Third Revolution Digital Technology in Disaster Early Warning

Networking societies with electronic based technologies can change social morphology, where key social structures and activities are organized around electronically processed information networks. The application of information and communications technologies (ICT) has been shown to have a positive impact across the emergency or disaster lifecycle. For example, utility of mobile, internet and social network technology, commercial and amateur radio networks, television and video networks and open access technologies for processing data and distributing information can be highlighted. Early warning is the key function during an emergency. Early warning system is an interrelated set of hazard warning, risk assessment, communication and preparedness activities that enable individuals, communities, businesses and others to take timely action to reduce their risks. Third revolution digital technology with semantic features such as standard protocols can facilitate standard data exchange therefore proactive decision making. As a result, people belong to any given hierarchy can access the information simultaneously and make decisions on their own challenging the traditional power relations. Within this context, this paper attempts to explore the use of third revolution digital technology for improving early warning

The Asian Tsunami: An urgent case for improved government information systems and management

This discussion paper provides a timely consideration of how regional governments in Asia and other national governments around the world collect, manage, and share information in what is becoming an increasingly global community. The paper addresses the socio-technical perspective of government information systems and management, and draws on several public reports, media articles, and expert opinions published in the aftermath of the Asian tsunami of 26 December 2004. On the basis of the published material, the paper observes how critical early warning information was handled by government authorities in the hours before the tsunami wave strike, discusses the availability of technological solutions that can provide earthquake and tsunami warning information, and poses that government bureaucracies and human relations form the weakest link in the information chain. The type of early warning information system that might be created to avoid another loss of life, suggested improvements to inter-government information sharing and communications, and the emerging requirement for earthquake and tsunami information dissemination and education are also discussed. The paper concludes with a research agenda for government warning information systems and management

The Capacity Building programmes of GITEWS – visions, goals, lessons learned, and re-iterated needs and demands

It was envisioned that the framework of the German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) should achieve an integral architecture and overarching technical design of an end-to-end tsunami early warning system (TEWS). In order to achieve this ambitious goal on a national and local level, a tailored set of capacity building measures has been started and implemented. The programme was meant and designed to meet requirements and urgent needs considering awareness raising campaigns, technical trainings and higher level education programs. These components have been integrated as complementary modules in order to ensure facilitating the early warning system to be operated, maintained and improved, and that institutions and people in coastal areas will respond adequately and timely in case of future tsunamis. Remarkable progress has been accomplished as well as programs and campaigns are being implemented in regard to a sustainable capacity development conducted by national institutions in Indonesia. Yet, local administrative and preparedness efforts on the Indonesian coastlines are still underdeveloped. This stems from the fact of missing links towards sustainable coastal zone management schemes on a broad local level. Yet, the demand and urgent need for an adequate and integrated disaster risk reduction and management addressing also other hazards in the region of interest is (still) substantial. Given the tragic loss of life and severe damages resulting from the December 2004 tsunami and recent series of severe earthquakes, the need for urgent mitigating action in the imperilled coastal regions of Sumatra and Java remains extremely high. The conceptual Capacity Building framework, its anticipated goals in the beginning of the project and, lately, the finally achieved objectives are promising. A significant contribution for mainstreaming scientific approaches and transfer methodological disaster risk reduction attempts towards other regions exposed to coastal hazards is still pending. Local authorities and researchers in tentative affected regions are now trained and enabled to disseminate and apply their knowledge and planning experience to other coastal regions in the area to help facilitating and multiplying effective disaster management plans and strategies. Yet, the Capacity Building framework within GITEWS also elucidated gaps in the early warning chain so that updated and to some extent re-iterated needs and demands in Capacity Building programs in any future research or development cooperation project are presented and discussed

A classification of mitigation strategies for natural hazards: implications for the understanding of interactions between mitigation strategies

