Southern Ocean warming: Increase in basal melting and grounded ice loss

We apply a global finite element sea ice/ice shelf/ocean model (FESOM) to the Antarctic marginal seas to analyze projections of ice shelf basal melting in a warmer climate. The model is forced with the atmospheric output from two climate models: (1) the Hadley Centre Climate Model (HadCM3) and (2) Max Planck Institute’s ECHAM5/MPI-OM. Results from their 20th-century simulations are used to evaluate the modeled present-day ocean state. Sea-ice coverage is largely realistic in both simulations. Modeled ice shelf basal melt rates compare well with observations in both cases, but are consistently smaller for ECHAM5/MPI-OM. Projections for future ice shelf basal melting are computed using atmospheric output for IPCC scenarios E1 and A1B. While trends in sea ice coverage, ocean heat content, and ice shelf basal melting are small in simulations forced with ECHAM5 data, a substantial shift towards a warmer regime is found in experiments forced with HadCM3 output. A strong sensitivity of basal melting to increased ocean temperatures is found for the ice shelves in the Amundsen Sea. For the cold-water ice shelves in the Ross and Weddell Seas,decreasing convection on the continental shelf in the HadCM3 scenarios leads to an erosion of the continental slope front and to warm water of open ocean origin entering the continental shelf. As this water reaches deep into the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf (FRIS) cavity, basal melting increases by a factor of three to six compared to the present value of about 100 Gt/yr. Highest melt rates at the deep FRIS grounding line causes a retreat of > 200km, equivalent to an land ice loss of 110 Gt/yr

How tropical Pacific surface cooling contributed to accelerated sea ice melt from 2007 to 2012 as ice is thinned by anthropogenic forcing

Over the past 40 years the Arctic sea ice minimum in September has declined. The period between 2007 and 2012 showed accelerated melt contributed to the record minima of 2007 and 2012. Here, observational and model evidence shows that the changes in summer sea ice since the 2000s reflects a continuous anthropogenically forced melting masked by interdecadal variability of Arctic atmospheric circulation. This variation is partially driven by teleconnections originating from sea surface temperature (SST) changes in the east-central tropical Pacific via a Rossby wave train propagating into the Arctic (hereafter referred to as the “Pacific-Arctic teleconnection (PARC)”), which represents the leading internal mode connecting the pole to lower latitudes. This mode has contributed to accelerated warming and Arctic sea ice loss from 2007 to 2012, followed by slower declines in recent years, resulting in the appearance of a slowdown over the past 11 years. A pacemaker model simulation, in which we specify observed SST in the tropical eastern Pacific, demonstrates a physically plausible mechanism for the PARC mode. However, the model-based PARC mechanism is considerably weaker and only partially accounts for the observed acceleration of sea ice loss from 2007 to 2012. We also explore features of large-scale circulation patterns associated with extreme melting periods in a long (1800-yr) CESM preindustrial simulation. These results further support the role of remote SST forcing originating from the tropical Pacific in exciting significant warm episodes in the Arctic. However, further research is needed to identify the reasons for model limitations in reproducing the observed PARC mode featuring a Cold Pacific - Warm Arctic connection

Morphology, lifecycles, and environmental sensitivities of tropical trimodal convection

