On the Bayesian optimization and robustness of event detection methods in NILM

A basic but crucial step to increase efficiency and save energy in residential settings is to have an accurate view of energy consumption. To monitor residential energy consumption cost-effectively, i.e., without relying on per-device monitoring equipment, non-intrusive load monitoring (NILM) provides an elegant solution. The aim of NILM is to disaggregate the total power consumption (as measured, e.g., by smart meters at the grid connection point of the household) into individual devices' power consumption, using machine learning techniques. An essential building block of NILM is event detection: detecting when appliances are switched on or off. Current state-of-the-art methods face two open issues. First, they are typically not robust to differences in base load power consumption and secondly, they require extensive parameter optimization. In this paper, both problems are addressed. First two novel and robust algorithms are proposed: a modified version of the chi-squared goodness-of-fit (x(2) GOF) test and an event detection method based on cepstrum smoothing. Then, a workflow using surrogate-based optimization (SBO) to efficiently tune these methods is introduced. Benchmarking on the BLUED dataset shows that both suggested algorithms outperform the standard x2 GOF test for traces with a higher base load and that they can be optimized efficiently using SBO. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

A methodology for designing flexible multi-generation systems

An FMG (flexible multi-generation system) consists of integrated and flexibly operated facilities that provide multiple links between the various layers of the energy system. FMGs may facilitate integration and balancing of fluctuating renewable energy sources in the energy system in a cost- and energy efficient way, thereby playing an important part in smart energy systems. The development of efficient FMGs requires systematic optimization approaches. This study presents a novel, generic methodology for designing FMGs that facilitates quick and reliable pre-feasibility analyses. The methodology is based on consideration of the following points: Selection, location and dimensioning of processes; systematic heat and mass integration; flexible operation optimization with respect to both short-term market fluctuations and long-term energy system development; global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis; biomass supply chains; variable part-load performance; and multi-objective optimization considering economic and environmental performance. Tested in a case study, the methodology is proved effective in screening the solution space for efficient FMG designs, in assessing the importance of parameter uncertainties and in estimating the likely performance variability for promising designs. The results of the case study emphasize the importance of considering systematic process integration when developing smart energy systems. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Forecasting transport mode use with support vector machines based approach

The paper explores potential to forecast what transport mode one will use for his/her next trip. The support vector machines based approach learns from individual's behavior (validated GPS tracks) to support smart city transport planning services. The overall success rate, in forecasting the transport mode, is 82 %, with lower confusion for private car, bike and walking

Optimal management of bio-based energy supply chains under parametric uncertainty through a data-driven decision-support framework

This paper addresses the optimal management of a multi-objective bio-based energy supply chain network subjected to multiple sources of uncertainty. The complexity to obtain an optimal solution using traditional uncertainty management methods dramatically increases with the number of uncertain factors considered. Such a complexity produces that, if tractable, the problem is solved after a large computational effort. Therefore, in this work a data-driven decision-making framework is proposed to address this issue. Such a framework exploits machine learning techniques to efficiently approximate the optimal management decisions considering a set of uncertain parameters that continuously influence the process behavior as an input. A design of computer experiments technique is used in order to combine these parameters and produce a matrix of representative information. These data are used to optimize the deterministic multi-objective bio-based energy network problem through conventional optimization methods, leading to a detailed (but elementary) map of the optimal management decisions based on the uncertain parameters. Afterwards, the detailed data-driven relations are described/identified using an Ordinary Kriging meta-model. The result exhibits a very high accuracy of the parametric meta-models for predicting the optimal decision variables in comparison with the traditional stochastic approach. Besides, and more importantly, a dramatic reduction of the computational effort required to obtain these optimal values in response to the change of the uncertain parameters is achieved. Thus the use of the proposed data-driven decision tool promotes a time-effective optimal decision making, which represents a step forward to use data-driven strategy in large-scale/complex industrial problems.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

The impact of agricultural activities on water quality: a case for collaborative catchment-scale management using integrated wireless sensor networks

The challenge of improving water quality is a growing global concern, typified by the European Commission Water Framework Directive and the United States Clean Water Act. The main drivers of poor water quality are economics, poor water management, agricultural practices and urban development. This paper reviews the extensive role of non-point sources, in particular the outdated agricultural practices, with respect to nutrient and contaminant contributions. Water quality monitoring (WQM) is currently undertaken through a number of data acquisition methods from grab sampling to satellite based remote sensing of water bodies. Based on the surveyed sampling methods and their numerous limitations, it is proposed that wireless sensor networks (WSNs), despite their own limitations, are still very attractive and effective for real-time spatio-temporal data collection for WQM applications. WSNs have been employed for WQM of surface and ground water and catchments, and have been fundamental in advancing the knowledge of contaminants trends through their high resolution observations. However, these applications have yet to explore the implementation and impact of this technology for management and control decisions, to minimize and prevent individual stakeholder’s contributions, in an autonomous and dynamic manner. Here, the potential of WSN-controlled agricultural activities and different environmental compartments for integrated water quality management is presented and limitations of WSN in agriculture and WQM are identified. Finally, a case for collaborative networks at catchment scale is proposed for enabling cooperation among individually networked activities/stakeholders (farming activities, water bodies) for integrated water quality monitoring, control and management