The unexpectedly poor performances of complex mitigation systems in recent natural disasters demonstrate the need to reexamine mitigation system functionality, especially those combining multiple mitigation strategies. A systematic classification of mitigation strategies is presented as a basis for understanding how different types of strategy within an overall mitigation system can interfere destructively, to reduce the effectiveness of the system as a whole. We divide mitigation strategies into three classes according to the timing of the actions that they prescribe. Permanent mitigation strategies prescribe actions such as construction of tsunami barriers or land-use restrictions: they are frequently both costly and “brittle” in that the actions work up to a design limit of hazard intensity or magnitude and then fail. Responsive mitigation strategies prescribe actions after a hazard source event has occurred, such as evacuations, that rely on capacities to detect and quantify hazard events and to transmit warnings fast enough to enable at risk populations to decide and act effectively. Anticipatory mitigation strategies prescribe use of the interpretation of precursors to hazard source events as a basis for precautionary actions, but challenges arise from uncertainties in hazard behaviour. The NE Japan tsunami mitigation system and its performance in the 2011 Tohoku disaster provide examples of interactions between mitigation strategies. We propose that the classification presented here would enable consideration of how the addition of a new strategy to a mitigation system would affect the performance of existing strategies within that system, and furthermore aid the design of integrated mitigation systems

The role of science in physical natural hazard assessment : report to the UK Government by the Natural Hazard Working Group

Following the tragic Asian tsunami on 26 December 2004, the Prime Minister asked the Government’s Chief Scientific Adviser, Sir David King, to convene a group of experts (the Natural Hazard Working Group) to advise on the mechanisms that could and should be established for the detection and early warning of global physical natural hazards. 2. The Group was asked to examine physical hazards which have high global or regional impact and for which an appropriate early warning system could be put in place. It was also asked to consider the global natural hazard frameworks currently in place and under development and their effectiveness in using scientific evidence; to consider whether there is an existing appropriate international body to pull together the international science community to advise governments on the systems that need to be put in place, and to advise on research needed to fill current gaps in knowledge. The Group was asked to make recommendations on whether a new body was needed, or whether other arrangements would be more effective

Tsunami risk communication and management: Contemporary gaps and challenges

Very large tsunamis are associated with low probabilities of occurrence. In many parts of the world, these events have usually occurred in a distant time in the past. As a result, there is low risk perception and a lack of collective memories, making tsunami risk communication both challenging and complex. Furthermore, immense challenges lie ahead as population and risk exposure continue to increase in coastal areas. Through the last decades, tsunamis have caught coastal populations off-guard, providing evidence of lack of preparedness. Recent tsunamis, such as the Indian Ocean Tsunami in 2004, 2011 Tohoku and 2018 Palu, have shaped the way tsunami risk is perceived and acted upon. Based on lessons learned from a selection of past tsunami events, this paper aims to review the existing body of knowledge and the current challenges in tsunami risk communication, and to identify the gaps in the tsunami risk management methodologies. The important lessons provided by the past events call for strengthening community resilience and improvement in risk-informed actions and policy measures. This paper shows that research efforts related to tsunami risk communication remain fragmented. The analysis of tsunami risk together with a thorough understanding of risk communication gaps and challenges is indispensable towards developing and deploying comprehensive disaster risk reduction measures. Moving from a broad and interdisciplinary perspective, the paper suggests that probabilistic hazard and risk assessments could potentially contribute towards better science communication and improved planning and implementation of risk mitigation measures

Tsunami risk communication and management: Contemporary gaps and challenges

Very large tsunamis are associated with low probabilities of occurrence. In many parts of the world, these events have usually occurred in a distant time in the past. As a result, there is low risk perception and a lack of collective memories, making tsunami risk communication both challenging and complex. Furthermore, immense challenges lie ahead as population and risk exposure continue to increase in coastal areas. Through the last decades, tsunamis have caught coastal populations off-guard, providing evidence of lack of preparedness. Recent tsunamis, such as the Indian Ocean Tsunami in 2004, 2011 Tohoku and 2018 Palu, have shaped the way tsunami risk is perceived and acted upon. Based on lessons learned from a selection of past tsunami events, this paper aims to review the existing body of knowledge and the current challenges in tsunami risk communication, and to identify the gaps in the tsunami risk management methodologies. The important lessons provided by the past events call for strengthening community resilience and improvement in risk-informed actions and policy measures. This paper shows that research efforts related to tsunami risk communication remain fragmented. The analysis of tsunami risk together with a thorough understanding of risk communication gaps and challenges is indispensable towards developing and deploying comprehensive disaster risk reduction measures. Moving from a broad and interdisciplinary perspective, the paper suggests that probabilistic hazard and risk assessments could potentially contribute towards better science communication and improved planning and implementation of risk mitigation measures