Includes bibliographical references.2022 Fall.Convective clouds are ubiquitous in the tropics and typically follow a trimodal distribution of cumulus, congestus, and cumulonimbus clouds. Due to the crucial role each convective mode plays in tropical and global transport of heat and moisture, there has been both historical and recent interest in the characteristics, sensitivities, and lifecycles of these clouds. However, designing novel studies to further our knowledge has been challenging due to several limitations: the extensive computing resources needed to conduct modeling studies at sufficient resolution and scale to capture the trimodal distribution in detail; the lack of analysis tools which can objectively detect and track these clouds throughout their lifetime; and a need for more observational and modeling data of the tropical convective environments that produce these clouds. In this dissertation, three distinct but related studies that address these problems to advance the knowledge of our field on the morphology, lifecycles, and environmental sensitivities of tropical trimodal convection are presented. The first study examines the sensitivities of the tropical trimodal distribution and the convective environment to initial aerosol loading and low-level static stability. The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) configured as a Large Eddy Simulation (LES) is utilized to resolve all three modes in detail through two full diurnal cycles. Three initial static stabilities and three aerosol profiles are independently and simultaneously varied for a suite of nine simulations. This research found that (1) large aerosol loading and strong low-level static stability suppress the bulk environment and the intensity and coverage of convective clouds; (2) cloud and environmental responses to aerosol loading tend to be stronger than those from static stability; (3) the effects of aerosol and stability perturbations modulate each other substantially; (4) the deepest convection and highest dynamical intensity occur at moderate aerosol loading, rather than at low or high loading; and (5) most of the strongest feedbacks due to aerosol and stability perturbations are seen in the boundary layer (the latter being applied within the boundary layer themselves), though some are stronger above the freezing level. The second study presented seeks to further enhance an artificial intelligence analysis tool, the Tracking and Object-Based Analysis of Clouds (tobac) Python package, from both a scientific and procedural standpoint to enable a wider variety of research uses, including process-level studies of tropical trimodal convection. Scientific improvements to tobac v1.5 include an expansion of the tool from 2D to 3D analyses and the addition of a new spectral filtering tool. Procedural enhancements added include greater computational efficiency, data regridding capabilities, and treatments for processing data with singly or doubly periodic boundary conditions (PBCs). My distinct contributions to this work focused on the 2D to 3D expansion and the PBC treatment. These new capabilities are presented through figures, schematics, and discussion of the new science that tobac v1.5 facilitates, such as the analysis of large basin-scale datasets and detailed simulations of layered clouds, that would have been impossible before. Finally, the last study in this dissertation is a process-focused modeling study on the sensitivities of upscale growth of tropical trimodal convection to environmental aerosol loading. This project was enabled by the scientific and procedural improvements to tobac discussed in the second study, in particular the new abilities of tobac to detect and track objects in 3D and with model PBCs. Here, we used a subset of RAMS simulations from the first study, where only aerosol loading was changed and the upscale growth from shallow cumulus through congestus and cumulonimbus during the nighttime hours was investigated. This study revealed that moderately increasing aerosol loading enhances collision-coalescence processes in the middle of the cloud, which delays initial glaciation but promotes it later in the growth period. Greatly increasing aerosol, however, produces a cloud structure with a more extreme aspect ratio and greater entrainment aloft that rapidly loses buoyancy and vertical velocity with height, as well as exhibiting a greater amount of condensate loading towards the top of the cloud. We also found the relative timing of these processes to be especially important, with more rapid initial growth and lofting of condensate often inhibiting deeper convective growth

Examining the impacts of convective environments on storms using observations and numerical models

