Challenges in Complex Systems Science

FuturICT foundations are social science, complex systems science, and ICT. The main concerns and challenges in the science of complex systems in the context of FuturICT are laid out in this paper with special emphasis on the Complex Systems route to Social Sciences. This include complex systems having: many heterogeneous interacting parts; multiple scales; complicated transition laws; unexpected or unpredicted emergence; sensitive dependence on initial conditions; path-dependent dynamics; networked hierarchical connectivities; interaction of autonomous agents; self-organisation; non-equilibrium dynamics; combinatorial explosion; adaptivity to changing environments; co-evolving subsystems; ill-defined boundaries; and multilevel dynamics. In this context, science is seen as the process of abstracting the dynamics of systems from data. This presents many challenges including: data gathering by large-scale experiment, participatory sensing and social computation, managing huge distributed dynamic and heterogeneous databases; moving from data to dynamical models, going beyond correlations to cause-effect relationships, understanding the relationship between simple and comprehensive models with appropriate choices of variables, ensemble modeling and data assimilation, modeling systems of systems of systems with many levels between micro and macro; and formulating new approaches to prediction, forecasting, and risk, especially in systems that can reflect on and change their behaviour in response to predictions, and systems whose apparently predictable behaviour is disrupted by apparently unpredictable rare or extreme events. These challenges are part of the FuturICT agenda

Libro Blanco de los Sistemas Complejos Socio-tecnológicos

La Red SocioComplex está formada por la Universitat de Barcelona (coordinación), Fundación IMDEA Networks, Instituto de Física Interdisciplinar y Sistemas Complejos (CSIC-Universitat Illes Balears), Universidad de Burgos, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Universitat de València y Universidad de Zaragoza - Instituto de Biocomputación y Física de los Sistemas Complejos.Este libro blanco analiza por primera vez las principales fuerzas de la investigación española en ciencias de la complejidad en el contexto de los sistemas socio-tecnológicos.El Libro Blanco de los Sistemas Complejos Socio-tecnológicos forma parte del conjunto de acciones realizadas por la red temática SocioComplex FIS2015-71795-REDT financiada por parte del Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad – Agencia Estatal de Investigación y del Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (FEDER)

Cyber Places, Crime Patterns, and Cybercrime Prevention: An Environmental Criminology and Crime Analysis approach through Data Science

For years, academics have examined the potential usefulness of traditional criminological theories to explain and prevent cybercrime. Some analytical frameworks from Environmental Criminology and Crime Analysis (ECCA), such as the Routine Activities Approach and Situational Crime Prevention, are frequently used in theoretical and empirical research for this purpose. These efforts have led to a better understanding of how crime opportunities are generated in cyberspace, thus contributing to advancing the discipline. However, with a few exceptions, other ECCA analytical frameworks — especially those based on the idea of geographical place— have been largely ignored. The limited attention devoted to ECCA from a global perspective means its true potential to prevent cybercrime has remained unknown to date. In this thesis we aim to overcome this geographical gap in order to show the potential of some of the essential concepts that underpin the ECCA approach, such as places and crime patterns, to analyse and prevent four crimes committed in cyberspace. To this end, this dissertation is structured in two phases: firstly, a proposal for the transposition of ECCA's fundamental propositions to cyberspace; and secondly, deriving from this approach some hypotheses are contrasted in four empirical studies through Data Science. The first study contrasts a number of premises of repeat victimization in a sample of more than nine million self-reported website defacements. The second examines the precipitators of crime at cyber places where allegedly fixed match results are advertised and the hyperlinked network they form. The third explores the situational contexts where repeated online harassment occurs among a sample of non-university students. And the fourth builds two metadata-driven machine learning models to detect online hate speech in a sample of Twitter messages collected after a terrorist attack. General results show (1) that cybercrimes are not randomly distributed in space, time, or among people; and (2) that the environmental features of the cyber places where they occur determine the emergence of crime opportunities. Overall, we conclude that the ECCA approach and, in particular, its place-based analytical frameworks can also be valid for analysing and preventing crime in cyberspace. We anticipate that this work can guide future research in this area including: the design of secure online environments, the allocation of preventive resources to high-risk cyber places, and the implementation of new evidence- based situational prevention measure

Actes de la conférence " Aux frontières de l'urbain. Petites villes du monde : émergence, croissance, rôle économique et social, intégration territoriale, gouvernance " <br> Conference Proceedings "At the Frontiers of Urban Space. Small towns of the world: emergence, growth, economic and social role, territorial integration, governance"

