On using Twitter to monitor political sentiment and predict election results

The body of content available on Twitter undoubtedly contains a diverse range of political insight and commentary. But, to what extent is this representative of an electorate? Can we model political sentiment effectively enough to capture the voting intentions of a nation during an election capaign? We use the recent Irish General Election as a case study for investigating the potential to model political sentiment through mining of social media. Our approach combines sentiment analysis using supervised learning and volume-based measures. We evaluate against the conventional election polls and the final election result. We find that social analytics using both volume-based measures and sentiment analysis are predictive and wemake a number of observations related to the task of monitoring public sentiment during an election campaign, including examining a variety of sample sizes, time periods as well as methods for qualitatively exploring the underlying content

On the development of an information system for monitoring user opinion and its role for the public

Social media services and analytics platforms are rapidly growing. A large number of various events happen mostly every day, and the role of social media monitoring tools is also increasing. Social networks are widely used for managing and promoting brands and different services. Thus, most popular social analytics platforms aim for business purposes while monitoring various social, economic, and political problems remains underrepresented and not covered by thorough research. Moreover, most of them focus on resource-rich languages such as the English language, whereas texts and comments in other low-resource languages, such as the Russian and Kazakh languages in social media, are not represented well enough. So, this work is devoted to developing and applying the information system called the OMSystem for analyzing users' opinions on news portals, blogs, and social networks in Kazakhstan. The system uses sentiment dictionaries of the Russian and Kazakh languages and machine learning algorithms to determine the sentiment of social media texts. The whole structure and functionalities of the system are also presented. The experimental part is devoted to building machine learning models for sentiment analysis on the Russian and Kazakh datasets. Then the performance of the models is evaluated with accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score metrics. The models with the highest scores are selected for implementation in the OMSystem. Then the OMSystem's social analytics module is used to thoroughly analyze the healthcare, political and social aspects of the most relevant topics connected with the vaccination against the coronavirus disease. The analysis allowed us to discover the public social mood in the cities of Almaty and Nur-Sultan and other large regional cities of Kazakhstan. The system's study included two extensive periods: 10-01-2021 to 30-05-2021 and 01-07-2021 to 12-08-2021. In the obtained results, people's moods and attitudes to the Government's policies and actions were studied by such social network indicators as the level of topic discussion activity in society, the level of interest in the topic in society, and the mood level of society. These indicators calculated by the OMSystem allowed careful identification of alarming factors of the public (negative attitude to the government regulations, vaccination policies, trust in vaccination, etc.) and assessment of the social mood

On predictability of rare events leveraging social media: a machine learning perspective

Information extracted from social media streams has been leveraged to forecast the outcome of a large number of real-world events, from political elections to stock market fluctuations. An increasing amount of studies demonstrates how the analysis of social media conversations provides cheap access to the wisdom of the crowd. However, extents and contexts in which such forecasting power can be effectively leveraged are still unverified at least in a systematic way. It is also unclear how social-media-based predictions compare to those based on alternative information sources. To address these issues, here we develop a machine learning framework that leverages social media streams to automatically identify and predict the outcomes of soccer matches. We focus in particular on matches in which at least one of the possible outcomes is deemed as highly unlikely by professional bookmakers. We argue that sport events offer a systematic approach for testing the predictive power of social media, and allow to compare such power against the rigorous baselines set by external sources. Despite such strict baselines, our framework yields above 8% marginal profit when used to inform simple betting strategies. The system is based on real-time sentiment analysis and exploits data collected immediately before the games, allowing for informed bets. We discuss the rationale behind our approach, describe the learning framework, its prediction performance and the return it provides as compared to a set of betting strategies. To test our framework we use both historical Twitter data from the 2014 FIFA World Cup games, and real-time Twitter data collected by monitoring the conversations about all soccer matches of four major European tournaments (FA Premier League, Serie A, La Liga, and Bundesliga), and the 2014 UEFA Champions League, during the period between Oct. 25th 2014 and Nov. 26th 2014.Comment: 10 pages, 10 tables, 8 figure

Semantic Sentiment Analysis of Microblogs

Microblogs and social media platforms are now considered among the most popular forms of online communication. Through a platform like Twitter, much information reflecting people's opinions and attitudes is published and shared among users on a daily basis. This has recently brought great opportunities to companies interested in tracking and monitoring the reputation of their brands and businesses, and to policy makers and politicians to support their assessment of public opinions about their policies or political issues. A wide range of approaches to sentiment analysis on Twitter, and other similar microblogging platforms, have been recently built. Most of these approaches rely mainly on the presence of affect words or syntactic structures that explicitly and unambiguously reflect sentiment (e.g., "great'', "terrible''). However, these approaches are semantically weak, that is, they do not account for the semantics of words when detecting their sentiment in text. This is problematic since the sentiment of words, in many cases, is associated with their semantics, either along the context they occur within (e.g., "great'' is negative in the context "pain'') or the conceptual meaning associated with the words (e.g., "Ebola" is negative when its associated semantic concept is "Virus"). This thesis investigates the role of words' semantics in sentiment analysis of microblogs, aiming mainly at addressing the above problem. In particular, Twitter is used as a case study of microblogging platforms to investigate whether capturing the sentiment of words with respect to their semantics leads to more accurate sentiment analysis models on Twitter. To this end, several approaches are proposed in this thesis for extracting and incorporating two types of word semantics for sentiment analysis: contextual semantics (i.e., semantics captured from words' co-occurrences) and conceptual semantics (i.e., semantics extracted from external knowledge sources). Experiments are conducted with both types of semantics by assessing their impact in three popular sentiment analysis tasks on Twitter; entity-level sentiment analysis, tweet-level sentiment analysis and context-sensitive sentiment lexicon adaptation. Evaluation under each sentiment analysis task includes several sentiment lexicons, and up to 9 Twitter datasets of different characteristics, as well as comparing against several state-of-the-art sentiment analysis approaches widely used in the literature. The findings from this body of work demonstrate the value of using semantics in sentiment analysis on Twitter. The proposed approaches, which consider words' semantics for sentiment analysis at both, entity and tweet levels, surpass non-semantic approaches in most datasets

Detecting and Monitoring Hate Speech in Twitter

Social Media are sensors in the real world that can be used to measure the pulse of societies. However, the massive and unfiltered feed of messages posted in social media is a phenomenon that nowadays raises social alarms, especially when these messages contain hate speech targeted to a specific individual or group. In this context, governments and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) are concerned about the possible negative impact that these messages can have on individuals or on the society. In this paper, we present HaterNet, an intelligent system currently being used by the Spanish National Office Against Hate Crimes of the Spanish State Secretariat for Security that identifies and monitors the evolution of hate speech in Twitter. The contributions of this research are many-fold: (1) It introduces the first intelligent system that monitors and visualizes, using social network analysis techniques, hate speech in Social Media. (2) It introduces a novel public dataset on hate speech in Spanish consisting of 6000 expert-labeled tweets. (3) It compares several classification approaches based on different document representation strategies and text classification models. (4) The best approach consists of a combination of a LTSM+MLP neural network that takes as input the tweet’s word, emoji, and expression tokens’ embeddings enriched by the tf-idf, and obtains an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.828 on our dataset, outperforming previous methods presented in the literatureThe work by Quijano-Sanchez was supported by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation grant FJCI-2016-28855. The research of Liberatore was supported by the Government of Spain, grant MTM2015-65803-R, and by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme, under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant agreement No. 691161 (GEOSAFE). All the financial support is gratefully acknowledge