Assessing the market for solar photovoltaic (PV) microgrids in Malawi

Access to energy is widely acknowledged as an enabler for development, and a lack of energy is a barrier to economic empowerment. Currently just 12% of the Malawian population have access to the national electricity grid, with rural electrification at only 5.3%. Solar photovoltaic (PV) microgrids offer increased access levels over pico-solar systems and solar-home systems, and are a successful rural electrification method in many areas of Africa. This paper addresses the research question of: "what is the market potential for solar microgrids in Malawi?" through a multidisciplinary methodology and outlines necessary steps to overcome the key risks and barriers for implementation nationally. Case studies of existing initiatives in Kenya and Rwanda have been used to inform a system and business design appropriate to Malawi. The market potential of PV microgrids in Malawi has been identified and quantified through a novel approach combining microgrid optimisation software HOMERPro with Geographic Information Systems tools. The methodology also includes an energy ecosystem mapping exercise to identify and frame influencing parameters affecting microgrid implementation nationally. The findings show that solar microgrids are cost competitive with diesel microgrids in all locations in Malawi, although the addition of dispatchable diesel generation may provide economic benefits in larger, more urban systems. To implement solar microgrids would cost approximately $210 per person and average operational expenses of$17 per person per year. It was determined that 42% of Malawians may be most cost effectively served by existing infrastructure, 37% would be best served by microgrids and 21% would be best served by solar-home systems

Mapping the least-cost option for rural electrification in Burkina Faso: Scaling-up renewable energies

This report describes the current status and limitations of the power sector in Burkina Faso and develops a new methodology that through spatial analysis processes aims to provide a possible pathway for universal electricity access through a sustainable energy mix. Two percent of the rural population in Burkina Faso has access to electricity and supply is lacking at many social structures such as schools and hospitals. Energy access achievements in Burkina Faso are still very modest. The rural electrification strategy for Burkina Faso is scattered in several electricity sector development policies: there is a need of defining a concrete action plan. Planning and coordination between grid extension and off-grid electrification programmes is essential to reach a long-term sustainable energy model and to avoid high unnecessary infrastructure investments. This report describes the development and the results obtained with a dynamic planning tool to support national government and development partners in defining an alternative electrification plan. Currently, the common national policy for electrification is dominated almost exclusively by grid extension with the government subsidising fossil fuel electricity production. However, the results of our analysis suggest that an electrification plan mainly based on further grid extension becomes inefficient and unsustainable in order to reach the national energy access targets. Our results also suggest that Burkina Faso’s rural electrification strategy should be driven by distributed minigrids powered by local renewable resources. We find that this approach would connect more people to power more quickly, and would reduce imported fossil fuel dependence/consumption that would otherwise be necessary for grid extension options.JRC.C.2-Energy Efficiency and Renewable

The role of mini-grids for electricity access and climate change mitigation in India

Sustainable Development Goal 7 aims to achieve access to sustainable, affordable, reliable, and modern energy for all. Access to electricity is critical for development and economic growth and can support productive livelihoods and power critical community services such as for healthcare and education. Solar mini-grids can offer the most cost-effective option for rural and remote communities not yet connected to the grid and can deliver reliable, high-quality power which is able to serve multiple uses and meet growing demand over time

You are what you measure! But are we measuring it right? An empiric analysis of energy access metrics based on a multi-tier approach in Bangladesh

Measuring energy access through binary indicators is insufficient, and often, even misleading. In this work, the SE4ALL global tracking framework, and the recently introduced ESMAP multi-tier approach, is critically discussed analyzing questionnaire based primary data from rural Bangladesh. The performance of different energy interventions is evaluated using the new tier framework. The challenges in its application lie in reliable data collection, adequate gradation of indicators, and an effective algorithm for the tier assignment based on the specified set of attributes. The study showcases very high sensitivities to parameter changes, different algorithms, and data requirements. The results reveal a clear trade-off between capturing the multi-dimensionality of energy access and the simplicity of an easy to use global framework. Suggestions to improve the measuring approach are made and conclusions are drawn for possible implications of the tier framework for different energy service offers in the market. Strengths and weaknesses of the present measurement scheme are discussed and country specific results interpreted through targeted gap analysis for future policy advice

