The Untold Story of the Clones: Content-agnostic Factors that Impact YouTube Video Popularity

Video dissemination through sites such as YouTube can have widespread impacts on opinions, thoughts, and cultures. Not all videos will reach the same popularity and have the same impact. Popularity differences arise not only because of differences in video content, but also because of other "content-agnostic" factors. The latter factors are of considerable interest but it has been difficult to accurately study them. For example, videos uploaded by users with large social networks may tend to be more popular because they tend to have more interesting content, not because social network size has a substantial direct impact on popularity. In this paper, we develop and apply a methodology that is able to accurately assess, both qualitatively and quantitatively, the impacts of various content-agnostic factors on video popularity. When controlling for video content, we observe a strong linear "rich-get-richer" behavior, with the total number of previous views as the most important factor except for very young videos. The second most important factor is found to be video age. We analyze a number of phenomena that may contribute to rich-get-richer, including the first-mover advantage, and search bias towards popular videos. For young videos we find that factors other than the total number of previous views, such as uploader characteristics and number of keywords, become relatively more important. Our findings also confirm that inaccurate conclusions can be reached when not controlling for content.Comment: Dataset available at: http://www.ida.liu.se/~nikca/papers/kdd12.htm

Latent Space Model for Multi-Modal Social Data

With the emergence of social networking services, researchers enjoy the increasing availability of large-scale heterogenous datasets capturing online user interactions and behaviors. Traditional analysis of techno-social systems data has focused mainly on describing either the dynamics of social interactions, or the attributes and behaviors of the users. However, overwhelming empirical evidence suggests that the two dimensions affect one another, and therefore they should be jointly modeled and analyzed in a multi-modal framework. The benefits of such an approach include the ability to build better predictive models, leveraging social network information as well as user behavioral signals. To this purpose, here we propose the Constrained Latent Space Model (CLSM), a generalized framework that combines Mixed Membership Stochastic Blockmodels (MMSB) and Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) incorporating a constraint that forces the latent space to concurrently describe the multiple data modalities. We derive an efficient inference algorithm based on Variational Expectation Maximization that has a computational cost linear in the size of the network, thus making it feasible to analyze massive social datasets. We validate the proposed framework on two problems: prediction of social interactions from user attributes and behaviors, and behavior prediction exploiting network information. We perform experiments with a variety of multi-modal social systems, spanning location-based social networks (Gowalla), social media services (Instagram, Orkut), e-commerce and review sites (Amazon, Ciao), and finally citation networks (Cora). The results indicate significant improvement in prediction accuracy over state of the art methods, and demonstrate the flexibility of the proposed approach for addressing a variety of different learning problems commonly occurring with multi-modal social data.Comment: 12 pages, 7 figures, 2 table

The Internet-of-Things Meets Business Process Management: Mutual Benefits and Challenges

The Internet of Things (IoT) refers to a network of connected devices collecting and exchanging data over the Internet. These things can be artificial or natural, and interact as autonomous agents forming a complex system. In turn, Business Process Management (BPM) was established to analyze, discover, design, implement, execute, monitor and evolve collaborative business processes within and across organizations. While the IoT and BPM have been regarded as separate topics in research and practice, we strongly believe that the management of IoT applications will strongly benefit from BPM concepts, methods and technologies on the one hand; on the other one, the IoT poses challenges that will require enhancements and extensions of the current state-of-the-art in the BPM field. In this paper, we question to what extent these two paradigms can be combined and we discuss the emerging challenges

Cascading Behavior in Large Blog Graphs

How do blogs cite and influence each other? How do such links evolve? Does the popularity of old blog posts drop exponentially with time? These are some of the questions that we address in this work. Our goal is to build a model that generates realistic cascades, so that it can help us with link prediction and outlier detection. Blogs (weblogs) have become an important medium of information because of their timely publication, ease of use, and wide availability. In fact, they often make headlines, by discussing and discovering evidence about political events and facts. Often blogs link to one another, creating a publicly available record of how information and influence spreads through an underlying social network. Aggregating links from several blog posts creates a directed graph which we analyze to discover the patterns of information propagation in blogspace, and thereby understand the underlying social network. Not only are blogs interesting on their own merit, but our analysis also sheds light on how rumors, viruses, and ideas propagate over social and computer networks. Here we report some surprising findings of the blog linking and information propagation structure, after we analyzed one of the largest available datasets, with 45,000 blogs and ~ 2.2 million blog-postings. Our analysis also sheds light on how rumors, viruses, and ideas propagate over social and computer networks. We also present a simple model that mimics the spread of information on the blogosphere, and produces information cascades very similar to those found in real life