153,378 research outputs found
Spatial interactions in agent-based modeling
Agent Based Modeling (ABM) has become a widespread approach to model complex
interactions. In this chapter after briefly summarizing some features of ABM
the different approaches in modeling spatial interactions are discussed.
It is stressed that agents can interact either indirectly through a shared
environment and/or directly with each other. In such an approach, higher-order
variables such as commodity prices, population dynamics or even institutions,
are not exogenously specified but instead are seen as the results of
interactions. It is highlighted in the chapter that the understanding of
patterns emerging from such spatial interaction between agents is a key problem
as much as their description through analytical or simulation means.
The chapter reviews different approaches for modeling agents' behavior,
taking into account either explicit spatial (lattice based) structures or
networks. Some emphasis is placed on recent ABM as applied to the description
of the dynamics of the geographical distribution of economic activities, - out
of equilibrium. The Eurace@Unibi Model, an agent-based macroeconomic model with
spatial structure, is used to illustrate the potential of such an approach for
spatial policy analysis.Comment: 26 pages, 5 figures, 105 references; a chapter prepared for the book
"Complexity and Geographical Economics - Topics and Tools", P. Commendatore,
S.S. Kayam and I. Kubin, Eds. (Springer, in press, 2014
Early Warning Analysis for Social Diffusion Events
There is considerable interest in developing predictive capabilities for
social diffusion processes, for instance to permit early identification of
emerging contentious situations, rapid detection of disease outbreaks, or
accurate forecasting of the ultimate reach of potentially viral ideas or
behaviors. This paper proposes a new approach to this predictive analytics
problem, in which analysis of meso-scale network dynamics is leveraged to
generate useful predictions for complex social phenomena. We begin by deriving
a stochastic hybrid dynamical systems (S-HDS) model for diffusion processes
taking place over social networks with realistic topologies; this modeling
approach is inspired by recent work in biology demonstrating that S-HDS offer a
useful mathematical formalism with which to represent complex, multi-scale
biological network dynamics. We then perform formal stochastic reachability
analysis with this S-HDS model and conclude that the outcomes of social
diffusion processes may depend crucially upon the way the early dynamics of the
process interacts with the underlying network's community structure and
core-periphery structure. This theoretical finding provides the foundations for
developing a machine learning algorithm that enables accurate early warning
analysis for social diffusion events. The utility of the warning algorithm, and
the power of network-based predictive metrics, are demonstrated through an
empirical investigation of the propagation of political memes over social media
networks. Additionally, we illustrate the potential of the approach for
security informatics applications through case studies involving early warning
analysis of large-scale protests events and politically-motivated cyber
attacks
The Impact of Network Flows on Community Formation in Models of Opinion Dynamics
We study dynamics of opinion formation in a network of coupled agents. As the
network evolves to a steady state, opinions of agents within the same community
converge faster than those of other agents. This framework allows us to study
how network topology and network flow, which mediates the transfer of opinions
between agents, both affect the formation of communities. In traditional models
of opinion dynamics, agents are coupled via conservative flows, which result in
one-to-one opinion transfer. However, social interactions are often
non-conservative, resulting in one-to-many transfer of opinions. We study
opinion formation in networks using one-to-one and one-to-many interactions and
show that they lead to different community structure within the same network.Comment: accepted for publication in The Journal of Mathematical Sociology.
arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1201.238
"Last-Mile" preparation for a potential disaster
Extreme natural events, like e.g. tsunamis or earthquakes, regularly lead to catastrophes with dramatic consequences. In recent years natural disasters caused hundreds of thousands of deaths, destruction of infrastructure, disruption of economic activity and loss of billions of dollars worth of property and thus revealed considerable deficits hindering their effective management: Needs for stakeholders, decision-makers as well as for persons concerned include systematic risk identification and evaluation, a way to assess countermeasures, awareness raising and decision support systems to be employed before, during and after crisis situations. The overall goal of this study focuses on interdisciplinary integration of various scientific disciplines to contribute to a tsunami early warning information system. In comparison to most studies our focus is on high-end geometric and thematic analysis to meet the requirements of small-scale, heterogeneous and complex coastal urban systems. Data, methods and results from engineering, remote sensing and social sciences are interlinked and provide comprehensive information for disaster risk assessment, management and reduction. In detail, we combine inundation modeling, urban morphology analysis, population assessment, socio-economic analysis of the population and evacuation modeling. The interdisciplinary results eventually lead to recommendations for mitigation strategies in the fields of spatial planning or coping capacity
From Social Simulation to Integrative System Design
As the recent financial crisis showed, today there is a strong need to gain
"ecological perspective" of all relevant interactions in
socio-economic-techno-environmental systems. For this, we suggested to set-up a
network of Centers for integrative systems design, which shall be able to run
all potentially relevant scenarios, identify causality chains, explore feedback
and cascading effects for a number of model variants, and determine the
reliability of their implications (given the validity of the underlying
models). They will be able to detect possible negative side effect of policy
decisions, before they occur. The Centers belonging to this network of
Integrative Systems Design Centers would be focused on a particular field, but
they would be part of an attempt to eventually cover all relevant areas of
society and economy and integrate them within a "Living Earth Simulator". The
results of all research activities of such Centers would be turned into
informative input for political Decision Arenas. For example, Crisis
Observatories (for financial instabilities, shortages of resources,
environmental change, conflict, spreading of diseases, etc.) would be connected
with such Decision Arenas for the purpose of visualization, in order to make
complex interdependencies understandable to scientists, decision-makers, and
the general public.Comment: 34 pages, Visioneer White Paper, see http://www.visioneer.ethz.c
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