How can microgrids help the Philippines’ energy transition? Adapting the Institutional Analysis and Development (IAD) framework for microgrid development

The Philippine energy sector remains plagued with issues of energy security, high electricity costs, and vulnerable grid infrastructure. This paper argues for the increased uptake of microgrids as a solution for these issues, using the Institutional Analysis and Development (IAD) Framework as a guide for microgrid policy. We begin this paper with an analysis of existing energy policies in the Philippines, highlighting a lacking integrated approach for energy security. The main discussion explores the IAD framework for microgrid development in the Philippines, identifying key barriers and dynamics among institutions and actors in the local energy sector. We then conclude with policy implications for adopting microgrids for the Philippine energy landscape

How Can Microgrids Help the Philippines’ Energy Transition? Adapting the Institutional Analysis and Development (IAD) Framework for Microgrid Development

The Philippine energy sector remains plagued with issues of energy security, high electricity costs, and vulnerable grid infrastructure. This paper argues for the increased uptake of microgrids as a solution for these issues, using the Institutional Analysis and Development (IAD) Framework as a guide for microgrid policy. We begin this paper with an analysis of existing energy policies in the Philippines, highlighting a lacking integrated approach for energy security. The main discussion explores the IAD framework for microgrid development in the Philippines, identifying key barriers and dynamics among institutions and actors in the local energy sector. We then conclude with policy implications for adopting microgrids for the Philippine energy landscape

Developing a framework to increase Solar Photovoltaic (Solar PV) microgrid penetration in a tropical region: A case study in Indonesia

Although tropical regions receive a significant amount of solar radiation throughout the year, most tropical countries have low solar photovoltaic (PV) penetration. Indonesia has around 208 gigawatts of solar potential but less than one percent of this potential has been harnessed. This research combined both quantitative and qualitative research to develop a framework for increasing solar PV microgrid penetration in Indonesia. A techno-economic evaluation was performed to identify the performance of a solar PV microgrid in Indonesia and to evaluate its economic potential based on two different land acquisition scenarios. Additionally, surveys and interviews were conducted to obtain some perspectives from key stakeholders regarding the policy landscape of the country. The study shows that although high solar radiation is great to produce higher power, the performance ratio can be quite low. The economic evaluation shows that the land purchasing scenario can give a higher profit while the land leasing scenario can provide a quick return. This study also found out that the declining investment costs and the presence of a Power Purchase Agreement are the drivers for the development of solar PV microgrid in the countries. In contrast, the unstable grid connection and the insufficient technical knowledge are some barriers to this development. The development of solar PV microgrid in Indonesia is a complex issue because of a complex relationship between different technical, financial, social and regulatory aspects. The financial aspect, particularly the presence of a solar PV market, has been seen as the top priority to be resolved in the country. After determining the priority, a framework for successful implementation of solar PV microgrid in Indonesia is being developed. The developed framework has four stages in which each key stakeholder has different roles in each stage. Successful implementation of the framework can increase solar PV microgrid penetration in Indonesia

Sustainability Assessment of Wireless Community Grid for Off-Grid Communities: A Case Study for Haiti

