Solar radiation forecasting by Pearson correlation using LSTM neural network and ANFIS method: application in the west-central Jordan

none6siSolar energy is one of the most important renewable energies, with many advantages over other sources. Many parameters affect the electricity generation from solar plants. This paper aims to study the influence of these parameters on predicting solar radiation and electric energy produced in the Salt-Jordan region (Middle East) using long short-term memory (LSTM) and Adaptive Network based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) models. The data relating to 24 meteorological parameters for nearly the past five years were downloaded from the MeteoBleu database. The results show that the influence of parameters on solar radiation varies according to the season. The forecasting using ANFIS provides better results when the parameter correlation with solar radiation is high (i.e., Pearson Correlation Coefficient PCC between 0.95 and 1). In comparison, the LSTM neural network shows better results when correlation is low (PCC in the range 0.5–0.8). The obtained RMSE varies from 0.04 to 0.8 depending on the season and used parameters; new meteorological parameters influencing solar radiation are also investigated.Topical Collection "Computer Vision, Deep Learning and Machine Learning with Applications"openHossam Fraihat, Amneh A. Almbaideen, Abdullah Al-Odienat, Bassam Al-Naami, Roberto De Fazio, Paolo ViscontiFraihat, Hossam; Almbaideen, Amneh A.; Al-Odienat, Abdullah; Al-Naami, Bassam; DE FAZIO, Roberto; Visconti, Paol

Deep Learning in Energy Modeling: Application in Smart Buildings With Distributed Energy Generation

Buildings are responsible for 33% of final energy consumption, and 40% of direct and indirect CO2 emissions globally. While energy consumption is steadily rising globally, managing building energy utilization by on-site renewable energy generation can help responding to this demand. This paper proposes a deep learning method based on a discrete wavelet transformation and long short-term memory method (DWT-LSTM) and a scheduling framework for the integrated modelling and management of energy demand and supply for buildings. This method analyzes several factors including electricity price, uncertainty in climatic factors, availability of renewable energy sources (wind and solar), energy consumption patterns in buildings, and the non-linear relationships between these parameters on hourly, daily, weekly and monthly intervals. The method enables monitoring and controlling renewable energy generation, the share of energy imports from the grid, employment of saving strategy based on the user priority list, and energy storage management to minimize the reliance on the grid and electricity cost, especially during the peak hours. The results demonstrate that the proposed method can forecast building energy demand and energy supply with a high level of accuracy, showing a 3.63-8.57% error range in hourly data prediction for one month ahead. The combination of the deep learning forecasting, energy storage, and scheduling algorithm enables reducing annual energy import from the grid by 84%, which offers electricity cost savings by 87%. Finally, two smart active buildings configurations are financially analyzed for the next thirty years. Based on the results, the proposed smart building with solar Photo-Voltaic (PV), wind turbine, inverter, and 40.5 kWh energy storage has a financial breakeven point after 9 years with wind turbine and 8 years without it. This implies that implementing wind turbines in the proposed building is not financially beneficial.Peer reviewe

A Survey on Deep Learning Role in Distribution Automation System : A New Collaborative Learning-to-Learning (L2L) Concept

This paper focuses on a powerful and comprehensive overview of Deep Learning (DL) techniques on Distribution Automation System (DAS) applications to provide a complete viewpoint of modern power systems. DAS is a crucial approach to increasing the reliability, quality, and management of distribution networks. Due to the importance of development and sustainable security of DAS, the use of DL data-driven technology has grown significantly. DL techniques have blossomed rapidly, and have been widely applied in several fields of distribution systems. DL techniques are suitable for dynamic, decision-making, and uncertain environments such as DAS. This survey has provided a comprehensive review of the existing research into DL techniques on DAS applications, including fault detection and classification, load and energy forecasting, demand response, energy market forecasting, cyber security, network reconfiguration, and voltage control. Comparative results based on evaluation criteria are also addressed in this manuscript. According to the discussion and results of studies, the use and development of hybrid methods of DL with other methods to enhance and optimize the configuration of the techniques are highlighted. In all matters, hybrid structures accomplish better than single methods as hybrid approaches hold the benefit of several methods to construct a precise performance. Due to this, a new smart technique called Learning-to-learning (L2L) based DL is proposed that can enhance and improve the efficiency, reliability, and security of DAS. The proposed model follows several stages that link different DL algorithms to solve modern power system problems. To show the effectiveness and merit of the L2L based on the proposed framework, it has been tested on a modified reconfigurable IEEE 32 test system. This method has been implemented on several DAS applications that the results prove the decline of mean square errors by approximately 12% compared to conventional LSTM and GRU methods in terms of prediction fields.©2022 Authors. Published by IEEE. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License. For more information, see https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/fi=vertaisarvioitu|en=peerReviewed

