Markov Chain Monte Carlo Based on Deterministic Transformations

In this article we propose a novel MCMC method based on deterministic transformations T: X x D --> X where X is the state-space and D is some set which may or may not be a subset of X. We refer to our new methodology as Transformation-based Markov chain Monte Carlo (TMCMC). One of the remarkable advantages of our proposal is that even if the underlying target distribution is very high-dimensional, deterministic transformation of a one-dimensional random variable is sufficient to generate an appropriate Markov chain that is guaranteed to converge to the high-dimensional target distribution. Apart from clearly leading to massive computational savings, this idea of deterministically transforming a single random variable very generally leads to excellent acceptance rates, even though all the random variables associated with the high-dimensional target distribution are updated in a single block. Since it is well-known that joint updating of many random variables using Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm generally leads to poor acceptance rates, TMCMC, in this regard, seems to provide a significant advance. We validate our proposal theoretically, establishing the convergence properties. Furthermore, we show that TMCMC can be very effectively adopted for simulating from doubly intractable distributions. TMCMC is compared with MH using the well-known Challenger data, demonstrating the effectiveness of of the former in the case of highly correlated variables. Moreover, we apply our methodology to a challenging posterior simulation problem associated with the geostatistical model of Diggle et al. (1998), updating 160 unknown parameters jointly, using a deterministic transformation of a one-dimensional random variable. Remarkable computational savings as well as good convergence properties and acceptance rates are the results.Comment: 28 pages, 3 figures; Longer abstract inside articl

Link projections and flypes

Let \Pi be a link projection in S^2. John Conway and later Francis Bonahon and Larry Siebenmann undertook to split $\Pi$ into canonical pieces. These pieces received different names: basic or polyhedral diagrams on one hand, rational, algebraic, bretzel, arborescent diagrams on the other hand. This paper proposes a thorough presentation of the theory, known to happy fews. We apply the existence and uniqueness theorem for the canonical decomposition to the classification of Haseman circles and to the localisation of the flypes

Evolution of Theories of Mind

This paper studies the evolution of peoples' models of how other people think -- their theories of mind. First, this is formalized within the level-k model, which postulates a hierarchy of types, such that type k plays a k times iterated best response to the uniform distribution. It is found that, under plausible conditions, lower types co-exist with higher types. The results are extended to a model of learning, in which type k plays a k times iterated best response the average of past play. The results are also extended to the cognitive hierarchy model, and to the introduction of a type that plays a Nash equilibrium.Theory of Mind; Evolution; Learning; Level-k; Fictitious Play; Cognitive Hierarchy

A Unique "Nonnegative" Solution to an Underdetermined System: from Vectors to Matrices

This paper investigates the uniqueness of a nonnegative vector solution and the uniqueness of a positive semidefinite matrix solution to underdetermined linear systems. A vector solution is the unique solution to an underdetermined linear system only if the measurement matrix has a row-span intersecting the positive orthant. Focusing on two types of binary measurement matrices, Bernoulli 0-1 matrices and adjacency matrices of general expander graphs, we show that, in both cases, the support size of a unique nonnegative solution can grow linearly, namely O(n), with the problem dimension n. We also provide closed-form characterizations of the ratio of this support size to the signal dimension. For the matrix case, we show that under a necessary and sufficient condition for the linear compressed observations operator, there will be a unique positive semidefinite matrix solution to the compressed linear observations. We further show that a randomly generated Gaussian linear compressed observations operator will satisfy this condition with overwhelmingly high probability

Inferring Algebraic Effects

We present a complete polymorphic effect inference algorithm for an ML-style language with handlers of not only exceptions, but of any other algebraic effect such as input & output, mutable references and many others. Our main aim is to offer the programmer a useful insight into the effectful behaviour of programs. Handlers help here by cutting down possible effects and the resulting lengthy output that often plagues precise effect systems. Additionally, we present a set of methods that further simplify the displayed types, some even by deliberately hiding inferred information from the programmer