Affordable, reliable, and sustainable energy service is fundamental to human, social and economic development. Approximately 1.2 billion people lack access to basic energy services. There exists a huge energy access gap between urban centers and rural areas. Approximately 84% of the people deprived of energy access live in rural areas. Existing rural electrification options including grid extension, mini-grids, and stand-alone solar home systems, have limited penetration in rural regions. Entrepreneurs, with support from governments and international institutions, have experimented with different business mechanisms to facilitate energy delivery. A significant amount of investment is being made for rural electrification but many projects are not self-sustaining. This research develops a new approach, ‘Wireless Community Grid’, to provide basic energy services to rural households and evaluates if the approach meets the desired features of affordability, profitability, and scalability. The approach comprises of a central charging station operated by local vendors, where portable power systems are charged and rented to homeowners. Each portable power system provides power to each home in the form of indoor lighting and device charging. Each power system is swapped from the station at a regular interval. To understand the energy needs and expenses of a rural population, surveys were conducted in Borgne, Haiti. The major sources for lighting are kerosene lamps, rechargeable bulbs and candles. For charging lights and phones, people have to walk to a vendor with solar systems or generators. Based on three surveyed communities, each household typically spends $2.50 a week on energy services and local vendors make$0.70 a week from each household served. To explore the sustainability of the Wireless Community Grid approach, three preliminary evaluation models were developed. First, a techno-economic tool was used to evaluate the relationship between reliability and cost. Based on the developed tool, a system consisting of 350 W solar array and 58 portable power units with 283 Wh capacity would meet the basic energy needs of a community of 49 households at the lowest present value. Second, a life cycle assessment was performed to study the environmental impacts. It was observed that the proposed system would provide a yearly reduction of 382 kg of CO2 equivalents and 197 kg of crude oil equivalents for each household served compared to the current energy state. Finally, a social business structure was proposed to maximize the number of people impacted while keeping the system affordable and self-sustainable. While keeping the household energy cost level at $2.50/week for energy services, the capital investment of$6100 for a community system, could be recovered in less than 2 years. Over 10 years, the returns on a single investment would be able to expand to 64 similar communities and provide energy services to around 19,000 people. The wireless community grid approach appears to be affordable for end-users and provides profits for local vendors while being financially and environmentally sustainable and highly scalable

Methodology for the evaluation and design of projects considering multiple criteria and uncertainty. Application to the development of energy projects in rural areas

