An evolutionary complex systems decision-support tool for the management of operations

Purpose - The purpose of this is to add both to the development of complex systems thinking in the subject area of operations and production management and to the limited number of applications of computational models and simulations from the science of complex systems. The latter potentially offer helpful decision-support tools for operations and production managers. Design/methodology/approach - A mechanical engineering firm was used as a case study where a combined qualitative and quantitative methodological approach was employed to extract the required data from four senior managers. Company performance measures as well as firm technologies, practices and policies, and their relation and interaction with one another, were elicited. The data were subjected to an evolutionary complex systems (ECS) model resulting in a series of simulations. Findings - The findings highlighted the effects of the diversity in management decision making on the firm's evolutionary trajectory. The CEO appeared to have the most balanced view of the firm, closely followed by the marketing and research and development managers. The manufacturing manager's responses led to the most extreme evolutionary trajectory where the integrity of the entire firm came into question particularly when considering how employees were utilised. Research limitations/implications - By drawing directly from the opinions and views of managers, rather than from logical "if-then" rules and averaged mathematical representations of agents that characterise agent-based and other self-organisational models, this work builds on previous applications by capturing a micro-level description of diversity that has been problematical both in theory and application. Practical implications - This approach can be used as a decision-support tool for operations and other managers providing a forum with which to explore: the strengths, weaknesses and consequences of different decision-making capacities within the firm; the introduction of new manufacturing technologies, practices and policies; and the different evolutionary trajectories that a firm can take. Originality/value - With the inclusion of "micro-diversity", ECS modelling moves beyond the self-organisational models that populate the literature but has not as yet produced a great many practical simulation results. This work is a step in that direction

An evolutionary model for the dynamics of vertical integration and network-based production

The concept of modularity has gained recently a growing attention in the management literature as a key to explain the contemporary trends of industrial dynamics. A stronger exploitation of external «networkbased» economies with respect to internal «bureaucracy-based» economies is one of the major consequences of the diffusion of flexible production systems and of modular architectures for products. To explain this connection, in this paper a model is presented which tries to explain the co-evolution of technology and organization as the outcome of a complex evolutionary process. In particular, through a set of exploratory agent-based simulations we try to show the existence of qualitatively different dynamic processes in coincidence of different phases and specific conditions of product and technology development, as well as the existence of a relationship between this dynamics and other competitive factors, determining a wide set of structurally different dynamical patterns in coincidence of different combinations of factors.modularity, modular networks

Risk mitigation decisions for it security

Enterprises must manage their information risk as part of their larger operational risk management program. Managers must choose how to control for such information risk. This article defines the flow risk reduction problem and presents a formal model using a workflow framework. Three different control placement methods are introduced to solve the problem, and a comparative analysis is presented using a robust test set of 162 simulations. One year of simulated attacks is used to validate the quality of the solutions. We find that the math programming control placement method yields substantial improvements in terms of risk reduction and risk reduction on investment when compared to heuristics that would typically be used by managers to solve the problem. The contribution of this research is to provide managers with methods to substantially reduce information and security risks, while obtaining significantly better returns on their security investments. By using a workflow approach to control placement, which guides the manager to examine the entire infrastructure in a holistic manner, this research is unique in that it enables information risk to be examined strategically. © 2014 ACM

Aggregation of Hospital Business Processes

There are estimates that up to 30% of hospital costs are due to inefficiently coordinated hospital processes. As a result many hospitals have tried to model and to reengineer their business processes. These efforts have very often been abandoned, because the normally constructed total models of hospital processes could hardly cope with the rapid technological and medical progress as well as with changing staff. We discuss approaches for a qualitative and quantitative process modularization which improve the understanding of processes and enables better planned simulations. Various methods are discussed which allow a qualitative modularization on the basis of a disaggregated process graph. To cope with this modularization numerically simple semi-stochastic formulas are developed for the calculation of expected values and variances of cycle times and costs from micro-data up to the modular level. Thus a qualitative as well as quantitative discussion of hospital business processes on the modular level become possible.OR in health care service, graph theory, business process reengineering, stochastic processes, simulation