A Multi-Stage Electricity Price Forecasting For Day-Ahead Markets

Forecasting hourly spot prices for real-time electricity usage is a challenging task. This thesis work investigates a series of price forecasting methods for day-ahead Iberian Electricity Markets (MIBEL). The dataset from MIBEL was used to train and test multiple forecast models. A hybrid combination of Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Generalized Linear Model (GLM) was proposed and its Mean Percentage Error (MAPE) values were compared against several methods. For example, ARIMA, GLM, Random forest (RF) and Support Vector Machines (SVM) methods are investigated. The results indicate a significant improvement in MAPE and correlation coefficient values for the proposed hybrid ARIMA-GLM method. Forecasting hourly spot prices for real-time electricity markets are key activities in energy trading operations. This thesis work specifically develop a novel two-stage approach that uses a combination of Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) with other models to improve residual errors in predicting the hourly spot prices. In Stage-1, the day-ahead price is forecasted using ARIMA, and then the resulting residuals are fed to another forecasting method in Stage-2. This approach was successfully tested with multiple duration periods ranging from one-week to ninety days for variables such as price, load, and temperature. A comprehensive set of 17 variables were included in the proposed model to predict the day-ahead electricity price. The results indicate a significant improvement in the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) values compared to other present approaches. To reduce the prediction error, three types of variable selection techniques such as Relative importance using Linear Regression (LR), Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS), and Random forest (RF) were used. Four datasets (Three months, Six months, weekday, and weekend) were used to validate the performance of the model. Three different set of variables (17, 4, 2) were used in this study. At last, three common variables selected from these feature selection approaches were tested with all these datasets. Considerable reduction in MAPE for both three and six-month dataset were achieved by these variable selection approaches. In addition, the work also investigate the application of a multi-layered deep neural network to the Iberian electric market (MIBEL) price forecasting task. A 3-month and 6-month of energy data are used to train the proposed model. The 3-month and 6-month period is treated as a historical dataset to train and predict the price for day-ahead markets. The network structure is implemented using Googleâs machine learning TensorFlow platform. Activation function such as Rectifier linear unit (ReLU) were tested to achieve a better Mean Absolute percentage error (MAPE) considering the weekday and weekend variations

Celebrating the Physics in Geophysics

As 2005, the International Year of Physics, comes to an end, two physicists working primarily in geophysical research reflect on how geophysics is not an applied physics. Although geophysics has certainly benefited from progress in physics and sometimes emulated the reductionist program of mainstream physics, it has also educated the physics community about some of the generic behaviors of strongly nonlinear systems. Dramatic examples are the insights we have gained into the ``emergent'' phenomena of chaos, cascading instabilities, turbulence, self-organization, fractal structure, power-law variability, anomalous scaling, threshold dynamics, creep, fracture, and so on. In all of these examples, relatively simple models have been able to explain the recurring features of apparently very complex signals and fields. It appears that the future of the intricate relation between physics and geophysics will be as exciting as its past has been characterized by a mutual fascination. Physics departments in our universities should capitalize on this trend to attract and retain young talent motivated to address problems that really matter for the future of the planet. A pressing topic with huge impact on populations and that is challenging enough for both physics and geophysics communities to work together like never before is the understanding and prediction of extreme events.Comment: 6 pages, final version to appear in EOS-AGU Transactions in November 200

Forecasting Models for Integration of Large-Scale Renewable Energy Generation to Electric Power Systems

