 maintenance subject to a limited budget.Finally, we analyze the performance of portfolio allocation strategies using clustering techniques based on financial asset\u27s correlation matrices. The Markowitz\u27s mean-variance framework uses first and second order sample moment estimators which are highly subject to estimation errors. The estimation error on the moments could be very significant and it may offset the benefits obtained from the diversification of the portfolio. There are a number of methodologies proposed in the literature to reduce the effect of the estimation error on the moment estimators. A group of these are based on the clustering approaches using sample correlation coefficients as the similarity measure. The idea is to obtain a hierarchical structure between the financial assets and then to use this information to filter the underlying true representative economic information between the assets and to reflect it in a modified correlation matrix. The objective of this study is to replicate and verify some of the published work comparing different allocation strategies and also incorporating recently published hierarchical clustering based portfolio selection strategies into out of sample performance evaluation across different datasets. Initial findings suggest that the difference between the performance of the classical strategies and the recently developed clustering based methodologies are not statistically significant from each other when only positive weights are allowed in the portfolios

Markowitz-based cardinality constrained portfolio selection using Asexual Reproduction Optimization (ARO)

The Markowitz-based portfolio selection turns to an NP-hard problem when considering cardinality constraints. In this case, existing exact solutions like quadratic programming may not be efficient to solve the problem. Many researchers, therefore, used heuristic and metaheuristic approaches in order to deal with the problem. This work presents Asexual Reproduction Optimization (ARO), a model free metaheuristic algorithm inspired by the asexual reproduction, in order to solve the portfolio optimization problem including cardinality constraint to ensure the investment in a given number of different assets and bounding constraint to limit the proportions of fund invested in each asset. This is the first time that this relatively new metaheuristic is in the field of portfolio optimization, and we show that ARO results in better quality solutions in comparison with some of the well-known metaheuristics stated in the literature. To validate our proposed algorithm, we measured the deviation of obtained results from the standard efficient frontier. We report our computational results on a set of publicly available benchmark test problems relating to five main market indices containing 31, 85, 89, 98, and 225 assets. These results are used in order to test the efficiency of our proposed method in comparison to other existing metaheuristic solutions. The experimental results indicate that ARO outperforms Genetic Algorithm(GA), Tabu Search (TS), Simulated Annealing (SA), and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) in most of test problems. In terms of the obtained error, by using ARO, the average error of the aforementioned test problems is reduced by approximately 20 percent of the minimum average error calculated for the above-mentioned algorithms

Twenty years of linear programming based portfolio optimization

a b s t r a c t Markowitz formulated the portfolio optimization problem through two criteria: the expected return and the risk, as a measure of the variability of the return. The classical Markowitz model uses the variance as the risk measure and is a quadratic programming problem. Many attempts have been made to linearize the portfolio optimization problem. Several different risk measures have been proposed which are computationally attractive as (for discrete random variables) they give rise to linear programming (LP) problems. About twenty years ago, the mean absolute deviation (MAD) model drew a lot of attention resulting in much research and speeding up development of other LP models. Further, the LP models based on the conditional value at risk (CVaR) have a great impact on new developments in portfolio optimization during the first decade of the 21st century. The LP solvability may become relevant for real-life decisions when portfolios have to meet side constraints and take into account transaction costs or when large size instances have to be solved. In this paper we review the variety of LP solvable portfolio optimization models presented in the literature, the real features that have been modeled and the solution approaches to the resulting models, in most of the cases mixed integer linear programming (MILP) models. We also discuss the impact of the inclusion of the real features