Assessing People´s Early Warning Response Capability to Inform Urban Planning Interventions to Reduce Vulnerability to Tsunamis : Case Study of Padang City, Indonesia

In the last decade, more emphasis is given on the human aspect of early warning or the attribute of “people-centered” early warning systems. This study seeks to better understand the specific conditions that shape people´s vulnerability in relation to their tsunami early warning response capability. The study lays emphasis on the bottlenecks within social conditions, issues of perception, and their linkages with urban evacuation spatial and infrastructure requirements. The study is based on an in-depth case study of the coastal city of Padang, Indonesia. Founded on literature study on vulnerability and early warning concepts, a conceptual study was developed. Here, vulnerability was defined as “the conditions which influence the level of exposure and capability of people to respond to the warning and conduct appropriate evacuation, and in the long term, to change those conditions and enhance their response capability”. The study is composed of three main assessment blocks: i) current spatial hotspots and bottlenecks within social conditions assessments; ii) assessment of perception issues related with on-going or planned interventions; and iii) assessment of urban planning´s role and influence on vulnerability and people´s response capability. The first assessment block consists of spatial and temporal distribution of various social groups in the exposed areas (dynamic exposure); their access to safe places; their access to warning; and their evacuation behaviour. The second assessment block examines various cognitive factors connected with objective knowledge as well as socio-psychological factors pertaining to vulnerability reduction. These are intention to evacuate (reactive action) and intention to support improvement of evacuation infrastructure and facilities (proactive action). Moreover, perceptions connected with challenges of possible relocation as well as overall tsunami preparedness are explored. The third assessment block explores the urban planning´s role and interventions linked with various response capability components. In order to assess different thematic areas, an interdisciplinary approach is required, using engineering and social behavioural sciences approaches. Therefore, the combination of qualitative and quantitative data collection and analysis methods is used. The results show that Padang´s current response capability varies according to its spatial and infrastructure setting as well as people´s socio-economic characteristics. Evacuation facilities and infrastructure were still lacking and their utilization was influenced by social conditions of the people. This implied a significant role for urban planning which needs to take into account various social groups´ specific needs while incorporating the importance of strategic risk communication within various interventions. The assessment needs to be integrated in the overall urban planning process and may provide guidance in finding the balance between long-term exposure reduction in dangerous areas and additional protection measures for mass evacuation

Near-field tsunami hazard map Padang, West Sumatra: Utilizing high resolution geospatial data and reseasonable source scenarios

Near-field tsunami propagation both in shallow water environments and bore-like wave propagation on land are conducted in this study to obtain fundamental knowledge on the tsunami hazard potential in the city of Padang, Western Sumatra, Republic of Indonesia. As the region proves a huge seismic moment deficit which has progressively accumulated since the last recorded major earthquakes in 1797 and 1833, this investigation focuses on most reasonable seismic sources and possibly triggered near-shore tsunamis in order to develop upgraded disaster mitigations programs in this densely-populated urban agglomeration located on the western shore of Sumatra Island. Observations from continuous Global Positioning Satellite (cGPS) systems and supplementary coral growth studies confirm a much greater probability of occurrence that a major earthquake and subsequent tsunami are likely to strike the region in the near future. Newly surveyed and processed sets of geodata have been collected and used to progress most plausible rupture scenarios to approximate the extent and magnitudes of a further earthquake. Based upon this novel understanding, the present analysis applies two hydronumerical codes to simulate most probable tsunami run-up and subsequent inundations in the city of Padang in very fine resolution. Run-up heights and flow-depths are determined stemming from these most plausible rupture scenarios. Evaluation of outcome and performance of both numerical tools regarding impacts of surge flow and bore-like wave fronts encountering the coast and inundating the city are thoroughly carried out. Results are discussed not only for further scientific purposes, i.e. benchmark tests, but also to disseminate main findings to responsible authorities in Padang with the objective to distribute the most probable dataset of plausible tsunami inundations as well as to address valuable insights and knowledge for effective counter measures, i.e. evacuation routes and shelter building. Following evacuation simulations based on rational assumptions and simplifications reveal a most alerting result as about 265.000 people are living in the highly exposed potential tsunami inundation area in the city of Padang of which more than 95.000 people will need more than 30 min. to evacuate to safe areas.DFGBMB