Amid growing concerns about climate change and non-renewable energy sources deple¬tion, vari¬able renewable energy sources (VRESs) are considered as a feasible substitute for conventional environment-polluting fossil fuel-based power plants. Furthermore, the transition towards clean power systems requires additional transmission capacity. Dynamic thermal line rating (DTLR) is being considered as a potential solution to enhance the current transmission line capacity and omit/postpone transmission system expansion planning, while DTLR is highly dependent on weather variations. With increasing the accommodation of VRESs and application of DTLR, fluctuations and variations thereof impose severe and unprecedented challenges on power systems operation. Therefore, short-term forecasting of large-scale VERSs and DTLR play a crucial role in the electric power system op¬eration problems. To this end, this thesis devotes on developing forecasting models for two large-scale VRESs types (i.e., wind and tidal) and DTLR. Deterministic prediction can be employed for a variety of power system operation problems solved by deterministic optimization. Also, the outcomes of deterministic prediction can be employed for conditional probabilistic prediction, which can be used for modeling uncertainty, used in power system operation problems with robust optimization, chance-constrained optimization, etc. By virtue of the importance of deterministic prediction, deterministic prediction models are developed. Prevalently, time-frequency decomposition approaches are adapted to decompose the wind power time series (TS) into several less non-stationary and non-linear components, which can be predicted more precisely. However, in addition to non-stationarity and nonlinearity, wind power TS demonstrates chaotic characteristics, which reduces the predictability of the wind power TS. In this regard, a wind power generation prediction model based on considering the chaosity of the wind power generation TS is addressed. The model consists of a novel TS decomposition approach, named multi-scale singular spectrum analysis (MSSSA), and least squares support vector machines (LSSVMs). Furthermore, deterministic tidal TS prediction model is developed. In the proposed prediction model, a variant of empirical mode decomposition (EMD), which alleviates the issues associated with EMD. To further improve the prediction accuracy, the impact of different components of wind power TS with different frequencies (scales) in the spatiotemporal modeling of the wind farm is assessed. Consequently, a multiscale spatiotemporal wind power prediction is developed, using information theory-based feature selection, wavelet decomposition, and LSSVM. Power system operation problems with robust optimization and interval optimization require prediction intervals (PIs) to model the uncertainty of renewables. The advanced PI models are mainly based on non-differentiable and non-convex cost functions, which make the use of heuristic optimization for tuning a large number of unknown parameters of the prediction models inevitable. However, heuristic optimization suffers from several issues (e.g., being trapped in local optima, irreproducibility, etc.). To this end, a new wind power PI (WPPI) model, based on a bi-level optimization structure, is put forward. In the proposed WPPI, the main unknown parameters of the prediction model are globally tuned based on optimizing a convex and differentiable cost function. In line with solving the non-differentiability and non-convexity of PI formulation, an asymmetrically adaptive quantile regression (AAQR) which benefits from a linear formulation is proposed for tidal uncertainty modeling. In the prevalent QR-based PI models, for a specified reliability level, the probabilities of the quantiles are selected symmetrically with respect the median probability. However, it is found that asymmetrical and adaptive selection of quantiles with respect to median can provide more efficient PIs. To make the formulation of AAQR linear, extreme learning machine (ELM) is adapted as the prediction engine. Prevalently, the parameters of activation functions in ELM are selected randomly; while different sets of random values might result in dissimilar prediction accuracy. To this end, a heuristic optimization is devised to tune the parameters of the activation functions. Also, to enhance the accuracy of probabilistic DTLR, consideration of latent variables in DTLR prediction is assessed. It is observed that convective cooling rate can provide informative features for DTLR prediction. Also, to address the high dimensional feature space in DTLR, a DTR prediction based on deep learning and consideration of latent variables is put forward. Numerical results of this thesis are provided based on realistic data. The simulations confirm the superiority of the proposed models in comparison to traditional benchmark models, as well as the state-of-the-art models

Data Consistency for Data-Driven Smart Energy Assessment

In the smart grid era, the number of data available for different applications has increased considerably. However, data could not perfectly represent the phenomenon or process under analysis, so their usability requires a preliminary validation carried out by experts of the specific domain. The process of data gathering and transmission over the communication channels has to be verified to ensure that data are provided in a useful format, and that no external effect has impacted on the correct data to be received. Consistency of the data coming from different sources (in terms of timings and data resolution) has to be ensured and managed appropriately. Suitable procedures are needed for transforming data into knowledge in an effective way. This contribution addresses the previous aspects by highlighting a number of potential issues and the solutions in place in different power and energy system, including the generation, grid and user sides. Recent references, as well as selected historical references, are listed to support the illustration of the conceptual aspects