2022 Summer.Includes bibliographical references.Convective clouds are significant contributors to both weather and climate. While the basic environments supporting convective clouds are broadly known, there is currently no unifying theory on how joint variations in different environmental properties impact convective cloud properties. The overaching goal of this research is to assess the response of convective clouds to changes in the dynamic, thermodynamic and aerosol properties of the local environment. To achieve our goal, two tools for examining convective cloud properties and their environments are first described, developed and enhanced. This is followed by an examination of the response of convective clouds to changes in the dynamic, thermodynamic and aerosol properties using these enhanced tools. In the first study comprising this dissertation, we assess the performance of small temperature, pressure, and humidity sensors onboard drones used to sample convective environments and convective cloud outflows by comparing them to measurements made from a tethersonde platform suspended at the same height. Using 82 total drone flights, including nine at night, the following determinations about sensor accuracy are made. First, when examining temperature, the nighttime flight temperature errors are found to have a smaller range than the daytime temperature errors, indicating that much of the daytime error arises from exposure to solar radiation. The pressure errors demonstrate a strong dependence on horizontal wind speed with all of the error distributions being multimodal in high wind conditions. Finally, dewpoint temperature errors are found to be larger than temperature errors. We conclude that measurements in field campaigns are more accurate when sensors are placed away from the drone's main body and associated propeller wash and are sufficiently aspirated and shielded from incoming solar radiation. The Tracking and Object-Based Analysis of Clouds (tobac) tracking package is a commonly used tracking package in atmospheric science that allows for tracking of atmospheric phenomena on any variable and on any grid. We have enhanced the tobac tracking package to enable it to be used on more atmospheric phenomena, with a wider variety of atmospheric data and across more diverse platforms than before. New scientific improvements (three spatial dimensions and an internal spectral filtering tool) and procedural improvements (enhanced computational efficiency, internal re-gridding of data, and treatments for periodic boundary conditions) comprising this new version of tobac (v1.5) are described in the second study of this dissertation. These improvements have made tobac one of the most robust, powerful, and flexible identification and tracking tools in our field and expanded its potential use in other fields. In the third study of this dissertation, we examine the relationship between the thermodynamic and dynamic environmental properties and deep convective clouds forming in the tropical atmosphere. To elucidate this relationship, we employ a high-resolution, long-duration, large-area numerical model simulation alongside tobac to build a database of convective clouds and their environments. With this database, we examine differences in the initial environment associated with individual storm strength, organization, and morphology. We find that storm strength, defined here as maximum midlevel updraft velocity, is controlled primarily by Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and Precipitable Water (PW); high CAPE (>2500 J kg-1) and high PW (approximately 63 mm) are both required for midlevel CCC updraft velocities to reach at least 10 m s-1. Of the CCCs with the most vigorous updrafts, 80.9% are in the upper tercile of precipitation rates, with the strongest precipitation rates requiring even higher PW. Furthermore, vertical wind shear is the primary differentiator between organized and isolated convective storms. Within the set of organized storms, we also find that linearly-oriented CCC systems have significantly weaker vertical wind shear than nonlinear CCCs in low- (0-1 km, 0-3 km) and mid-levels (0-5 km, 2-7 km). Overall, these results provide new insights into the joint environmental conditions determining the CCC properties in the tropical atmosphere. Finally, in the fourth study of this dissertation, we build upon the third study by examining the relationship between the aerosol environment and convective precipitation using the same simulations and tracking approaches as in the third study. As the environmental aerosol concentrations are increased, the total domain-wide precipitation decreases (-3.4%). Despite the overall decrease in precipitation, the number of tracked terminal congestus clouds increases (+8%), while the number of tracked cumulonimbus clouds is decreased (-1.26%). This increase in the number of congestus clouds is accompanied by an overall weakening in their rainfall as aerosol concentration increases, with a decrease in overall rain rates and an increase in the number of clouds that do not precipitate (+10.7%). As aerosol particles increase, overall cloud droplet size gets smaller, suppressing the initial generation of rain and leading to clouds evaporating due to entrainment before they are able to precipitate

Modelling investigation of interaction between Arctic sea ice and storms: insights from case studies and climatological hindcast simulations

