Learning Graphs from Linear Measurements: Fundamental Trade-offs and Applications

We consider a specific graph learning task: reconstructing a symmetric matrix that represents an underlying graph using linear measurements. We present a sparsity characterization for distributions of random graphs (that are allowed to contain high-degree nodes), based on which we study fundamental trade-offs between the number of measurements, the complexity of the graph class, and the probability of error. We first derive a necessary condition on the number of measurements. Then, by considering a three-stage recovery scheme, we give a sufficient condition for recovery. Furthermore, assuming the measurements are Gaussian IID, we prove upper and lower bounds on the (worst-case) sample complexity for both noisy and noiseless recovery. In the special cases of the uniform distribution on trees with n nodes and the Erdős-Rényi (n,p) class, the fundamental trade-offs are tight up to multiplicative factors with noiseless measurements. In addition, for practical applications, we design and implement a polynomial-time (in n ) algorithm based on the three-stage recovery scheme. Experiments show that the heuristic algorithm outperforms basis pursuit on star graphs. We apply the heuristic algorithm to learn admittance matrices in electric grids. Simulations for several canonical graph classes and IEEE power system test cases demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed algorithm for parameter reconstruction

Exact Topology and Parameter Estimation in Distribution Grids with Minimal Observability

Limited presence of nodal and line meters in distribution grids hinders their optimal operation and participation in real-time markets. In particular lack of real-time information on the grid topology and infrequently calibrated line parameters (impedances) adversely affect the accuracy of any operational power flow control. This paper suggests a novel algorithm for learning the topology of distribution grid and estimating impedances of the operational lines with minimal observational requirements - it provably reconstructs topology and impedances using voltage and injection measured only at the terminal (end-user) nodes of the distribution grid. All other (intermediate) nodes in the network may be unobserved/hidden. Furthermore no additional input (e.g., number of grid nodes, historical information on injections at hidden nodes) is needed for the learning to succeed. Performance of the algorithm is illustrated in numerical experiments on the IEEE and custom power distribution models

Modeling and performance evaluation of stealthy false data injection attacks on smart grid in the presence of corrupted measurements

The false data injection (FDI) attack cannot be detected by the traditional anomaly detection techniques used in the energy system state estimators. In this paper, we demonstrate how FDI attacks can be constructed blindly, i.e., without system knowledge, including topological connectivity and line reactance information. Our analysis reveals that existing FDI attacks become detectable (consequently unsuccessful) by the state estimator if the data contains grossly corrupted measurements such as device malfunction and communication errors. The proposed sparse optimization based stealthy attacks construction strategy overcomes this limitation by separating the gross errors from the measurement matrix. Extensive theoretical modeling and experimental evaluation show that the proposed technique performs more stealthily (has less relative error) and efficiently (fast enough to maintain time requirement) compared to other methods on IEEE benchmark test systems.Comment: Keywords: Smart grid, False data injection, Blind attack, Principal component analysis (PCA), Journal of Computer and System Sciences, Elsevier, 201

Sparsity-Based Error Detection in DC Power Flow State Estimation

This paper presents a new approach for identifying the measurement error in the DC power flow state estimation problem. The proposed algorithm exploits the singularity of the impedance matrix and the sparsity of the error vector by posing the DC power flow problem as a sparse vector recovery problem that leverages the structure of the power system and uses $l_1$-norm minimization for state estimation. This approach can provably compute the measurement errors exactly, and its performance is robust to the arbitrary magnitudes of the measurement errors. Hence, the proposed approach can detect the noisy elements if the measurements are contaminated with additive white Gaussian noise plus sparse noise with large magnitude. The effectiveness of the proposed sparsity-based decomposition-DC power flow approach is demonstrated on the IEEE 118-bus and 300-bus test systems

A Holistic Approach to Forecasting Wholesale Energy Market Prices

Electricity market price predictions enable energy market participants to shape their consumption or supply while meeting their economic and environmental objectives. By utilizing the basic properties of the supply-demand matching process performed by grid operators, known as Optimal Power Flow (OPF), we develop a methodology to recover energy market's structure and predict the resulting nodal prices by using only publicly available data, specifically grid-wide generation type mix, system load, and historical prices. Our methodology uses the latest advancements in statistical learning to cope with high dimensional and sparse real power grid topologies, as well as scarce, public market data, while exploiting structural characteristics of the underlying OPF mechanism. Rigorous validations using the Southwest Power Pool (SPP) market data reveal a strong correlation between the grid level mix and corresponding market prices, resulting in accurate day-ahead predictions of real time prices. The proposed approach demonstrates remarkable proximity to the state-of-the-art industry benchmark while assuming a fully decentralized, market-participant perspective. Finally, we recognize the limitations of the proposed and other evaluated methodologies in predicting large price spike values.Comment: 14 pages, 14 figures. Accepted for publication in IEEE Transactions on Power System