Sous la Direction de François Moriconi-Ebrard, Catherine Chatel et Julien Bordagi Éditeur : UMR ESPACE - Avignon, Case 19, 74 rue Louis Pasteur, 84029 Avignon Cedex Collection : Actes Avignon - ISBN : 978‐2‐9105‐4509‐1Publication collective. La conférence internationale " Aux frontières de l'urbain " s'est déroulée à l'Université d'Avignon et des Pays de Vaucluse du 22 au 24 janvier 2014. Elle a été organisée à l'initiative d'un groupe de chercheurs de l'UMR 7300 ESPACE spécialistes de la ville et des dynamiques d'urbanisation dans le monde. Travaillant à partir de la base de données mondiale e-Geopolis décrivant l'évolution de la population des agglomérations urbaines à l'époque contemporaine et développWhen we speak of cities, the attention of researchers, the media, and institutions is traditionally focused on large metropoles. Yet in reality, half the urban population of the world lives in hundreds of small and medium-sized cities (Moriconi-Ebrard, 1994). These agglomerations play a key role in urban growth. They have heterogeneous dynamics and profiles that diverge from what is observed in metro cities. Therefore, studies of the base of the urban hierarchy enrich and deepen the urban concept as a whole. Defining these agglomerations also requires the testing of categories of space which go beyond a simple, and increasingly problematic, urban-rural dichotomy. What criteria should define the threshold between these spaces? Can we speak of an "in-between" territory? In terms of process, small cities highlight the different stages of urban growth: genesis, development, mutation, and regression. In the context of fieldwork, researchers' observations are faced with the arbitrary official definition of urban areas, which differ from one country to the next. This contributes to the fuzziness of objective boundaries between "small towns" and villages. The change of the status of small agglomerations can lead to modifications in fiscal, environmental and urban rules. Access to urban status is a major issue for the development of a locality and territory (Giraut, 2005). What is the impact of urban policies on such towns? Is it enough to proclaim that a locality is "urban"? Are there specific governance issues that come with the small and medium town? Are these issues at the basis of original proposals concerning country planning? In a global marketplace, where agglomeration economies are prioritized, metro cities seem to be the only competitive spaces. In reality however, small towns are often spaces of innovation capable of taking their own place in wider global networks (Bairoch, 1984). What are the major assets of such towns compared with larger metro cities? How do they face the major spatial issues of a society: mobility, land access and competition, exploitation of local resources, procurement, and environmental protection? These issues are dependent on forms of spatial organisation, which are themselves the result of intense processes of concentration and dispersion. Do clusters, urban corridors and dispersed settlements represent specific organisational types of such intermediary, "in-between" spaces?Lorsqu'on évoque " la " ville, l'attention des médias, des chercheurs et des institutions se concentre traditionnellement sur quelques métropoles mondiales. Or, en réalité, la moitié de la population urbaine de la planète vit dans des villes petites et moyennes qui se comptent en milliers (Moriconi-Ebrard, 1994). Ces agglomérations ont un rôle moteur dans la croissance, tandis qu'elles présentent des profils et des dynamiques hétérogènes qui s'écartent de ce que l'on observe dans les métropoles (Denis, 2012). Dès lors leur étude vient enrichir et approfondir le concept d'urbain. Chercher à définir ces villes, c'est aussi éprouver les catégories d'espace et aller au-delà d'une simple dichotomie urbain/rural de plus en plus remise en cause. Quels critères permettraient de définir un seuil entre ces espaces ? Peut-on parler de territoire de l'entre-deux ? En termes de processus, les petites villes questionnent ainsi les différentes étapes de la croissance urbaine : genèse, développement, mutation, régression. Sur le terrain, l'observation est confrontée à l'arbitraire des définitions officielles de l'urbain qui diffèrent d'un pays à l'autre, contribuant à renforcer le flou des limites objectives entre " petite ville " et " village ". Le changement de statut des villes peut entrainer un changement de la fiscalité, de règles environnementales et d'urbanisme : l'accès au statut urbain constitue ainsi un enjeu majeur pour le développement d'une localité et du territoire (Giraut, 2005). Quel est l'impact des politiques publiques urbaines sur ces villes ? Suffit-il de déclarer une localité " urbaine " pour qu'elle le soit ? Les petites et moyennes villes posent-elles des problèmes de gouvernance particuliers ou bien sont-elles à l'origine de propositions originales en matière d'aménagement du territoire ? Dans un marché globalisé où les économies d'agglomération sont mises en avant, les métropoles semblent constituer les seuls espaces compétitifs. Or, les petites villes ont souvent été des lieux d'innovation capables de s'insérer directement dans des réseaux mondiaux (Bairoch, 1984). Quels sont leurs atouts face aux grandes mégapoles ? Comment se positionnement-elles face aux enjeux territoriaux majeurs de nos sociétés : mobilité, accès à la terre, compétition foncière, exploitation des ressources locales, approvisionnement, protection de l'environnement. Ces enjeux dépendant clairement des formes d'organisation spatiale qui sont le résultat de processus de concentration plus ou moins intenses : clusters, corridors urbains, semis dispersés représentent-ils des types d'organisations spécifiques à ces villes de l'entre-deux