Hardware acceleration of reaction-diffusion systems:a guide to optimisation of pattern formation algorithms using OpenACC

Reaction Diffusion Systems (RDS) have widespread applications in computational ecology, biology, computer graphics and the visual arts. For the former applications a major barrier to the development of effective simulation models is their computational complexity - it takes a great deal of processing power to simulate enough replicates such that reliable conclusions can be drawn. Optimizing the computation is thus highly desirable in order to obtain more results with less resources. Existing optimizations of RDS tend to be low-level and GPGPU based. Here we apply the higher-level OpenACC framework to two case studies: a simple RDS to learn the ‘workings’ of OpenACC and a more realistic and complex example. Our results show that simple parallelization directives and minimal data transfer can produce a useful performance improvement. The relative simplicity of porting OpenACC code between heterogeneous hardware is a key benefit to the scientific computing community in terms of speed-up and portability

Impact of the HeartMath Self-Management Skills Program on Physiological and Psychological Stress in Police Officers

This study explored the impact on a group of police officers from Santa Clara County, California of the HeartMath stress and emotional self-management training, which provides practical techniques designed to reduce stress in the moment, improve physiological and emotional balance, increase mental clarity and enhance performance and quality of life.This study provides evidence that practical stress and emotional self-management techniques can reduce damaging physiological and psychological responses to both acute and chronic stress in police, and positively impact a variety of major life areas in a relatively short period of time. In particular, results show that application of these interventions can produce notable improvements in communication difficulties at work and in strained family relationships, two areas that are well recognized to be major sources of stress for police

Effects of a Trust Mechanism on Complex Adaptive Supply Networks: An Agent-Based Social Simulation Study

This paper models a supply network as a complex adaptive system (CAS), in which firms or agents interact with one another and adapt themselves. And it applies agent-based social simulation (ABSS), a research method of simulating social systems under the CAS paradigm, to observe emergent outcomes. The main purposes of this paper are to consider a social factor, trust, in modeling the agents\' behavioral decision-makings and, through the simulation studies, to examine the intermediate self-organizing processes and the resulting macro-level system behaviors. The simulations results reveal symmetrical trust levels between two trading agents, based on which the degree of trust relationship in each pair of trading agents as well as the resulting collaboration patterns in the entire supply network emerge. Also, it is shown that agents\' decision-making behavior based on the trust relationship can contribute to the reduction in the variability of inventory levels. This result can be explained by the fact that mutual trust relationship based on the past experiences of trading diminishes an agent\'s uncertainties about the trustworthiness of its trading partners and thereby tends to stabilize its inventory levels.Complex Adaptive System, Agent-Based Social Simulation, Supply Network, Trust

How to enhance crop production and nitrogen fluxes? A result-oriented scheme to evaluate best agri-environmental measures in Veneto Region, Italy

The cost-effectiveness of adopting agri-environmental measures (AEMs) in Europe, which combine agricultural productions with reduced N losses, is debated due to poorly targeted site-specific funding that is allocated regardless of local variability. An integrated DAYCENT model-GIS platform was developed combining pedo-climatic and agricultural systems information. The aim was to evaluate best strategies to improve N fluxes of agro-ecosystems within a perspective of sustainable intensification. Indicators of agronomic efficiency and environmental quality were considered. The results showed that agronomic benefits were observed with a continuous soil cover (conservation agriculture and cover crops), which enhanced nitrogen use efficiency (+17%) and crop yields (+34%), although in some cases these might be overestimated due to modelling limitations. An overall environmental improvement was found with continuous soil cover and long-term change from mineral to organic inputs (NLeach 45 Mg ha 121), which were effective in the sandy soils of western and eastern Veneto with low SOM, improving the soil-water balance and nutrients availability over time. Results suggest that AEM subsidies should be allocated at a site-specific level that includes pedo-climatic variability, following a result-oriented approach