Making friends on the fly : advances in ad hoc teamwork

textGiven the continuing improvements in design and manufacturing processes in addition to improvements in artificial intelligence, robots are being deployed in an increasing variety of environments for longer periods of time. As the number of robots grows, it is expected that they will encounter and interact with other robots. Additionally, the number of companies and research laboratories producing these robots is increasing, leading to the situation where these robots may not share a common communication or coordination protocol. While standards for coordination and communication may be created, we expect that any standards will lag behind the state-of-the-art protocols and robots will need to additionally reason intelligently about their teammates with limited information. This problem motivates the area of ad hoc teamwork in which an agent may potentially cooperate with a variety of teammates in order to achieve a shared goal. We argue that agents that effectively reason about ad hoc teamwork need to exhibit three capabilities: 1) robustness to teammate variety, 2) robustness to diverse tasks, and 3) fast adaptation. This thesis focuses on addressing all three of these challenges. In particular, this thesis introduces algorithms for quickly adapting to unknown teammates that enable agents to react to new teammates without extensive observations. The majority of existing multiagent algorithms focus on scenarios where all agents share coordination and communication protocols. While previous research on ad hoc teamwork considers some of these three challenges, this thesis introduces a new algorithm, PLASTIC, that is the first to address all three challenges in a single algorithm. PLASTIC adapts quickly to unknown teammates by reusing knowledge it learns about previous teammates and exploiting any expert knowledge available. Given this knowledge, PLASTIC selects which previous teammates are most similar to the current ones online and uses this information to adapt to their behaviors. This thesis introduces two instantiations of PLASTIC. The first is a model-based approach, PLASTIC-Model, that builds models of previous teammates' behaviors and plans online to determine the best course of action. The second uses a policy-based approach, PLASTIC-Policy, in which it learns policies for cooperating with past teammates and selects from among these policies online. Furthermore, we introduce a new transfer learning algorithm, TwoStageTransfer, that allows transferring knowledge from many past teammates while considering how similar each teammate is to the current ones. We theoretically analyze the computational tractability of PLASTIC-Model in a number of scenarios with unknown teammates. Additionally, we empirically evaluate PLASTIC in three domains that cover a spread of possible settings. Our evaluations show that PLASTIC can learn to communicate with unknown teammates using a limited set of messages, coordinate with externally-created teammates that do not reason about ad hoc teams, and act intelligently in domains with continuous states and actions. Furthermore, these evaluations show that TwoStageTransfer outperforms existing transfer learning algorithms and enables PLASTIC to adapt even better to new teammates. We also identify three dimensions that we argue best describe ad hoc teamwork scenarios. We hypothesize that these dimensions are useful for analyzing similarities among domains and determining which can be tackled by similar algorithms in addition to identifying avenues for future research. The work presented in this thesis represents an important step towards enabling agents to adapt to unknown teammates in the real world. PLASTIC significantly broadens the robustness of robots to their teammates and allows them to quickly adapt to new teammates by reusing previously learned knowledge.Computer Science

Making and Keeping Probabilistic Commitments for Trustworthy Multiagent Coordination

In a large number of real world domains, such as the control of autonomous vehicles, team sports, medical diagnosis and treatment, and many others, multiple autonomous agents need to take actions based on local observations, and are interdependent in the sense that they rely on each other to accomplish tasks. Thus, achieving desired outcomes in these domains requires interagent coordination. The form of coordination this thesis focuses on is commitments, where an agent, referred to as the commitment provider, specifies guarantees about its behavior to another, referred to as the commitment recipient, so that the recipient can plan and execute accordingly without taking into account the details of the provider's behavior. This thesis grounds the concept of commitments into decision-theoretic settings where the provider's guarantees might have to be probabilistic when its actions have stochastic outcomes and it expects to reduce its uncertainty about the environment during execution. More concretely, this thesis presents a set of contributions that address three core issues for commitment-based coordination: probabilistic commitment adherence, interpretation, and formulation. The first contribution is a principled semantics for the provider to exercise maximal autonomy that responds to evolving knowledge about the environment without violating its probabilistic commitment, along with a family of algorithms for the provider to construct policies that provably respect the semantics and make explicit tradeoffs between computation cost and plan quality. The second contribution consists of theoretical analyses and empirical studies that improve our understanding of the recipient's interpretation of the partial information specified in a probabilistic commitment; the thesis shows that it is inherently easier for the recipient to robustly model a probabilistic commitment where the provider promises to enable preconditions that the recipient requires than where the provider instead promises to avoid changing already-enabled preconditions. The third contribution focuses on the problem of formulating probabilistic commitments for the fully cooperative provider and recipient; the thesis proves structural properties of the agents' values as functions of the parameters of the commitment specification that can be exploited to achieve orders of magnitude less computation for 1) formulating optimal commitments in a centralized manner, and 2) formulating (approximately) optimal queries that induce (approximately) optimal commitments for the decentralized setting in which information relevant to optimization is distributed among the agents.PHDComputer Science & EngineeringUniversity of Michigan, Horace H. Rackham School of Graduate Studieshttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/162948/1/qizhg_1.pd

Stochastic Optimization of Bioreactor Control Policies Using a Markov Decision Process Model

