AI for social good: social media mining of migration discourse

The number of international migrants has steadily increased over the years, and it has become one of the pressing issues in today’s globalized world. Our bibliometric review of around 400 articles on Scopus platform indicates an increased interest in migration-related research in recent times but the extant research is scattered at best. AI-based opinion mining research has predominantly noted negative sentiments across various social media platforms. Additionally, we note that prior studies have mostly considered social media data in the context of a particular event or a specific context. These studies offered a nuanced view of the societal opinions regarding that specific event, but this approach might miss the forest for the trees. Hence, this dissertation makes an attempt to go beyond simplistic opinion mining to identify various latent themes of migrant-related social media discourse. The first essay draws insights from the social psychology literature to investigate two facets of Twitter discourse, i.e., perceptions about migrants and behaviors toward migrants. We identified two prevailing perceptions (i.e., sympathy and antipathy) and two dominant behaviors (i.e., solidarity and animosity) of social media users toward migrants. Additionally, this essay has also fine-tuned the binary hate speech detection task, specifically in the context of migrants, by highlighting the granular differences between the perceptual and behavioral aspects of hate speech. The second essay investigates the journey of migrants or refugees from their home to the host country. We draw insights from Gennep's seminal book, i.e., Les Rites de Passage, to identify four phases of their journey: Arrival of Refugees, Temporal stay at Asylums, Rehabilitation, and Integration of Refugees into the host nation. We consider multimodal tweets for this essay. We find that our proposed theoretical framework was relevant for the 2022 Ukrainian refugee crisis – as a use-case. Our third essay points out that a limited sample of annotated data does not provide insights regarding the prevailing societal-level opinions. Hence, this essay employs unsupervised approaches on large-scale societal datasets to explore the prevailing societal-level sentiments on YouTube platform. Specifically, it probes whether negative comments about migrants get endorsed by other users. If yes, does it depend on who the migrants are – especially if they are cultural others? To address these questions, we consider two datasets: YouTube comments before the 2022 Ukrainian refugee crisis, and during the crisis. Second dataset confirms the Cultural Us hypothesis, and our findings are inconclusive for the first dataset. Our final or fourth essay probes social integration of migrants. The first part of this essay probed the unheard and faint voices of migrants to understand their struggle to settle down in the host economy. The second part of this chapter explored the viability of social media platforms as a viable alternative to expensive commercial job portals for vulnerable migrants. Finally, in our concluding chapter, we elucidated the potential of explainable AI, and briefly pointed out the inherent biases of transformer-based models in the context of migrant-related discourse. To sum up, the importance of migration was recognized as one of the essential topics in the United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Thus, this dissertation has attempted to make an incremental contribution to the AI for Social Good discourse

Essays on Public Economics and Public Policy Evaluation – Methods and Applications