Tesi en modalitat de compendi de publicacionsIn 2015, the United Nations defined the Sustainable Development Goals in a transition towards a world without poverty and where human rights, equity and sustainability are prioritized. In particular, modern energy services are considered crucial not only to achieve universal access to energy by 2030, but due to their contribution to alleviate chronical poverty, reduce food insecurity, promote the access to modern information in schools and enhance the start of productive activities. However, the aim of global access by 2030 is still far from being complete, with more than 700 million people living in rural areas without access to electricity and using firewood and other polluting traditional biomass for cooking and heating. Decentralized energy systems are gaining attention as a more feasible solution than grid extension to provide energy to rural and inaccessible areas. The evaluation and design of decentralized systems is a complex process that needs to take into account multiple alternatives and criteria to ensure a long-term sustainability, but usually available studies in literature focus exclusively in technical and economic aspects. Also, the minority of studies following a multicriteria decision-making approach underestimate the effect of the potential lack of confidence of the experts and users consulted to weight the importance of each criterion or to evaluate a specific alternative. In this context, the objective of this thesis is to develop multicriteria procedures considering uncertainty to increase the robustness of the results. These procedures are applied to projects that foster access to energy services and promote therefore the development of rural and underprivileged areas. The thesis begins with two multicriteria procedures presented for the evaluation and the design, respectively, of rural electrification projects. These procedures are applied to two real case studies in Peru and Nigeria. Both applications provide valuable insights, for local authorities and other promoters of electrification systems in similar contexts, regarding which technologies and configurations to use in determined circumstances. At the same time, the analysis carried out enable an improvement regarding the robustness of results through the consideration of the lack of confidence of the opinions collected about the importance of the criteria and the evaluation of the alternatives. In this regard, A Methodology for Multicriteria Decision-making considering Uncertainty (MIMDU) is then developed based on fuzzy numbers to include the lack of confidence experts and users might have when weighting a criterion or evaluating an alternative. The methodology designed includes a novel procedure to quantify human opinions with non-pre-defined fuzzy numbers and a systematic process to calculate diverse rankings of alternatives and provide complimentary information that leads to a more robust decision-making. Indeed, the potential of the methodology is illustrated with an example case that shows how the lack of confidence can affect the alternatives ranking and the subsequent decision. Finally, the methodology is applied to a real case study in Colombia to select the best alternative for digestate post-treatment before its application to agricultural soil as a fertilizer. The use of MIMDU presents three major beneficial outcomes for multicriteria decision-making to foster rural development. First, the consideration of the lack of confidence of the respondents can reduce the pressure they might feel when providing an answer without complete knowledge. Second, it allows a more accurate quantification of the opinions given, turning, for example, more hesitant answers into less reliable evaluations of an alternative, that worsens its final ranking. And third, more robust decisions can be taken due to the major precision in the modelling of opinions and the possibility of comparing crisp and fuzzy-based rankings of the alternatives.Dins dels objectius de desenvolupament sostenibles, els serveis energètics moderns es consideren crucials no només per aconseguir l'accés universal a l'energia el 2030, sinó per la seva contribució a pal·liar la pobresa crònica, reduir la inseguretat alimentària, promoure l'accés a la informació moderna a les escoles i permetre l'inici d'activitats productives. Tot i això, l’objectiu d’accés mundial per al 2030 encara està lluny d’acomplir-se, ja que més de 700 milions de persones viuen a les zones rurals sense accés a l’electricitat i utilitzen llenya i altres biomasses tradicionals contaminants per cuinar i escalfar. Els sistemes energètics descentralitzats guanyen pes respecte l’extensió de la xarxa per proporcionar energia a zones rurals i inaccessibles. L’avaluació i el disseny d’aquests sistemes és un procés complex que ha de tenir en compte múltiples alternatives i criteris per garantir una sostenibilitat a llarg termini, però els estudis de literatura disponibles generalment se centren exclusivament en aspectes tècniques i econòmiques. A més, la minoria d’estudis que segueixen un enfocament multicriteri subestimen l’efecte de la manca de confiança potencial dels experts i usuaris consultats per ponderar la importància de cada criteri o avaluar una alternativa específica. En aquest context, l'objectiu d'aquesta tesi és desenvolupar procediments multicriteri considerant la incertesa per afavorir l’obtenció de resultats robustos. Aquests procediments s’apliquen a projectes que afavoreixen l’accés als serveis energètics i promouen, per tant, el desenvolupament de zones rurals i desfavorides. La tesi comença amb dos procediments multicriteri presentats per a l'avaluació i el disseny, respectivament, de projectes d'electrificació rural. Aquests procediments s'apliquen a dos casos pràctics reals al Perú i Nigèria. Ambdues aplicacions proporcionen informació valuosa, per a les autoritats locals i altres promotors de sistemes d’electrificació en contextos similars, sobre quines tecnologies i configuracions a utilitzar en determinades