Predicting software project effort: A grey relational analysis based method

This is the post-print version of the final paper published in Expert Systems with Applications. The published article is available from the link below. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. Copyright @ 2011 Elsevier B.V.The inherent uncertainty of the software development process presents particular challenges for software effort prediction. We need to systematically address missing data values, outlier detection, feature subset selection and the continuous evolution of predictions as the project unfolds, and all of this in the context of data-starvation and noisy data. However, in this paper, we particularly focus on outlier detection, feature subset selection, and effort prediction at an early stage of a project. We propose a novel approach of using grey relational analysis (GRA) from grey system theory (GST), which is a recently developed system engineering theory based on the uncertainty of small samples. In this work we address some of the theoretical challenges in applying GRA to outlier detection, feature subset selection, and effort prediction, and then evaluate our approach on five publicly available industrial data sets using both stepwise regression and Analogy as benchmarks. The results are very encouraging in the sense of being comparable or better than other machine learning techniques and thus indicate that the method has considerable potential.National Natural Science Foundation of Chin

Feature weighting techniques for CBR in software effort estimation studies: A review and empirical evaluation

Context : Software effort estimation is one of the most important activities in the software development process. Unfortunately, estimates are often substantially wrong. Numerous estimation methods have been proposed including Case-based Reasoning (CBR). In order to improve CBR estimation accuracy, many researchers have proposed feature weighting techniques (FWT). Objective: Our purpose is to systematically review the empirical evidence to determine whether FWT leads to improved predictions. In addition we evaluate these techniques from the perspectives of (i) approach (ii) strengths and weaknesses (iii) performance and (iv) experimental evaluation approach including the data sets used. Method: We conducted a systematic literature review of published, refereed primary studies on FWT (2000-2014). Results: We identified 19 relevant primary studies. These reported a range of different techniques. 17 out of 19 make benchmark comparisons with standard CBR and 16 out of 17 studies report improved accuracy. Using a one-sample sign test this positive impact is significant (p = 0:0003). Conclusion: The actionable conclusion from this study is that our review of all relevant empirical evidence supports the use of FWTs and we recommend that researchers and practitioners give serious consideration to their adoption

Using the Fuzzy Grey Relational Analysis Method in Wastewater Treatment Process Selection

Due to the variety of treatment processes, the decision to choose the best treatment process is difficult. This paper describes a fuzzy grey relational analysis (GRA) method for selection of the optimal wastewater treatment process. The rating of all alternatives and the weight of each criterion is described by linguistic variables, which can be expressed in triangular fuzzy numbers. Then, a vertex method is used to calculate the distance between two triangular fuzzy numbers. According to the concept of the GRA, a fuzzy relative relational degree is defined to determine the ranking order of all alternatives by calculating the degree of fuzzy grey relational coefficient to both the fuzzy positive ideal solution (FPIS) and fuzzy negative ideal solution (FNIS) simultaneously. Furthermore, a case study is carried out and solved by both methods (i.e., GRA and fuzzy GRA) to show the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method. In the case study, five anaerobic wastewater treatment alternatives are evaluated and compared against technical, economic, environmental and administrative criteria and their sub-criteria. Finally, the related results of ranking alternatives from two methods are compared with each other's. By using both Fuzzy GRA and GRA, ABR process has been selected as the first priority and the best anaerobic process. The frequency count assessment of the Iran's industrial parks' WWTPs which have used this method and their performance, proved the priority of this method

An Empirical Evaluation of Effort Prediction Models Based on Functional Size Measures

Software development effort estimation is among the most interesting issues for project managers, since reliable estimates are at the base of good planning and project control. Several different techniques have been proposed for effort estimation, and practitioners need evidence, based on which they can choose accurate estimation methods. The work reported here aims at evaluating the accuracy of software development effort estimates that can be obtained via popular techniques, such as those using regression models and those based on analogy. The functional size and the development effort of twenty software development projects were measured, and the resulting dataset was used to derive effort estimation models and evaluate their accuracy. Our data analysis shows that estimation based on the closest analogues provides better results for most models, but very bad estimates in a few cases. To mitigate this behavior, the correction of regression toward the mean proved effective. According to the results of our analysis, it is advisable that regression to the mean correction is used when the estimates are based on closest analogues. Once corrected, the accuracy of analogy-based estimation is not substantially different from the accuracy of regression based models

