Upscaling key ecosystem functions across the conterminous United States by a water-centric ecosystem model

We developed a water-centric monthly scale simulation model (WaSSI-C) by integrating empirical water and carbon flux measurements from the FLUXNET network and an existing water supply and demand accounting model (WaSSI). The WaSSI-C model was evaluated with basin-scale evapotranspiration (ET), gross ecosystem productivity (GEP), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) estimates by multiple independent methods across 2103 eight-digit Hydrologic Unit Code watersheds in the conterminous United States from 2001 to 2006. Our results indicate that WaSSI-C captured the spatial and temporal variability and the effects of large droughts on key ecosystem fluxes. Our modeled mean (±standard deviation in space) ET (556 ± 228 mm yr−1) compared well to Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) based (527 ± 251 mm yr−1) and watershed water balance based ET (571 ± 242 mm yr−1). Our mean annual GEP estimates (1362 ± 688 g C m−2 yr−1) compared well (R2 = 0.83) to estimates (1194 ± 649 g C m−2 yr−1) by eddy flux-based EC-MOD model, but both methods led significantly higher (25–30%) values than the standard MODIS product (904 ± 467 g C m−2 yr−1). Among the 18 water resource regions, the southeast ranked the highest in terms of its water yield and carbon sequestration capacity. When all ecosystems were considered, the mean NEE (−353 ± 298 g C m−2 yr−1) predicted by this study was 60% higher than EC-MOD\u27s estimate (−220 ± 225 g C m−2 yr−1) in absolute magnitude, suggesting overall high uncertainty in quantifying NEE at a large scale. Our water-centric model offers a new tool for examining the trade-offs between regional water and carbon resources under a changing environment

From Social Simulation to Integrative System Design

As the recent financial crisis showed, today there is a strong need to gain "ecological perspective" of all relevant interactions in socio-economic-techno-environmental systems. For this, we suggested to set-up a network of Centers for integrative systems design, which shall be able to run all potentially relevant scenarios, identify causality chains, explore feedback and cascading effects for a number of model variants, and determine the reliability of their implications (given the validity of the underlying models). They will be able to detect possible negative side effect of policy decisions, before they occur. The Centers belonging to this network of Integrative Systems Design Centers would be focused on a particular field, but they would be part of an attempt to eventually cover all relevant areas of society and economy and integrate them within a "Living Earth Simulator". The results of all research activities of such Centers would be turned into informative input for political Decision Arenas. For example, Crisis Observatories (for financial instabilities, shortages of resources, environmental change, conflict, spreading of diseases, etc.) would be connected with such Decision Arenas for the purpose of visualization, in order to make complex interdependencies understandable to scientists, decision-makers, and the general public.Comment: 34 pages, Visioneer White Paper, see http://www.visioneer.ethz.c

Engaging stakeholders in research to address water-energy-food (WEF) nexus challenges

The water–energy–food (WEF) nexus has become a popular, and potentially powerful, frame through which to analyse interactions and interdependencies between these three systems. Though the case for transdisciplinary research in this space has been made, the extent of stakeholder engagement in research remains limited with stakeholders most commonly incorporated in research as end-users. Yet, stakeholders interact with nexus issues in a variety of ways, consequently there is much that collaboration might offer to develop nexus research and enhance its application. This paper outlines four aspects of nexus research and considers the value and potential challenges for transdisciplinary research in each. We focus on assessing and visualising nexus systems; understanding governance and capacity building; the importance of scale; and the implications of future change. The paper then proceeds to describe a novel mixed-method study that deeply integrates stakeholder knowledge with insights from multiple disciplines. We argue that mixed-method research designs—in this case orientated around a number of cases studies—are best suited to understanding and addressing real-world nexus challenges, with their inevitable complex, non-linear system characteristics. Moreover, integrating multiple forms of knowledge in the manner described in this paper enables research to assess the potential for, and processes of, scaling-up innovations in the nexus space, to contribute insights to policy and decision making

Development of a conceptual framework for integrated analysis and assessment of agricultural systems in SEAMLESS-IF

Production Economics,

The role of water vapor in climate. A strategic research plan for the proposed GEWEX water vapor project (GVaP)

The proposed GEWEX Water Vapor Project (GVaP) addresses fundamental deficiencies in the present understanding of moist atmospheric processes and the role of water vapor in the global hydrologic cycle and climate. Inadequate knowledge of the distribution of atmospheric water vapor and its transport is a major impediment to progress in achieving a fuller understanding of various hydrologic processes and a capability for reliable assessment of potential climatic change on global and regional scales. GVap will promote significant improvements in knowledge of atmospheric water vapor and moist processes as well as in present capabilities to model these processes on global and regional scales. GVaP complements a number of ongoing and planned programs focused on various aspects of the hydrologic cycle. The goal of GVaP is to improve understanding of the role of water vapor in meteorological, hydrological, and climatological processes through improved knowledge of water vapor and its variability on all scales. A detailed description of the GVaP is presented

An open and extensible framework for spatially explicit land use change modelling in R: the lulccR package (0.1.0)

Land use change has important consequences for biodiversity and the sustainability of ecosystem services, as well as for global environmental change. Spatially explicit land use change models improve our understanding of the processes driving change and make predictions about the quantity and location of future and past change. Here we present the lulccR package, an object-oriented framework for land use change modelling written in the R programming language. The contribution of the work is to resolve the following limitations associated with the current land use change modelling paradigm: (1) the source code for model implementations is frequently unavailable, severely compromising the reproducibility of scientific results and making it impossible for members of the community to improve or adapt models for their own purposes; (2) ensemble experiments to capture model structural uncertainty are difficult because of fundamental differences between implementations of different models; (3) different aspects of the modelling procedure must be performed in different environments because existing applications usually only perform the spatial allocation of change. The package includes a stochastic ordered allocation procedure as well as an implementation of the widely used CLUE-S algorithm. We demonstrate its functionality by simulating land use change at the Plum Island Ecosystems site, using a dataset included with the package. It is envisaged that lulccR will enable future model development and comparison within an open environment