Approximated Perspective Relaxations: a Project&Lift Approach

The Perspective Reformulation (PR) of a Mixed-Integer NonLinear Program with semi-continuous variables is obtained by replacing each term in the (separable) objective function with its convex envelope. Solving the corresponding continuous relaxation requires appropriate techniques. Under some rather restrictive assumptions, the Projected PR (P^2R) can be defined where the integer variables are eliminated by projecting the solution set onto the space of the continuous variables only. This approach produces a simple piecewise-convex problem with the same structure as the original one; however, this prevents the use of general-purpose solvers, in that some variables are then only implicitly represented in the formulation. We show how to construct an Approximated Projected PR (AP^2R) whereby the projected formulation is "lifted" back to the original variable space, with each integer variable expressing one piece of the obtained piecewise-convex function. In some cases, this produces a reformulation of the original problem with exactly the same size and structure as the standard continuous relaxation, but providing substantially improved bounds. In the process we also substantially extend the approach beyond the original P^2R development by relaxing the requirement that the objective function be quadratic and the left endpoint of the domain of the variables be non-negative. While the AP^2R bound can be weaker than that of the PR, this approach can be applied in many more cases and allows direct use of off-the-shelf MINLP software; this is shown to be competitive with previously proposed approaches in some applications

Models and Matheuristics for Large-Scale Combinatorial Optimization Problems

Combinatorial optimization deals with efficiently determining an optimal (or at least a good) decision among a finite set of alternatives. In business administration, such combinatorial optimization problems arise in, e.g., portfolio selection, project management, data analysis, and logistics. These optimization problems have in common that the set of alternatives becomes very large as the problem size increases, and therefore an exhaustive search of all alternatives may require a prohibitively long computation time. Moreover, due to their combinatorial nature no closed-form solutions to these problems exist. In practice, a common approach to tackle combinatorial optimization problems is to formulate them as mathematical models and to solve them using a mathematical programming solver (cf., e.g., Bixby et al. 1999, Achterberg et al. 2020). For small-scale problem instances, the mathematical models comprise a manageable number of variables and constraints such that mathematical programming solvers are able to devise optimal solutions within a reasonable computation time. For large-scale problem instances, the number of variables and constraints becomes very large which extends the computation time required to find an optimal solution considerably. Therefore, despite the continuously improving performance of mathematical programming solvers and computing hardware, the availability of mathematical models that are efficient in terms of the number of variables and constraints used is of crucial importance. Another frequently used approach to address combinatorial optimization problems are matheuristics. Matheuristics decompose the considered optimization problem into subproblems, which are then formulated as mathematical models and solved with the help of a mathematical programming solver. Matheuristics are particularly suitable for situations where it is required to find a good, but not necessarily an optimal solution within a short computation time, since the speed of the solution process can be controlled by choosing an appropriate size of the subproblems. This thesis consists of three papers on large-scale combinatorial optimization problems. We consider a portfolio optimization problem in finance, a scheduling problem in project management, and a clustering problem in data analysis. For these problems, we present novel mathematical models that require a relatively small number of variables and constraints, and we develop matheuristics that are based on novel problem-decomposition strategies. In extensive computational experiments, the proposed models and matheuristics performed favorably compared to state-of-the-art models and solution approaches from the literature. In the first paper, we consider the problem of determining a portfolio for an enhanced index-tracking fund. Enhanced index-tracking funds aim to replicate the returns of a particular financial stock-market index as closely as possible while outperforming that index by a small positive excess return. Additionally, we consider various real-life constraints that may be imposed by investors, stock exchanges, or investment guidelines. Since enhanced index-tracking funds are particularly attractive to investors if the index comprises a large number of stocks and thus is well diversified, it is of particular interest to tackle large-scale problem instances. For this problem, we present two matheuristics that consist of a novel construction matheuristic, and two different improvement matheuristics that are based on the concepts of local branching (cf. Fischetti and Lodi 2003) and iterated greedy heuristics (cf., e.g., Ruiz and Stützle 2007). Moreover, both matheuristics are based on a novel mathematical model for which we provide insights that allow to remove numerous redundant variables and constraints. We tested both matheuristics in a computational experiment on problem instances that are based on large stock-market indices with up to 9,427 constituents. It turns out that our matheuristics yield better portfolios than benchmark approaches in terms of out-of-sample risk-return characteristics. In the second paper, we consider the problem of scheduling a set of precedence-related project activities, each of which requiring some time and scarce resources during their execution. For each activity, alternative execution modes are given, which differ in the duration and the resource requirements of the activity. Sought is a start time and an execution mode for each activity, such that all precedence relationships are respected, the required amount of each resource does not exceed its prescribed capacity, and the project makespan is minimized. For this problem, we present two novel mathematical models, in which the number of variables remains constant when the range of the activities' durations and thus also the planning horizon is increased. Moreover, we enhance the performance of the proposed mathematical models by eliminating some symmetric solutions from the search space and by adding some redundant sequencing constraints for activities that cannot be processed in parallel. In a computational experiment based on instances consisting of activities with durations ranging from one up to 260 time units, the proposed models consistently outperformed all reference models from the literature. In the third paper, we consider the problem of grouping similar objects into clusters, where the similarity between a pair of objects is determined by a distance measure based on some features of the objects. In addition, we consider constraints that impose a maximum capacity for the clusters, since the size of the clusters is often restricted in practical clustering applications. Furthermore, practical clustering applications are often characterized by a very large number of objects to be clustered. For this reason, we present a matheuristic based on novel problem-decomposition strategies that are specifically designed for large-scale problem instances. The proposed matheuristic comprises two phases. In the first phase, we decompose the considered problem into a series of generalized assignment problems, and in the second phase, we decompose the problem into subproblems that comprise groups of clusters only. In a computational experiment, we tested the proposed matheuristic on problem instances with up to 498,378 objects. The proposed matheuristic consistently outperformed the state-of-the-art approach on medium- and large-scale instances, while matching the performance for small-scale instances. Although we considered three specific optimization problems in this thesis, the proposed models and matheuristics can be adapted to related optimization problems with only minor modifications. Examples for such related optimization problems are the UCITS-constrained index-tracking problem (cf, e.g., Strub and Trautmann 2019), which consists of determining the portfolio of an investment fund that must comply with regulatory restrictions imposed by the European Union, the multi-site resource-constrained project scheduling problem (cf., e.g., Laurent et al. 2017), which comprises the scheduling of a set of project activities that can be executed at alternative sites, or constrained clustering problems with must-link and cannot-link constraints (cf., e.g., González-Almagro et al. 2020)