Integrate the GM(1,1) and Verhulst models to predict software stage effort

This is the author's accepted manuscript. The final published article is available from the link below. Copyright @ 2009 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other users, including reprinting/ republishing this material for advertising or promotional purposes, creating new collective works for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or reuse of any copyrighted components of this work in other works.Software effort prediction clearly plays a crucial role in software project management. In keeping with more dynamic approaches to software development, it is not sufficient to only predict the whole-project effort at an early stage. Rather, the project manager must also dynamically predict the effort of different stages or activities during the software development process. This can assist the project manager to reestimate effort and adjust the project plan, thus avoiding effort or schedule overruns. This paper presents a method for software physical time stage-effort prediction based on grey models GM(1,1) and Verhulst. This method establishes models dynamically according to particular types of stage-effort sequences, and can adapt to particular development methodologies automatically by using a novel grey feedback mechanism. We evaluate the proposed method with a large-scale real-world software engineering dataset, and compare it with the linear regression method and the Kalman filter method, revealing that accuracy has been improved by at least 28% and 50%, respectively. The results indicate that the method can be effective and has considerable potential. We believe that stage predictions could be a useful complement to whole-project effort prediction methods.National Natural Science Foundation of China and the Hi-Tech Research and Development Program of Chin

EEF-CAS: An Effort Estimation Framework with Customizable Attribute Selection

Existing estimation frameworks generally provide one-size-fits-all solutions that fail to produce accurate estimates in most environments. Research has shown that the accomplishment of accurate effort estimates is a long-term process that, above all, requires the extensive collection of effort estimation data by each organization. Collected data is generally characterized by a set of attributes that are believed to affect the development effort. The attributes that most affect development effort vary widely depending on the type of product being developed and the environment in which it is being developed. Thus, any new estimation framework must offer the flexibility of customizable attribute selection. Moreover, such attributes could provide the ability to incorporate empirical evidence and expert judgment into the effort estimation framework. Finally, because software is virtual and therefore intangible, the most important software metrics are notorious for being subjective according to the experience of the estimator. Consequently, a measurement and inference system that is robust to subjectivity and uncertainty must be in place. The Effort Estimation Framework with Customizable Attribute Selection (EEF-CAS) presented in this paper has been designed with the above requirements in mind. It is accompanied with four preparation process steps that allow for any organization implementing it to establish an estimation process. This estimation process facilitates data collection, framework customization to the organization’s needs, its calibration with the organization’s data, and the capability of continual improvement. The proposed framework described in this paper was validated in a real software development organization

Efficient Indicators to Evaluate the Status of Software Development Effort Estimation inside the Organizations

Development effort is an undeniable part of the project management which considerably influences the success of project. Inaccurate and unreliable estimation of effort can easily lead to the failure of project. Due to the special specifications, accurate estimation of effort in the software projects is a vital management activity that must be carefully done to avoid from the unforeseen results. However numerous effort estimation methods have been proposed in this field, the accuracy of estimates is not satisfying and the attempts continue to improve the performance of estimation methods. Prior researches conducted in this area have focused on numerical and quantitative approaches and there are a few research works that investigate the root problems and issues behind the inaccurate effort estimation of software development effort. In this paper, a framework is proposed to evaluate and investigate the situation of an organization in terms of effort estimation. The proposed framework includes various indicators which cover the critical issues in field of software development effort estimation. Since the capabilities and shortages of organizations for effort estimation are not the same, the proposed indicators can lead to have a systematic approach in which the strengths and weaknesses of organizations in field of effort estimation are discovered.Comment: 10 page

Software Effort Estimation using Neuro Fuzzy Inference System: Past and Present

Most important reason for project failure is poor effort estimation. Software development effort estimation is needed for assigning appropriate team members for development, allocating resources for software development, binding etc. Inaccurate software estimation may lead to delay in project, over-budget or cancellation of the project. But the effort estimation models are not very efficient. In this paper, we are analyzing the new approach for estimation i.e. Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (NFIS). It is a mixture model that consolidates the components of artificial neural network with fuzzy logic for giving a better estimation