Attendance of ice hockey matches in the Czech Extraliga

This paper uses data about 3,640 matches played in the seasons 2000/01-2009/10 to explain individual match attendance of the top Czech ice hockey competition – the Extraliga. Some interesting results are that fans decide whether to attend based on the detailed information about the home team, but use just the easily observable information about the away team; that a match having no impact on the final season outcome is much less attended; that televising a match decreases attendances of all matches played on the same day, but there is no negative next-day effect; that both very good and very bad weather decreases attendance; and that if two home matches are played in a short time period, their attendance is lower with likely higher impact on the second match. Substitution of ice hockey with soccer is investigated on several different levels – while ice hockey and soccer are definitely long-term substitutes, there are mixed results for same-day substitution. Modernization of ice hockey arenas is identified as the key factor behind the almost 20% attendance growth in the analyzed period. This paper also presents a new realistic method of modeling seasonal uncertainty based on Monte Carlo simulation that does not rely on ex post information.attendance demand; ice hockey; Czech Republic; seasonal uncertainty; Monte Carlo

PENERAPAN MODEL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (ARIMA) UNTUK PREDIKSI KEMUNCULAN TITIK PANAS PADA KABUPATEN ROKAN HILIR

Titik panas merupakan lokasi panas di permukaan bumi, dimana titik-titik tersebut merupakan indikasi adanya kebakaran hutan dan lahan. Daerah yang berada di sekitar titik panas merupakan daerah yang rawan terjadi kebakaran. Rokan Hilir merupakan salah satu Kabupaten yang memiliki titik panas terbanyak di Provinsi Riau. Stasiun Meteorologi Pekanbaru yang dimiliki oleh BMKG melalui satelit penginderaan jauh Terra/Aqua-MODIS milik NASA, pada tanggal 18 Agustus tahun 2018 mendeteksi terdapat 103 titik panas yang mengindikasikan kebakaran hutan dan lahan, 97 di antaranya berada di Rokan Hilir. Berdasarkan permasalahan yang ada dalam penelitian ini penulis akan merancang model forecasting titik panas untuk dapat mencegah perluasan kebakaran hutan dan lahan. Forecasting deret waktu menggunakan data historis untuk memprediksi data di masa depan. Model forecasting deret waktu yang digunakan pada penelitian kali ini adalah ARIMA karena memiliki ketepatan metode yang lebih baik jika dibandingkan dengan metode yang lainnya seperti Multivarian, Random-walk with drift dan Exponential Smoothing berdasarkan beberapa penelitian sebelumnya. Tujuan yang ingin dicapai dari penelitian ini adalah menerapkan posedur box jenkins untuk membangun model ARIMA yang sesuai dengan data serta menerapkan model ARIMA yang didapatkan untuk membuat prediksi kemunculan titik panas pada bulan Juli - Desember tahun 2019. Didapatkan model terbaik yaitu ARIMA (0, 0, 1) with non-zero mean dengan nilai AICc sebesar 405.12 dengan nilai MAE sebesar 3.471168. Kata kunci: Titik panas, ARIMA, Rokan Hili

Sprachkontaktinduzierte Grammatikalisierung am Beispiel des polnischen und kaschubischen Tempussystems

This paper investigates various aspects of grammaticalization of Polish and Kashubian periphrastic verb forms with mieć\miec and bëc and participles. The involvement of factors, which are due to language contact or to autonomous development is thoroughly explored and analyzed in the context of basic grammaticalization parameters. At the same time this contribution should prove with valid arguments the thesis of an inhomogeneous, variably realized and partly of others (all above pragmatic) factors dependent grammaticalization der habere-\esse-forms in the Slavia. So this paper refers both to the canonical differences in the realization of single grammaticalization parameters as well as broader developmental tendencies in the Slavia.This paper investigates various aspects of grammaticalization of Polish and Kashubian periphrastic verb forms with mieć\miec and bëc and participles. The involvement of factors, which are due to language contact or to autonomous development is thoroughly explored and analyzed in the context of basic grammaticalization parameters. At the same time this contribution should prove with valid arguments the thesis of an inhomogeneous, variably realized and partly of others (all above pragmatic) factors dependent grammaticalization der habere-\esse-forms in the Slavia. So this paper refers both to the canonical differences in the realization of single grammaticalization parameters as well as broader developmental tendencies in the Slavia.     This paper investigates various aspects of grammaticalization of Polish and Kashubian periphrastic verb forms with mieć\miec and bëc and participles. The involvement of factors, which are due to language contact or to autonomous development is thoroughly explored and analyzed in the context of basic grammaticalization parameters. At the same time this contribution should prove with valid arguments the thesis of an inhomogeneous, variably realized and partly of others (all above pragmatic) factors dependent grammaticalization der habere-\esse-forms in the Slavia. So this paper refers both to the canonical differences in the realization of single grammaticalization parameters as well as broader developmental tendencies in the Slavia