[eng] Economic policies and institutional design and decision-making vary greatly accross countries. Germany, the US and Canada, are federal states, where decision-making and economic policies are highly decentralized, while France and Greece are highly unitary countries. Belgium has had the two largest government formation deadlocks in Europe in the last 20 years, while other countries such as Portugal or Ireland have experienced none. During the COVID-19 crisis, some countries, like New Zealand, applied lockdowns with an incidence rate of 20 cases per milion inhabitants, while others like Spain, delayer their response until the incidence rate was higher than 130 cases per million Do differences in institutional design lead to differences in economic policies? Can these differences be explained? Is the agility of government decision-making influenced by common patterns across countries? The aim of my thesis is to contribute to the existing literature on public policy evaluation, with a particular focus on the role of institutions, providing new methodological, theoretical, and empirical results, to provide answers to questions such as the ones stated before. Five studies are presented in the thesis. In the first study, I analyze one of the most seminals questions that could be asked about governments and economic outcomes: Do government formation deadlocks affect the economy in the short term? From the methodological point of view, I develop a proposal to improve current methodologies to evaluate causal effects on quasi-experimental designs; concretely, the Synthetic Control Method. I illustrate the main advantages of the proposal evaluating the causal economic effects of the ten-month-long government formation impasse in Spain, after the December 2015 elections, as well as reproducing two previous studies: the impact of German reunification (analyzed in Abadie et al. 2015) and the effect of tobacco control programs in California (Abadie et al. 2010). In line with the results obtained by Albalate and Bel (2020) for the 18-month government formation deadlock in Belgium, my estimates indicate that the growth rate in Spain was not affected by the government deadlock, ruling out any damage to the economy attributable to the institutional impasse. The second and third studies focus on how governments decide in a context of high uncertainty and different degrees of information. Concretely, I build a theoretical model to assess the agility of government response to the COVID pandemic and evaluate the model empirically using data from OCDE and European countries. I find solid evidence that during the first outbreak, in a context of incomplete information, the agility of policy response was highly conditioned by a cost-benefit analysis where the perceived healthcare capacity to deal with the outbreak, and the associated economic costs of lockdown measures, significantly delayed the response. Institution design also played a role: federal states reacted faster than unitary ones. Higher competition in multilevel systems with collaborative governance between different levels of government and non-state institutions - (Scavo, Kearne, and Kilroy, 2008; Schwartz and Yen, 2017; Downey and Myers, 2020; Huang, 2020) provided incentives for more agile and effective responses. However, federal states could be dysfunctional in terms of internal coordination and suffer from high inequality in terms of agility within themselves. For the concrete case of the US, I find that Republican-controlled states reacted later and implemented softer contingency measures, which were associated with higher growth in the number of COVID-19 cases (Hallas et al., 2020; Shvetsova et al., 2022). The highly polarized context of the US provided incentives for Republican governors to align with President Trump’s preferred policy, which was to avoid lockdowns. These incentives vanished during the vaccination process, when information about the severity of COVID-19 was complete, and governors, no matter whether Republicans or Democrats, implemented the roll-out of the vaccination program with a similar level of agility. In the fourth paper, I suggest a new approach to assess the effect of institutional and policy developments (i.e. capital city) on economic growth that distort the natural equilibrium of the geographical distribution of the labor market. I propose a theoretical model of the way in which features of geography and nature can account for population density and distribution within a country. The model is empirically examined using data from comparable European regions. This allows us to detect deviations produced by the forces of human action, led mainly by institutions, and to evaluate the consequences in terms of relative economic performance. The results suggest that deviating from nature’s outcomes has a significant negative effect on economic growth and regional convergence. Hence, societies that choose to exploit the opportunities of the best locations, according to the natural endowment, rather than promoting a different distribution of the population across regions by means of institutional intervention, achieve better economic performance. In the last study, we focus on the most relevant government expenditure until the twentieth century: military expenditure. We examine the effects of military and trade alliances in military expenditure. We develop a theoretical model to understand why these alliances could influence military expenditure. In short, when countries build military and trade alliances with military leaders such as the US, they make themselves more valuable to the leader, and hence increase the likelihood of the leader providing military aid in case of an agression. This increases the military costs of a potential agresor, reduces the probability of war and let the non-leader country reduce its military expenditure. To empirically test the hypothesis derived from the model we employ data of 138 countries for the period 1996-2020. Our results show that trade relation with a military leader is a highly significant driver of military expenditure. For each percentage point in US GDP in trade between a certain country and the US, the military expenditure of the country reduces 0.5 percentage points. Moreover, when the trade balance is particularly beneficial for the US, the effect is even larger

