A model to estimate the lifetime health outcomes of patients with Type 2 diabetes: the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) Outcomes Model (UKPDS no. 68)

<i>Aims/hypothesis</i> The aim of this study was to develop a simulation model for Type 2 diabetes that can be used to estimate the likely occurrence of major diabetes-related complications over a lifetime, in order to calculate health economic outcomes such as quality-adjusted life expectancy. <i>Methods</i> Equations for forecasting the occurrence of seven diabetes-related complications and death were estimated using data on 3642 patients from the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS). After examining the internal validity, the UKPDS Outcomes Model was used to simulate the mean difference in expected quality-adjusted life years between the UKPDS regimens of intensive and conventional blood glucose control. <i>Results</i> The models forecasts fell within the 95% confidence interval for the occurrence of observed events during the UKPDS follow-up period. When the model was used to simulate event history over patients lifetimes, those treated with a regimen of conventional glucose control could expect 16.35 undiscounted quality-adjusted life years, and those receiving treatment with intensive glucose control could expect 16.62 quality-adjusted life years, a difference of 0.27 (95% CI: –0.48 to 1.03). <i>Conclusions/interpretations</i> The UKPDS Outcomes Model is able to simulate event histories that closely match observed outcomes in the UKPDS and that can be extrapolated over patients lifetimes. Its validity in estimating outcomes in other groups of patients, however, remains to be evaluated. The model allows simulation of a range of long-term outcomes, which should assist in informing future economic evaluations of interventions in Type 2 diabetes

Cost-Effectiveness of Intensified Versus Conventional Multifactorial Intervention in Type 2 Diabetes: Results and projections from the Steno-2 study

OBJECTIVE—To assess the cost-effectiveness of intensive versus conventional therapy for 8 years as applied in the Steno-2 study in patients with type 2 diabetes and microalbuminuria

SPHR Diabetes Prevention Model: Detailed Description of Model Background, Methods, Assumptions and Parameters

Type-2 diabetes is a complex disease with multiple risk factors and health consequences whose prevention is a major public health priority. We have developed a microsimulation model written in the R programming language that can evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a comprehensive range of different diabetes prevention interventions, either in the general population or in subgroups at high risk of diabetes. Within the model individual patients with different risk factors for diabetes follow metabolic trajectories (for body mass index, cholesterol, systolic blood pressure and glycaemia), develop diabetes, complications of diabetes and related disorders including cardiovascular disease and cancer, and eventually die. Lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life-years are collected for each patient. The model allows assessment of the wider social impact on employment and the equity impact of different interventions. Interventions may be population-based, community-based or individually targeted, and administered singly or layered together. The model is fully enabled for probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) to provide an estimate of decision uncertainty. This discussion paper provides a detailed description of the model background, methods and assumptions, together with details of all parameters used in the model, their sources and distributions for PSA

Nesiritide: Harmful or Harmless?

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/90328/1/phco.26.10.1465.pd

Cost-effectiveness of pioglitazone in type 2 diabetes patients with a history of macrovascular disease: a German perspective

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Licens

Long-term outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes receiving glimepiride combined with liraglutide or rosiglitazone

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Poor control of type 2 diabetes results in substantial long-term consequences. Studies of new diabetes treatments are rarely designed to assess mortality, complication rates and costs. We sought to estimate the long-term consequences of liraglutide and rosiglitazone both added to glimepiride.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>To estimate long-term clinical and economic consequences, we used the CORE diabetes model, a validated cohort model that uses epidemiologic data from long-term clinical trials to simulate morbidity, mortality and costs of diabetes. Clinical data were extracted from the LEAD-1 trial evaluating two doses (1.2 mg and 1.8 mg) of a once daily GLP-1 analog liraglutide, or rosiglitazone 4 mg, on a background of glimepiride in type 2 diabetes. CORE was calibrated to the LEAD-1 baseline patient characteristics. Survival, cumulative incidence of cardiovascular, ocular and renal events and healthcare costs were estimated over three periods: 10, 20 and 30 years.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In a hypothetical cohort of 5000 patients per treatment followed for 30 years, liraglutide 1.2 mg and 1.8 mg had higher survival rates compared to the group treated with rosiglitazone (15.0% and 16.0% vs. 12.6% after 30 years), and fewer cardiovascular, renal, and ocular events. Cardiovascular death rates after 30 years were 69.7%, 68.4% and 72.5%, for liraglutide 1.2 mg, 1.8 mg, and rosiglitazone, respectively. First and recurrent amputations were lower in the rosiglitazone group, probably due to a 'survival paradox' in the liraglutide arms (number of events: 565, 529, and 507, respectively). Overall cumulative costs per patient, were lower in both liraglutide groups compared to rosiglitazone (US$38,963,$39,239, and $40,401 for liraglutide 1.2 mg, 1.8 mg, and rosiglitazone, respectively), mainly driven by the costs of cardiovascular events in all groups.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Using data from LEAD-1 and epidemiologic evidence from the CORE diabetes model, projected rates of mortality, diabetes complications and healthcare costs over the long term favor liraglutide plus glimepiride over rosiglitazone plus glimepiride.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>LEAD-1 NCT00318422; LEAD-2 NCT00318461; LEAD-3 NCT 00294723; LEAD-4 NCT00333151; LEAD-5 NCT00331851; LEAD-6 NCT00518882.</p