Thesis (Ph.D.) University of Alaska Fairbanks, 2019The goal of this study is to improve understanding of atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean interactions in the context of Arctic storm activities. The reduction of Arctic sea ice extent, increase in ocean water temperatures, and changes of atmospheric circulation have been manifested in the Arctic Ocean along with the large surface air temperature increase during recent decades. All of these changes may change the way in which atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean interact, which may in turn feedback to Arctic surface air warming. To achieve the goal, we employed an integrative approach including analysis of modeling simulation results and conducting specifically designed model sensitivity experiments. The novelty of this study is linking synoptic scale storms to large-scale changes in sea ice and atmospheric circulation. The models were used in this study range from the regional fully coupled Arctic climate model HIRHAM-NAOSIM to the ocean-sea ice component model of the Community Earth System Model CESM and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Analysis of HIRHAM-NAOSIM simulation outputs shows regionally dependent variability of storm count with a higher number of storms over the Atlantic side than over the Pacific side. High-resolution simulations also reproduce higher number of storms than lower resolution reanalysis dataset. This is because the high-resolution model may capture more shallow and small size storms. As an integrated consequence, the composite analysis shows that more numerous intense storms produce low-pressure systems centered over the Barents-Kara-Laptev seas and the Chukchi-East Siberian seas, leading to anomalous cyclonic circulation over the Atlantic Arctic Ocean and Pacific Arctic Ocean. Correspondingly, anomalous sea ice transport occurs, enhancing sea ice outflow out of the Barents-Kara-Laptev sea ice and weakening sea ice inflow into the Chukchi-Beaufort seas from the thick ice area north of the Canadian Archipelago. This change in sea ice transport causes a decrease in sea ice concentration and thickness in these two areas. However, energy budget analysis exhibits a decrease in downward net sea ice heat fluxes, reducing sea ice melt, when more numerous intense storms occur. This decrease could be attributed to increased cloudiness and destabilized atmospheric boundary layer associated with intense storms, which can result in a decrease in downward shortwave radiation and an increase in upward turbulent heat fluxes. The sea ice-ocean component CICE-POP of Community Earth System Model (CESM) was used to conduct sensitivity experiment to examine impacts of two selected storms on sea ice. CICE-POP is generally able to simulate the observed spatial distribution of the Arctic sea-ice concentration, thickness, and motion, and interannual variability of the Arctic sea ice area for the period 1979 to 2011. However, some biases still exit, including overestimated sea-ice drift speeds, particularly in the Transpolar Drift Stream, and overestimated sea-ice concentration in the Atlantic Arctic but slightly underestimated sea ice concentration in the Pacific Arctic. Analysis of CICE-POP sensitivity experiments suggests that dynamic forcing associated with the storms plays more important driving role in causing sea ice changes than thermodynamics does in the case of storm in March 2011, while both thermodynamic and dynamic forcings have comparable impacts on sea ice decrease in the case of the August 2012. In case of March 2011 storm, increased surface winds caused the reduction of sea ice area in the Barents and Kara Seas by forcing sea ice to move eastward. Sea ice reduction was primarily driven by mechanical processes rather than ice melting. On the contrary, the case study of August 2012 storm, that occurred during the Arctic summer, exemplified the case of equal contribution of mechanical sea ice redistribution of sea ice in the Chukchi - East Siberian - Beaufort seas and melt in sea ice reduction. To understand the impacts of the changed Arctic environment on storm dynamics, we carried out WRF model simulations for a selected Arctic storm that occurred in March 2011. Model output highlight the importance of both increased surface turbulent heat fluxes due to sea ice retreat and self-enhanced warm and moist air advection from the North Atlantic into the Arctic. These external forcing factor and internal dynamic process sustain and even strengthen atmospheric baroclinicity, supporting the storm to develop and intensify. Additional sensitivity experiments further suggest that latent heat release resulting from condensation/precipitation within the storm enhances baroclinicity aloft and, in turn, causes a re-intensification of the storm from its decaying phase.NSF Grant #1023592 and ONR-Glable Grant #N62909-13-1-V219Chapter 1: Introduction and motivation -- 1.1: Arctic climate system: current state and mechanisms of ongoing change -- 1.2: Arctic climate system feedbacks -- 1.3: Motivations -- 1.4: Implications of Arctic climate change to socio-economic activity -- 1.5: Research goal and objectives -- 1.6: Methods and research approach -- 1.7: Thesis structure. Chapter 2: Climatology of Arctic cyclones and impacts on sea ice: results from regional fully coupled model hindcast simulations -- 2.1: Introduction -- 2.2: Data and methods -- 2.2.1: Model data -- 2.2.2: Cyclone identification algorithm -- 2.2.3: Composite analysis -- 2.3: Results and discussion -- 2.3.1: Arctic storm analysis -- 2.3.2: Impact on sea ice and ocean. Chapter 3: Processes associated with cyclone impacts on sea ice: a case study using sea ice-ocean model simulations -- 3.1: Introduction -- 3.1.1: Dynamic forcing of Arctic cyclones on sea ice -- 3.1.2: Thermodynamic impact of Arctic storms on sea ice -- 3.1.3: Sea ice momentum and mass balance -- 3.1.4: Sea ice surface heat budget -- 3.2: Data and methods -- 3.2.1: Model description -- 3.2.2: Forcing and initialization -- 3.2.3: Experimental design -- 3.2.4: Model validation -- 3.3: March 2011 cyclone -- 3.3.1: Dynamic vs thermodynamic forcing on sea ice -- 3.4: August 2012 cyclone -- 3.4.1: Dynamic and thermodynamic forcing on sea ice -- 3.5: Comparison of March 2011 and August 2012 storms. Chapter 4: Possible processes and forcing in Arctic cyclone development: a case study with WRF model simulations -- 4.1: Introduction -- 4.2: Synoptic analysis for March 16 - 22, 2011 -- 4.3: Model configuration -- 4.4: Model experimental design -- 4.5: Model validation -- 4.6: Results and discussions -- 4.6.1: Baroclinic instability -- 4.6.2: Sensitivity to decreased sea ice concentration and elevated SST -- 4.6.3: Sensitivity to latent heat release. Chapter 5: Conclusions and discussions -- References