ECOLOGY OF TWO REINTRODUCED BLACK BEAR POPULATIONS IN THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS

Reintroduced populations are vulnerable to demographic and environmental stochasticity, deleterious genetic effects, and reduced population fitness, all of which can increase extinction probability. Population viability is principle to determining the status of reintroduced populations and for guiding management decisions. To attempt to reestablish black bear (Ursus americanus) populations in the central Appalachians, two reintroductions using small founder groups occurred during the 1990s in the Big South Fork area along the Kentucky-Tennessee border (BSF) and in the Jefferson National Forest along the Kentucky-Virginia border (KVP). My objectives were to estimate demographic and genetic parameters, and to evaluate long-term viability and reintroduction success for the KVP and BSF black bear populations. The KVP grew rapidly to 482 (317–751) bears with a significantly female-biased sex ratio by 2013. Spatially explicit capture-recapture models suggested KVP recolonization may continue to the southwest and northeast along linear mountain ridges. Based on radio-monitoring during 2010–2014, high adult female survival and moderate mean litter sizes were estimated in both populations. All mortality was anthropogenic and males were 4.13 times more likely to die than females. Two-cub litters were most probable in the BSF, whereas the KVP had similar probabilities of two- and three-cub litters. The average annual mortality that occurred during the study period was sustainable and allowed for moderate growth (λKVP = 1.10; λBSF = 1.13). Continued mortality at the higher 2015 rate, however, resulted in probabilities of ≥25% population decline over 10 years of 0.52–0.53 and 0.97–0.98 in the KVP and BSF, respectively. Rapid population growth during the 13–17 years post-reintroduction and the overlapping generations inherent to bears retained genetic diversity. Cumulative findings indicated both reintroductions were successful at establishing viable, self-sustaining populations over the long-term. The anthropogenic mortality rate during 2015, if sustained, could cause precipitous declines in these populations. Reimplementation of annual vital rate monitoring and conservative harvests should be considered. Connectivity may be established between these two reintroduced black bear populations if growth and recolonization continue

The dynamics of international migration and settlement in Europe: a state of the art

A fundamental issue in society today, migration has been undergoing a new dynamic transformation, calling for new policy approaches. This new dynamic is not yet understood clearly, let alone that adequate policy answers for 'the managing' of these new migration processes and the consequences for receiving and sending societies are within. This comprehensive overview of migration research conducted throughout the IMISCoe network of European research analyses the influx of various types of immigrants in Western Europe post World War II, mostly to large cities, as well as the reactions of the native populations and governments to the changes and pressures brought about by immigration

Study on the gender dimension of trafficking in human beings

The purpose of this study is to contribute to the identification and understanding of what it means to be ‘taking into account the gender perspective, to strengthen the prevention of this crime and protection of the victims there-of’, as required in Article 1 of European Union (EU) Directive 2011/36/EU on Preventing and Combating Trafficking in Human Beings and Protecting its Victims in the context of the EU Strategy (COM(2012) 286 final) Towards the Eradication of Trafficking in Human Beings. The study contributes to Priority E Action 2 of the Strategy, which states that ‘the Commission will develop knowledge on the gender dimensions of human trafficking, including the gender consequences of the various forms of trafficking and potential differences in the vulnerability of men and women to victimisation and its impact on them.’ Its specific objectives and tasks are to address: the ‘gender dimension of vulnerability, recruitment, and victimisation’; ‘gender issues related to traffickers and to those creating demand’; and ‘an examination of law and policy responses on trafficking in human beings from a gender perspective’. The study addresses the five priorities of the EU Strategy: identifying, protecting, and assisting victims of traf-ficking; stepping up the prevention of trafficking in human beings; better law enforcement; enhanced coordination and cooperation among key actors and policy coherence; and increased knowledge of an effective response to emerging concerns. This study, according to its terms of reference, aims to look specifically at the gender dimension of trafficking for the purpose of sexual exploitation. This follows evidence from statistical data from Eurostat, as well as da-ta from The European Police Office (Europol) and the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), accord-ing to which the most reported form of exploitation of victims is that of sexual exploitation and its strong gen-der dimension (96 % women and girls). It further addresses recommendations addressed in the Resolution of the European Parliament of 26 February 2014 on sexual exploitation and prostitution and its impact on gender equality (2013/2103(INI)) urging the European Commission to evaluate the impact that the European legal frame-work designed to eliminate trafficking for sexual exploitation has had to date and to undertake further research on patterns of prostitution, on human trafficking for the purpose of sexual exploitation and on the increased lev-el of sex tourism in the EU, with particular reference to minors, and to promote the exchange of best practices among the Member States. The study identifies and draws on EU law and policy competence in gender equality in its identification of the gen-der dimensions of trafficking. The gender dimensions are clustered into five issues: gender specificity and equal treatment; gender expertise, gender balance in decision-making and gender mainstreaming; the relationship be-tween prostitution and trafficking; gendered policy fields and strategic priorities; gendered systems and the the-ory of prevention