Прямые лексические заимствования из древнееврейского языка в средневековой славяно-русской книжности

Работа выполнена в рамках гранта Президента РФ по государственной поддержке молодых российских ученых — кандидатов наук МК-4528.2015.6, проект «Языковые и литературные контакты славян и евреев в средневековой Slavia Orthodoxa»

The Church of Divine Wisdom or of Christ – the Incarnate Logos? Dedication of Hagia Sophia in Constantinople in the Light of Byzantine Sources from 5th to 14th century

The article attempts to answer the question of how the name of the most important Byzantine church of Constantinople, the basilica of Hagia Sophia, built in the mid-4th cent., and then rebuilt during the reign of Justinian the Great was understood and interpreted. The problem has been presented on the basis of the views of Byzantine writers from the 5th to the 14th cent. (Socrates Scholasticus, Procopius of Caesarea, Paul the Silentiary, John Zonaras, George Pachymeres, Patriarch Callistus I). The analysis of the above sources allows an assumption that according to the Byzantines themselves the Constantinopolitan cathedral was dedicated to the Divine Wisdom, commonly identified with Christ, the Incarnate Word. The evidence supporting this thesis has been provided by both iconography (e.g. the mosaic from the turn of the 9th and 10th cent. from the tympanum over the main entrance from the narthex to nave of Hagia Sophia, depicting Christ the Pantocrator) and the liturgical practice of the basilica, which can now be reconstructed on the basis of the temple typicons, preserved until today. The final part of the article names some other churches dedicated to the Divine Wisdom, built in the area of the Byzantine ecumene (Ephesus, Jerusalem, Thessalonica, Nicaea, Edessa, Trebizond, Mistra, Arta, Benevento, Nicosia on Cyprus, Serdica (Sofia), Ohrid, Sliven, Kiev, Novgorod the Great and Polotsk).This article has been written under the research project funded by the National Science Centre (Sofia – the Personification of Divine Wisdom: the History of the Notion in the Byzantine-Slavonic Culture, nr 2011/03/N/HS2/00890)

In search of a working notion of lex sportiva

The emergence of a lex specialis regime and its interaction with the established, governing lex generalis in their overlapping spheres of application is always an intriguing legal relationship to explore. In this article, the focus will be on the development of legal principles and rules that have been/can be collectively described as lex sportiva. However, it is notable that those involved in the consideration, usage and application of this notion have not agreed as to the scope and delimitation of the concept. It is debated whether lex sportiva exists in the first place, its legal sources and its purpose. The risk is for the concept becoming redundant when not vilified as a hidden strategy to exclude non-sports-related law from the ambit of sport. Through an examination of the different propositions to the framework of the term, this article will shed light on the existence, utility and limits of the development of this conceptualisation

Ohrid Literary School in the Period of Tzar Samoil and the Beginnings of the Russian Church Literature

The article is concerned with the role of St. Clement’s Church in the preservation and the spread of Cyril and Methodius’s literary tradition and Slavic church services. Special emphasis is placed on the work of the Ohrid Literary School in the time of Tsar Samoil and the spread of Slavic literacy from its centers toward Macedonia’s neighboring countries and the Kievan Rus

Pennington to Walter Norblad April 1946

FILE: Pennington0065 BOX: Levi Pennington Bulk Date Range Box #7 FOLDER: April 1946https://digitalcommons.georgefox.edu/levi_pennington/1045/thumbnail.jp