Characterization of severe and complicated hypertension in Mozambican adults

Background and aims: Hypertension is a public health problem and a major reason for hospitalisation and death. In Mozambique, low levels of detection, treatment and control have been described. However, data on target-organ damage and associated clinical conditions is lacking. We therefore aimed at characterising the clinical profile of patients with severe hypertension, describing the pattern of target organ damage and determining the outcomes at 6-month follow-up. Methods: We designed a prospective descriptive cohort study to assess adult patients with severe hypertension defined according to the Joint National Committee VII guidelines. The study was conducted from July 2015 to May 2017 at Mavalane General Hospital in Maputo-Mozambique. Patients were characterized through physical examination, laboratory profile, electrocardiography, and echocardiography, and followed for six months to assess occurrence of complications such as hypertensive heart failure, stroke, renal failure, hospital admission and death. Data were analysed using SPSS software version 20.0. The study was approved by the National Bioethics Committee for Health of Mozambique. Results: We studied 116 subjects (111 [95.7%] black; women 81 [70%]). Women were slightly younger than men (mean 57 years vs 59 years); 18 (15.5%) patients were younger than 44 years. The risk profile of the studied population included obesity (46; 42.5%); dyslipidaemia (59; 54.1%); diabetes (10; 8.6%) and smoking (8; 6.9%). At baseline, mean values for systolic and diastolic blood pressure were 192.3 ± 23.6 and 104.2 ± 15.2, respectively. The most frequent target-organ damage were left atrial enlargement in 91 (88.3%) with atrial fibrillation in 9 (7.9%); left ventricular hypertrophy in 57 (50.4%); hypertensive retinopathy in 30 (26. 3%) and renal damage in 29 (25.7%) subjects. Major events during 6-month follow-up were hospitalisations (12; 10.3%) and death (10; 8.6%). Renal damage (4; 4.2%), stroke (4; 3.4%) and heart failure (2; 1.7%) were the most common complications occurring over the follow up period. Conclusion: Severe and complicated hypertension affects young people with higher incidence of obesity, diabetes and smoking than that found in general population. High occurrence of target organ damage is found at baseline, particularly heart damage, renal lesion and stroke. On follow up, severe hypertension is associated with high number of hospitalisations and high case-fatality rate. Moreover, renal damage, stroke and hypertensive heart disease were common complications on follow up. Further research is needed to understand the determinants of these poor outcomes

A Propensity-Matched, Mortality-Adjusted Study of Palliative Care Consult to Reduce 90-day Hospital Readmission in a Heart Failure Cohort

Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) instituted the Hospital Readmission Reduction Program (HRRP) to reduce the frequency of heart failure (HF) 30-day hospital readmissions. To meet the needs of patients with end-stage HF, palliative care (PC) is promoted to provide additional support to patients and reduceunnecessary hospital readmission. While PC is a plausible and logical intervention, effectiveness in achieving reductions in readmissions has not been assessed ina HF population with adequate controls to assess confounding. The goal of this research was to assess the effectiveness of Palliative care for HF (HFPC) consult to effect change in 90-day hospital readmissions in apropensity-matched model that adequately controls for mortality at a single-site 526-bed tertiary-care facility. Index hospitalization for live HF discharges: Oct 1 - Dec. 31, 2019, n= 250. Propensity matching helped to achieve a more homogeneous population with less variability ensuring a greater likelihood of observing an accurate and valid assessment of the outcome of interest. Results were statistically significant for a strong association between HFPC consult and 90-day hospital readmission in a propensity-matched population. Logistic regression found a statistically significant association between HFPC and 90-d hospital readmission, p\u3c .001. The logit transformation of the HFPC factor, OR 4.3, 95% CI [1.8 - 10.6] . Survival analysis demonstrates that time to readmission happens more frequently in patients who have a HFPC consult, readmissions occur earlier inthe post-discharge period and are strongly skewed to the immediate 30d post-discharge period. \u3e50% of HF patients who have a HFPC consult experience a hospitalreadmission within 30 days of discharge. \u3e75% of HF patients who have a HFPC consult will have a hospital readmission within 90 days of discharge. This study demonstrates that while HFPC may be an important aspect of continuity of care and care planning for HF patients, it has a strong negative association with the objective of reducing hospital readmissions. HFPC consult predicts earlier hospital re-admissions in this HF population with high morbidity, approaching end-of-life