Mathematical Fuzzy Logic in the Emerging Fields of Engineering, Finance, and Computer Sciences

Mathematical fuzzy logic (MFL) specifically targets many-valued logic and has significantly contributed to the logical foundations of fuzzy set theory (FST). It explores the computational and philosophical rationale behind the uncertainty due to imprecision in the backdrop of traditional mathematical logic. Since uncertainty is present in almost every real-world application, it is essential to develop novel approaches and tools for efficient processing. This book is the collection of the publications in the Special Issue “Mathematical Fuzzy Logic in the Emerging Fields of Engineering, Finance, and Computer Sciences”, which aims to cover theoretical and practical aspects of MFL and FST. Specifically, this book addresses several problems, such as:- Industrial optimization problems- Multi-criteria decision-making- Financial forecasting problems- Image processing- Educational data mining- Explainable artificial intelligence, etc

The Dynamics of International Migration and Settlement in Europe

A fundamental issue in society today, migration has been undergoing a new dynamic transformation, calling for new policy approaches. This new dynamic is not yet understood clearly, let alone that adequate policy answers for 'the managing' of these new migration processes and the consequences for receiving and sending societies are within. This comprehensive overview of migration research conducted throughout the IMISCoe network of European research analyses the influx of various types of immigrants in Western Europe post World War II, mostly to large cities, as well as the reactions of the native populations and governments to the changes and pressures brought about by immigration

U.S. Commission on Immigration Reform

The U.S. Commission on Immigration Reform was created by Congress to assess U.S. immigration policy and make recommendations regarding its implementation and effects. Mandated in the Immigration Act of 1990 to submit an interim report in 1994 and a final report in 1997, the Commission has undertaken public hearings, fact-finding missions, and expert consultations to identify the major immigration-related issues facing the United States today.LBJ School of Public Affair

Unmet goals of tracking: within-track heterogeneity of students' expectations for

Educational systems are often characterized by some form(s) of ability grouping, like tracking. Although substantial variation in the implementation of these practices exists, it is always the aim to improve teaching efficiency by creating homogeneous groups of students in terms of capabilities and performances as well as expected pathways. If students’ expected pathways (university, graduate school, or working) are in line with the goals of tracking, one might presume that these expectations are rather homogeneous within tracks and heterogeneous between tracks. In Flanders (the northern region of Belgium), the educational system consists of four tracks. Many students start out in the most prestigious, academic track. If they fail to gain the necessary credentials, they move to the less esteemed technical and vocational tracks. Therefore, the educational system has been called a 'cascade system'. We presume that this cascade system creates homogeneous expectations in the academic track, though heterogeneous expectations in the technical and vocational tracks. We use data from the International Study of City Youth (ISCY), gathered during the 2013-2014 school year from 2354 pupils of the tenth grade across 30 secondary schools in the city of Ghent, Flanders. Preliminary results suggest that the technical and vocational tracks show more heterogeneity in student’s expectations than the academic track. If tracking does not fulfill the desired goals in some tracks, tracking practices should be questioned as tracking occurs along social and ethnic lines, causing social inequality

Assessment of plastics in the National Trust: a case study at Mr Straw's House

The National Trust is a charity that cares for over 300 publically accessible historic buildings and their contents across England, Wales and Northern Ireland. There have been few previous studies on preservation of plastics within National Trust collections, which form a significant part of the more modern collections of objects. This paper describes the design of an assessment system which was successfully trialled at Mr Straws House, a National Trust property in Worksop, UK. This system can now be used for future plastic surveys at other National Trust properties. In addition, the survey gave valuable information about the state of the collection, demonstrating that the plastics that are deteriorating are those that are known to be vulnerable, namely cellulose nitrate/acetate, PVC and rubber. Verifying this knowledge of the most vulnerable plastics enables us to recommend to properties across National Trust that these types should be seen as a priority for correct storage and in-depth recording