Biopharmaceuticals are the fastest-growing segment of the pharmaceutical industry. Their manufacture is complicated by the uncertainty exhibited therein. Scholars have studied the planning and operation of such production systems under some uncertainties, but the simultaneous consideration of fermentation and resin yield uncertainty is lacking so-far. To study the optimal operation of biopharmaceutical production and purification systems under these uncertainties, a stochastic, dynamic approach is necessary. This thesis provides such a model by extending an existing discrete state-space, infinite horizon Markov decision process model of upstream fermentation. Tissue Plasminogen Activator fermentation and chromatography was implemented. This example was used to discuss the optimal policy for operating different fermentation setups. The average per-cycle operating profit of a serial setup was 1,272 $; the parallel setup produced negative average rewards. Managerial insights were derived from a comparison to a basic, titer maximizing policy and process sensitivities. In conclusion, the integrated stochastic optimization of biopharma production and purification control aids decision making. However, the model assumptions pose room for further studies. Keywords: Markov decision process; biopharmaceuticals production; fermentation uncertainty; chromatography resin; stochastic performance decay

Accelerating decision making under partial observability using learned action priors

Thesis (M.Sc.)--University of the Witwatersrand, Faculty of Science, School of Computer Science and Applied Mathematics, 2017.Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) provide a principled mathematical framework allowing a robot to reason about the consequences of actions and observations with respect to the agent's limited perception of its environment. They allow an agent to plan and act optimally in uncertain environments. Although they have been successfully applied to various robotic tasks, they are infamous for their high computational cost. This thesis demonstrates the use of knowledge transfer, learned from previous experiences, to accelerate the learning of POMDP tasks. We propose that in order for an agent to learn to solve these tasks quicker, it must be able to generalise from past behaviours and transfer knowledge, learned from solving multiple tasks, between di erent circumstances. We present a method for accelerating this learning process by learning the statistics of action choices over the lifetime of an agent, known as action priors. Action priors specify the usefulness of actions in situations and allow us to bias exploration, which in turn improves the performance of the learning process. Using navigation domains, we study the degree to which transferring knowledge between tasks in this way results in a considerable speed up in solution times. This thesis therefore makes the following contributions. We provide an algorithm for learning action priors from a set of approximately optimal value functions and two approaches with which a prior knowledge over actions can be used in a POMDP context. As such, we show that considerable gains in speed can be achieved in learning subsequent tasks using prior knowledge rather than learning from scratch. Learning with action priors can particularly be useful in reducing the cost of exploration in the early stages of the learning process as the priors can act as mechanism that allows the agent to select more useful actions given particular circumstances. Thus, we demonstrate how the initial losses associated with unguided exploration can be alleviated through the use of action priors which allow for safer exploration. Additionally, we illustrate that action priors can also improve the computation speeds of learning feasible policies in a shorter period of time.MT201

Hierarchical reinforcement learning for trading agents

Autonomous software agents, the use of which has increased due to the recent growth in computer power, have considerably improved electronic commerce processes by facilitating automated trading actions between the market participants (sellers, brokers and buyers). The rapidly changing market environments pose challenges to the performance of such agents, which are generally developed for specific market settings. To this end, this thesis is concerned with designing agents that can gradually adapt to variable, dynamic and uncertain markets and that are able to reuse the acquired trading skills in new markets. This thesis proposes the use of reinforcement learning techniques to develop adaptive trading agents and puts forward a novel software architecture based on the semi-Markov decision process and on an innovative knowledge transfer framework. To evaluate my approach, the developed trading agents are tested in internationally well-known market simulations and their behaviours when buying or/and selling in the retail and wholesale markets are analysed. The proposed approach has been shown to improve the adaptation of the trading agent in a specific market as well as to enable the portability of the its knowledge in new markets

Human-AI complex task planning

The process of complex task planning is ubiquitous and arises in a variety of compelling applications. A few leading examples include designing a personalized course plan or trip plan, designing music playlists/work sessions in web applications, or even planning routes of naval assets to collaboratively discover an unknown destination. For all of these aforementioned applications, creating a plan requires satisfying a basic construct, i.e., composing a sequence of sub-tasks (or items) that optimizes several criteria and satisfies constraints. For instance, in course planning, sub-tasks or items are core and elective courses, and degree requirements capture their complex dependencies as constraints. In trip planning, sub-tasks are points of interest (POIs) and constraints represent time and monetary budget, or user-specified requirements. Needless to say, task plans are to be individualized and designed considering uncertainty. When done manually, the process is human-intensive and tedious, and unlikely to scale. The goal of this dissertation is to present computational frameworks that synthesize the capabilities of human and AI algorithms to enable task planning at scale while satisfying multiple objectives and complex constraints. This dissertation makes significant contributions in four main areas, (i) proposing novel models, (ii) designing principled scalable algorithms, (iii) conducting rigorous experimental analysis, and (iv) deploying designed solutions in the real-world. A suite of constrained and multi-objective optimization problems has been formalized, with a focus on their applicability across diverse domains. From an algorithmic perspective, the dissertation proposes principled algorithms with theoretical guarantees adapted from discrete optimization techniques, as well as Reinforcement Learning based solutions. The memory and computational efficiency of these algorithms have been studied, and optimization opportunities have been proposed. The designed solutions are extensively evaluated on various large-scale real-world and synthetic datasets and compared against multiple baseline solutions after appropriate adaptation. This dissertation also presents user study results involving human subjects to validate the effectiveness of the proposed models. Lastly, a notable outcome of this dissertation is the deployment of one of the developed solutions at the Naval Postgraduate School. This deployment enables simultaneous route planning for multiple assets that are robust to uncertainty under multiple contexts