Methods to Support the Project Selection Problem With Non-Linear Portfolio Objectives, Time Sensitive Objectives, Time Sensitive Resource Constraints, and Modeling Inadequacies

The United States Air Force relies upon information production activities to gain insight regarding uncertainties affecting important system configuration and in-mission task execution decisions. Constrained resources that prevent the fulfillment of every information production request, multiple information requestors holding different temporal-sensitive objectives, non-constant marginal value preferences, and information-product aging factors that affect the value-of-information complicate the management of these activities. This dissertation reviews project selection research related to these issues and presents novel methods to address these complications. Quantitative experimentation results demonstrate these methods’ significance

Mixed-Integer Convex Nonlinear Optimization with Gradient-Boosted Trees Embedded

Decision trees usefully represent sparse, high dimensional and noisy data. Having learned a function from this data, we may want to thereafter integrate the function into a larger decision-making problem, e.g., for picking the best chemical process catalyst. We study a large-scale, industrially-relevant mixed-integer nonlinear nonconvex optimization problem involving both gradient-boosted trees and penalty functions mitigating risk. This mixed-integer optimization problem with convex penalty terms broadly applies to optimizing pre-trained regression tree models. Decision makers may wish to optimize discrete models to repurpose legacy predictive models, or they may wish to optimize a discrete model that particularly well-represents a data set. We develop several heuristic methods to find feasible solutions, and an exact, branch-and-bound algorithm leveraging structural properties of the gradient-boosted trees and penalty functions. We computationally test our methods on concrete mixture design instance and a chemical catalysis industrial instance