SURROGATE SEARCH: A SIMULATION OPTIMIZATION METHODOLOGY FOR LARGE-SCALE SYSTEMS

For certain settings in which system performance cannot be evaluated by analytical methods, simulation models are widely utilized. This is especially for complex systems. To try to optimize these models, simulation optimization techniques have been developed. These attempt to identify the system designs and parameters that result in (near) optimal system performance. Although more realistic results can be provided by simulation, the computational time for simulator execution, and consequently, simulation optimization may be very long. Hence, the major challenge in determining improved system designs by incorporating simulation and search methodologies is to develop more efficient simulation optimization heuristics or algorithms. This dissertation develops a new approach, Surrogate Search, to determine near optimal system designs for large-scale simulation problems that contain combinatorial decision variables. First, surrogate objective functions are identified by analyzing simulation results to observe system behavior. Multiple linear regression is utilized to examine simulation results and construct surrogate objective functions. The identified surrogate objective functions, which can be quickly executed, are then utilized as simulator replacements in the search methodologies. For multiple problems containing different settings of the same simulation model, only one surrogate objective function needs to be identified. The development of surrogate objective functions benefits the optimization process by reducing the number of simulation iterations. Surrogate Search approaches are developed for two combinatorial problems, operator assignment and task sequencing, using a large-scale sortation system simulation model. The experimental results demonstrate that Surrogate Search can be applied to such large-scale simulation problems and outperform recognized simulation optimization methodology, Scatter Search (SS). This dissertation provides a systematic methodology to perform simulation optimization for complex operations research problems and contributes to the simulation optimization field

Optimization of parameters of a reinsurance agreement in non-life insurance

The primary purpose of this thesis is to determine the methodologies of composing the optimal risk transfer mechanism from the direct insurer's point of view. The study aims to investigate reinsurance optimization approaches developed by the actuarial science with an emphasis on the derivation of mathematical formulation of the retention level, being a prior parameter of the reinsurance agreement. The application of derived techniques to quota share and excess of loss reinsurance treaties is discussed. Since it is usually admitted that reinsurance should ensure cedent’s financial stability, the simulation model is composed to link the direct insurer’s risk process and reinsurance parameter in order to analyze the effects of examined optimization methodologies on the insurer’s general financial performance. Consequently, the conclusions based on obtained simulation results are provided

Multifidelity Modeling for Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs)

Multifidelity simulation methodologies are often used in an attempt to judiciously combine low-fidelity and high-fidelity simulation results in an accuracy-increasing, cost-saving way. Candidates for this approach are simulation methodologies for which there are fidelity differences connected with significant computational cost differences. Physics-informed Neural Networks (PINNs) are candidates for these types of approaches due to the significant difference in training times required when different fidelities (expressed in terms of architecture width and depth as well as optimization criteria) are employed. In this paper, we propose a particular multifidelity approach applied to PINNs that exploits low-rank structure. We demonstrate that width, depth, and optimization criteria can be used as parameters related to model fidelity, and show numerical justification of cost differences in training due to fidelity parameter choices. We test our multifidelity scheme on various canonical forward PDE models that have been presented in the emerging PINNs literature

Design Space Exploration in Cyber-Physical Systems

Cyber physical systems (CPS) integrate a variety of engineering areas such as control, mechanical and computer engineering in a holistic design effort. While interdependencies between the different disciplines are key attributes of CPS design science, little is known about the impact of design decisions of the cyber part on the overall system qualities. To investigate these interdependencies, this paper proposes a simulation-based Design Space Exploration (DSE) framework that considers detailed cyber system parameters such as cache size, bus width, and voltage levels in addition to physical and control parameters of the CPS. We propose an exploration algorithm that surfs the parameter configurations in the cyber physical sub-systems, in order to approximate the Pareto-optimal design points with regards to the trade-os among the design objectives, such as energy consumption and control stability. We apply the proposed framework to a network control system for an inverted-pendulum application. The presented holistic evaluation of the identified Pareto-points reveals the presence of non-trivial trade-os, which are imposed by the control, physical, and detailed cyber parameters. For instance the identified energy and control optimal design points comprise configurations with a wide range of CPU speeds, sample times and cache configuration following non-trivial zig-zag patterns. The proposed framework could identify and manage those trade-os and, as a result, is an imperative rst step to automate the search for superior CSP configurations

Mutual benefits of two multicriteria analysis methodologies: A case study for batch plant design

This paper presents a MultiObjective Genetic Algorithm (MOGA) optimization framework for batch plant design. For this purpose, two approaches are implemented and compared with respect to three criteria, i.e., investment cost, equipment number and a flexibility indicator based on work in process (the so-called WIP) computed by use of a discrete-event simulation model. The first approach involves a genetic algorithm in order to generate acceptable solutions, from which the best ones are chosen by using a Pareto Sort algorithm. The second approach combines the previous Genetic Algorithm with a multicriteria analysis methodology, i.e., the Electre method in order to find the best solutions. The performances of the two procedures are studied for a large-size problem and a comparison between the procedures is then made