How Water's Properties Are Encoded in Its Molecular Structure and Energies.

How are water's material properties encoded within the structure of the water molecule? This is pertinent to understanding Earth's living systems, its materials, its geochemistry and geophysics, and a broad spectrum of its industrial chemistry. Water has distinctive liquid and solid properties: It is highly cohesive. It has volumetric anomalies-water's solid (ice) floats on its liquid; pressure can melt the solid rather than freezing the liquid; heating can shrink the liquid. It has more solid phases than other materials. Its supercooled liquid has divergent thermodynamic response functions. Its glassy state is neither fragile nor strong. Its component ions-hydroxide and protons-diffuse much faster than other ions. Aqueous solvation of ions or oils entails large entropies and heat capacities. We review how these properties are encoded within water's molecular structure and energies, as understood from theories, simulations, and experiments. Like simpler liquids, water molecules are nearly spherical and interact with each other through van der Waals forces. Unlike simpler liquids, water's orientation-dependent hydrogen bonding leads to open tetrahedral cage-like structuring that contributes to its remarkable volumetric and thermal properties

A numerical study of the Southern Ocean including a thermodynamic active ice shelf - Part 1: Weddell Sea

There is a great amount of uncertainty regarding the understanding of the atmosphere-ocean-cryosphere interactions in the Southern Ocean despite the role that the region plays in our changing climate. With the aim of studying the relative importance of sea-ice and ice shelf processes in the Southern Ocean, a coupled ocean circulation sea-ice/ice shelf cavity model based on the Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS) is used in a periodic circumpolar domain with enhanced resolution in the Weddell Sea. A hierarchy of numerical experiments is performed where first a sea-ice model is used and then an ice shelf thermodynamic parameterization is included in order to evaluate the improvements resulting from each component. Results show that it is necessary to consider the formation and melting of sea-ice in order to adequately reproduce the observed hydrography and circulation. Inclusion of ice shelves cavities in the model only improves results if the ice shelf-ocean thermodynamic fluxes are active. Ice shelves and ocean interactions are an important process to be considered in order to obtain realistic hydrographic values under the ice shelf. The model framework presented in this work is a promising tool for analyzing the Southern Ocean response to future climate change scenarios

Artic-North Atlantic interactions and multidecadal variability of the thermohaline circulation

Analyses of a 500-yr control integration with the non-flux-adjusted coupled atmosphere–sea ice–ocean model ECHAM5/Max-Planck-Institute Ocean Model (MPI-OM) show pronounced multidecadal fluctuations of the Atlantic overturning circulation and the associated meridional heat transport. The period of the oscillations is about 70–80 yr. The low-frequency variability of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) contributes substantially to sea surface temperature and sea ice fluctuations in the North Atlantic. The strength of the overturning circulation is related to the convective activity in the deep-water formation regions, most notably the Labrador Sea, and the time-varying control on the freshwater export from the Arctic to the convection sites modulates the overturning circulation. The variability is sustained by an interplay between the storage and release of freshwater from the central Arctic and circulation changes in the Nordic Seas that are caused by variations in the Atlantic heat and salt transport. The relatively high resolution in the deep-water formation region and the Arctic Ocean suggests that a better representation of convective and frontal processes not only leads to an improvement in the mean state but also introduces new mechanisms determining multidecadal variability in large-scale ocean circulation