Protecting valuable resources using optimal control theory and feedback strategies for plant disease management

Mathematical models of tree diseases often have little to say about how to manage established epidemics. Models often show that it is too late for successful disease eradication, but few study what management could still be beneficial. This study focusses on finding effective control strategies for managing sudden oak death, a tree disease caused by Phytophthora ramorum. Sudden oak death is a devastating disease spreading through forests in California and southwestern Oregon. The disease is well established and eradication is no longer possible. The ongoing spread of sudden oak death is threatening high value tree resources, including national parks, and culturally and ecologically important species like tanoak. In this thesis we show how the allocation of limited resources for controlling sudden oak death can be optimised to protect these valuable trees. We use simple, approximate models of sudden oak death dynamics, to which we apply the mathematical framework of optimal control theory. Applying the optimised controls from the approximate model to a complex, spatial simulation model, we demonstrate that the framework finds effective strategies for protecting tanoak, whilst also conserving biodiversity. When applied to the problem of protecting Redwood National Park, which is under threat from a nearby outbreak of sudden oak death, the framework finds spatial strategies that balance protective barriers with control at the epidemic wavefront. Because of the number of variables in the system, computational and numerical limitations restrict the control optimisation to relatively simple approximate models. We show how a lack of accuracy in the approximate model can be accounted for by using model predictive control, from control systems engineering: an approach coupling feedback with optimal control theory. Continued surveillance of the complex system, and re-optimisation of the control strategy, ensures that the result remains close to optimal, and leads to highly effective disease management. In this thesis we show how the machinery of optimal control theory can inform plant disease management, protecting valuable resources from sudden oak death. Incorporating feedback into the application of the resulting strategies ensures control remains effective over long timescales, and is robust to uncertainties and stochasticity in the system. Local management of sudden oak death is still possible, and our results show how this can be achieved

Forest Pathology and Plant Health

Every year, a number of new forest pathosystems are discovered as the result of introduction of alien pathogens, host shifts and jumps, hybridization and recombination among pathogens, etc. Disease outbreaks may also be favored by climate change and forest management. The mechanisms driving the resurgence of native pathogens and the invasion of alien ones need to be better understood in order to draft sustainable control strategies. For this Special Issue, we welcome population biology studies providing insights on the epidemiology and invasiveness of emergent forest pathogens possibly by contrasting different scenarios varying in pathogen and host populations size, genetics, phenotype and phenology, landscape fragmentation, occurrence of disturbances, management practices, etc. Both experimental and monitoring approaches are welcome. In summary, this special issue focuses on how variability in hosts, pathogens, or ecology may affect the emergence of new threats to plant species

Aerospace medicine and biology: A continuing bibliography with indexes (supplement 297)

This bibliography lists 89 reports, articles and other documents introduced into the NASA scientific and technical information system in April, 1987

Is there a solution to the spatial scale mismatch between ecological processes and agricultural management?

The major limit to develop robust landscape planning for biodiversity conservation is that the spatial levels of organization of landscape management by local actors rarely match with those of ecological processes. This problem, known as spatial scale mismatch, is recognized as a reason of lack of effectiveness of agri-environment schemes. We did a review to describe how authors identify the problem of spatial scale mismatch in the literature. The assumption is made that the solutions proposed in literature to conciliate agricultural management and conservation of biodiversity are based on theoretical frameworks that can be used to go towards an integration of management processes and ecological processes. Hierarchy Theory and Landscape Ecology are explicitly mobilized by authors who suggest multiscale and landscape scale approaches, respectively, to overcome the mismatch problem. Coordination in management is proposed by some authors but with no theoretical background explicitly mentioned. The theory of organization of biological systems and the theories of Social-Ecological Systems use the concept of coordination and integration as well as concepts of organization, adaptive capabilities and complexity of systems. These theories are useful to set up a new framework integrating ecological processes and agricultural management. Based on this review we made two hypotheses to explain difficulties to deal with spatial scale mismatch: (1) authors generally do not have an integrated approach since they consider separately ecological and management processes, and (2) an inaccurate use of terminology and theoretical frameworks partially explain the inadequacy of proposed solutions. We then specify some terms and highlight some ‘rules’ necessary to set up an integrative theoretical and methodological framework to deal with spatial scale mismatch.(Presentation des résumés n°186, p. 95-96, non paginé

