Comparing decision support tools for cargo screening processes

When planning to change operations at ports there are two key stake holders with very different interests involved in the decision making processes. Port operators are attentive to their standards, a smooth service flow and economic viability while border agencies are concerned about national security. The time taken for security checks often interferes with the compliance to service standards that port operators would like to achieve. Decision support tools as for example Cost-Benefit Analysis or Multi Criteria Analysis are useful helpers to better understand the impact of changes to a system. They allow investigating future scenarios and helping to find solutions that are acceptable for all parties involved in port operations. In this paper we evaluate two different modelling methods, namely scenario analysis and discrete event simulation. These are useful for driving the decision support tools (i.e. they provide the inputs the decision support tools require). Our aims are, on the one hand, to guide the reader through the modelling processes and, on the other hand, to demonstrate what kind of decision support information one can obtain from the different modelling methods presented

Strategic Eurasian Natural Gas Model for Energy Security

The mathematical formulation of a large-scale equilibrium natural gas simulation model is presented. Although large-scale natural gas models have been developed and used for energy security and policy analysis quite extensively (e.g., Holz (2007), Egging et al. (2008), Holz et al. (2009) and Lise et al. (2008)), this model differs from earlier ones in its detailed representation of the structure and operations of the Former Soviet Union (FSU) gas sector. In particular, the model represents: (i) market power of transit countries, (ii) transmission pipelines in Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and Central Asia, (iii) differentiation among gas production regions in Russia, and (iv) gas trade relations between FSU countries (e.g., Gazprom’s re-exporting of Central Asian gas). To demonstrate the model, a social benefit-cost analysis of the Nord Stream gas pipeline project from Russia to Germany via the Baltic Sea is provided. It is found that Nord Stream project is profitable for its investors and the project also improves social welfare in all market power scenarios. Also, if transit countries (Ukraine and Belarus) exert substantial market power then the economic value of Nord Stream to its investors and to society improves substantially. We also found that the value of Nord Stream investment is rather sensitive to the degree of downstream competition in European markets and that lack of downstream competition might result in the negative value of the Nord Stream system to Gazprom

Renewable Electric Energy Integration: Quantifying the Value of Design of Markets for International Transmission Capacity

Integrating large quantities of supply-driven renewable electricity generation remains a political and operational challenge. One of the main obstacles in Europe to installing at least 200 GWs of power from variable renewable sources is how to deal with the insufficient network capacity and the congestion that will result from new flow patterns. We model the current methodology for controlling congestion at international borders and compare its results, under varying penetrations of wind power, with a model that simulates an integrated European network that utilises nodal/localised marginal pricing. The nodal pricing simulations illustrate that congestion - and price - patterns vary considerably between wind scenarios and within countries, and that a nodal price regime could make fuller use of existing EU network capacity, introducing substantial operational cost savings and reducing marginal power prices in the majority of European countries.Power market design, renewable power integration, congestion management, transmission economics

A survey of simulation techniques in commerce and defence

Despite the developments in Modelling and Simulation (M&S) tools and techniques over the past years, there has been a gap in the M&S research and practice in healthcare on developing a toolkit to assist the modellers and simulation practitioners with selecting an appropriate set of techniques. This study is a preliminary step towards this goal. This paper presents some results from a systematic literature survey on applications of M&S in the commerce and defence domains that could inspire some improvements in the healthcare. Interim results show that in the commercial sector Discrete-Event Simulation (DES) has been the most widely used technique with System Dynamics (SD) in second place. However in the defence sector, SD has gained relatively more attention. SD has been found quite useful for qualitative and soft factors analysis. From both the surveys it becomes clear that there is a growing trend towards using hybrid M&S approaches

Gas models and three difficult objectives

Competition, security of supply and sustainability are at the core of EU energy policy. The Commission argues that making the European gas market more competitive (completing the internal gas market) will be instrumental in the pursuit of these objectives. We examine the question through the eyes of existing models of the European gas market. Can model tell us anything on this problem? Do they confirm or infirm the analysis of the Commission appearing in fundamental documents such the Green Paper, the Sector Inquiry or the new legislation package? We argue that results of existing models contradict a fundamental finding (paragraph 77) of the Sector Inquiry. We further elaborate on the basis of the economic assumption underlying the models, that changing the assumptions implicitly contained in paragraph 77 cast doubts on a large part of the reasoning justifying the completion of the internal gas market. We also explain that models could help arriving at a better definition of the relevant market, which is so important in the reasoning of the Commission. Last we also find model results that question the effectiveness of ownership unbundling. As to security of supply, we explain that models can also contribute to assess the value of additional infrastructure in the context of security of supply, but this potential seems largely untapped. Last we note that sustainability has not yet penetrated models of gas markets. We conclude by suggesting other area of immediate concern, possibly of higher technical difficulty, that modellers could address in future research.

Potential applications of simulation modelling techniques in healthcare: lessons learned from aerospace and military

The Aerospace and Military areas are to do with complex missions and situations. Modelling and Simulation (M&S) has been applied in many areas of defence ranging from space sciences, satellite engineering to multi-warfare (air warfare, undersea warfare), air & missile defence, acquisition, tactical military trainings & exercises, national security analysis and strategic decision making & planning, etc. The application of simulation modelling techniques in healthcare would improve the provision of healthcare services; however, their application has been much relatively feeble in the healthcare sector as compared to the defence sector. This paper presents results from a systematic literature survey on applications of modelling simulation techniques in the Aerospace & Military. The knowledge gained or lessons learned from the survey were finally used to analyze the potential applications of the simulation modelling techniques to the healthcare sector. Results show that in the defence sector, Distributed Simulation has now become a widely adopted technique. However, System Dynamics (SD) and Discrete Event Simulation (DSE) have also gained relative attention. From this survey it becomes clear that various simulation modelling techniques are useful for specific purposes and have potential applications in the healthcare sector

State-contingent modelling of the Murray Darling Basin: implications for the design of property rights

Questions relating to the allocation and management of risk have played a central role in the development of the National Water Initiative, particularly as it has applied to the Murray-Darling Basin. The central issues of efficiency and equity in allocations are best understood by considering water licenses as bundles of state-contingent claims. The interaction of property rights and uncertainty regarding water flows, production and output prices is modelled using a state-contingent representation of production under uncertainty. The role of technology and investment in the determination of efficient adaptation strategies to manage risks is explored using an illustrative example.