circumstàncies. Al mateix temps, les anàlisis realitzades permeten una millora en quant a la solidesa dels resultats mitjançant la consideració de la manca de confiança de les opinions recollides sobre la importància dels criteris i l’avaluació de les alternatives. Per fer-ho, es desenvolupa una metodologia per a la presa de decisions multicriteri que té en compte la incertesa (MIMDU) basada en nombres difusos per incloure la manca de confiança que els experts i usuaris podrien tenir quan ponderen un criteri o avaluen una alternativa. La metodologia dissenyada inclou un nou procediment per quantificar opinions humanes amb nombres difusos no predefinits i un procés sistemàtic per calcular diversos rànquings d’alternatives i proporcionar informació complementària que condueix a una presa de decisions més robusta. De fet, el potencial de la metodologia s’il·lustra amb un cas d’exemple que mostra com la manca de confiança pot afectar el rànquing d’alternatives i la decisió posterior. Finalment, la metodologia s'aplica a un estudi de cas real a Colòmbia per seleccionar la millor alternativa per al post-tractament del digestat abans de la seva aplicació a sòl agrícola com a fertilitzant. L’ús de MIMDU presenta tres grans beneficis per a la presa de decisions multicriteri per fomentar el desenvolupament rural. En primer lloc, la consideració de la manca de confiança dels enquestats pot reduir la pressió que podrien sentir al donar una resposta sense coneixement complet. En segon lloc, permet una quantificació més precisa de les opinions donades, convertint, per exemple, respostes més dubtoses en avaluacions menys fiables d’una alternativa, que empitjora la seva classificació final. I, en tercer lloc, es poden prendre decisions més robustes a causa de la precisió en la modelització d’opinionsEn 2015, la Organización de las Naciones Unidas definió los Objetivos de Desarrollo Sostenible en una transición hacia un mundo sin pobreza y donde se priorizan los derechos humanos, la equidad y la sostenibilidad. En particular, los servicios energéticos modernos se consideran cruciales no solo para lograr el acceso universal a la energía en 2030, sino por su contribución para aliviar la pobreza crónica, reducir la inseguridad alimentaria, promover el acceso a la información en las escuelas y permitir el inicio de actividades productivas. Sin embargo, el objetivo de acceso global a la energía para 2030 aún está lejos de ser completo, con más de 700 millones de personas viviendo en áreas rurales sin acceso a electricidad y utilizando leña y otra biomasa tradicional contaminante, para cocinar y calentar. Los sistemas de energía descentralizados están ganando peso respecto a la extensión de la red para proporcionar energía a áreas rurales e inaccesibles. La evaluación y el diseño de sistemas descentralizados es un proceso complejo que precisa considerar múltiples alternativas y criterios para que sea sostenible a largo plazo, pero los estudios disponibles en la literatura generalmente se enfocan exclusivamente en aspectos técnicos y económicos. Asimismo, la minoría de estudios que siguen un enfoque de toma de decisiones multicriterio subestiman el efecto de la potencial falta de confianza de los expertos y usuarios consultados para ponderar la importancia de cada criterio o para evaluar una alternativa específica. En este contexto, el objetivo de esta tesis es desarrollar procedimientos multicriterio considerando la incertidumbre para aumentar la robustez de los resultados. Estos procedimientos se aplican a proyectos que fomentan el acceso a los servicios energéticos y, por tanto, promueven el desarrollo de zonas rurales y desfavorecidas. La tesis comienza con dos procedimientos multicriterio presentados para la evaluación y el diseño, respectivamente, de proyectos de electrificación rural. Estos procedimientos se aplican a dos estudios de casos reales en Perú y Nigeria. Ambas aplicaciones pueden proporcionar información valiosa, para las autoridades locales y otros promotores de sistemas de electrificación en contextos similares, sobre qué tecnologías y configuraciones utilizar en determinadas circunstancias. Al mismo tiempo, los análisis realizados permiten una mejora en cuanto a la robustez de los resultados a través de la consideración de la falta de confianza de las opiniones recogidas acerca de la importancia de los criterios y de la evaluación de las alternativas. Para ello, se desarrolla una Metodología para la toma de decisiones multicriterio considerando la incertidumbre (MIMDU) basada en números difusos para incluir la falta de confianza que los expertos y los usuarios pueden tener al ponderar un criterio o evaluar una alternativa La metodología diseñada incluye un procedimiento novedoso para cuantificar opiniones humanas con números difusos no predefinidos y un proceso sistemático para proponer rankings de alternativas y brindar información complementaria que conduce a una toma de decisiones más robusta. El potencial de la metodología se ilustra con un caso de ejemplo que muestra cómo la falta de confianza puede afectar el ranking de alternativas y la decisión posterior. Finalmente, la metodología diseñada se aplica a un estudio de caso real en Colombia para seleccionar la mejor alternativa para el digestato post-tratamiento previo a su aplicación al suelo agrícola como fertilizante. El uso de MIMDU presenta tres importantes beneficios para la toma de decisiones multicriterio en contextos de desarrollo rural. En primer lugar, la consideración de la falta de confianza de los encuestados puede reducir la presión al dar una respuesta sin un conocimiento completo. En segundo lugar, permite una cuantificación más precisa de las opiniones emitidas, convirtiendo, por ejemplo, respuestas más vacilantes en valoraciones menos fiables de una alternativa, que empeora su clasificación final. Y tercero, se pueden tomar decisiones más sólidas debido a la mayor precisión en el modelado de opiniones y la posibilidad de comparar rankings deterministas y difusos de las alternativas.Postprint (published version