Bark Beetle-Induced Changes to Crown Fuel Flammability and Crown Fire Potential

Recent outbreaks of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) in lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud. var. latifolia Engelm.) forests and spruce beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis Kirby) in Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii Parry ex Engelm.) forests have affected vast areas across western North America. The highlevels of tree mortality associated with these outbreaks have raised concerns amongst fire managers and wildland firefighters about the effects of the tree mortality on fire behavior, particularly crown fire behavior, as crown fires hinder the ability of firefighters to conduct safe and effective fire suppression operations. Current information regarding crown fire dynamics in recently attacked forests is limited to results obtained from simulations employing either inappropriate and/or unvalidated fire behavior models based on inadequate descriptions of crown fuel flammability. The purpose of this research was to measure and characterize the changes in crown fuel flammability caused y recent bark beetle attack and to describe the implications of these changes on crown fire potential in affected forests. Results indicated that bark beetle attack causes a significant decline in moisture content and change in chemical composition in lodgepole pine and Engelmann spruce tree foliage, which substantially increases foliage flammability. Additionally, it was found that conventional models used to predict the moisture content of fine, dead surface fuels were inappropriate for predicting the moisture content of foliage on mountain pine beetle-attacked lodgepole pine trees during the red stage. Therefore, calibrated operational models and models based on diffusion theory were developed and evaluated that could accurately predict hourly fluctuations in moisture content. The implications of these changes on crown fire potential are dependent upon a host of site specific factors including outbreak duration, severity, and the specific stand characteristics. Based on our results, we believe that current fire behavior models, including popular semi-empirical and physics-based models, are currently inadequate for accurately predicting crown fire potential in forests recently attacked by bark beetles. In order to make significant progress in our understanding of crown fire potential in recently attacked forests, a substantial effort to document wildfire behavior in the field and/or to conduct experimental fires is needed

Aerospace Medicine and Biology: A continuing bibliography with indexes, supplement 178

This bibliography lists 230 reports, articles, and other documents introduced into the NASA scientific and technical information system in February 1978

Aerospace Medicine and Biology: A continuing bibliography with indexes (supplement 261)

This bibliography lists 281 reports, articles and other documents introduced into the NASA scientific and technical information system in July 1984

Aerospace Medicine and Biology: A continuing bibliography with indexes, supplement 122, December 1973

This special bibliography lists 343 reports, articles, and other documents introduced into the NASA scientific and technical information system in November 1973

Invasive Species in Forests and Rangelands of the United States

This open access book describes the serious threat of invasive species to native ecosystems. Invasive species have caused and will continue to cause enormous ecological and economic damage with ever increasing world trade. This multi-disciplinary book, written by over 100 national experts, presents the latest research on a wide range of natural science and social science fields that explore the ecology, impacts, and practical tools for management of invasive species. It covers species of all taxonomic groups from insects and pathogens, to plants, vertebrates, and aquatic organisms that impact a diversity of habitats in forests, rangelands and grasslands of the United States. It is well-illustrated, provides summaries of the most important invasive species and issues impacting all regions of the country, and includes a comprehensive primary reference list for each topic. This scientific synthesis provides the cultural, economic, scientific and social context for addressing environmental challenges posed by invasive species and will be a valuable resource for scholars, policy makers, natural resource managers and practitioners

Aerospace medicine and biology: A continuing bibliography with indexes

This bibliography lists 224 reports, articles and other documents introduced into the NASA scientific and technical information system in February 1984