Sensitivity Analysis of Simulation Models

This contribution presents an overview of sensitivity analysis of simulation models, including the estimation of gradients. It covers classic designs and their corresponding (meta)models; namely, resolution-III designs including fractional-factorial two-level designs for first-order polynomial metamodels, resolution-IV and resolution-V designs for metamodels augmented with two-factor interactions, and designs for second-degree polynomial metamodels including central composite designs. It also reviews factor screening for simulation models with very many factors, focusing on the so-called "sequential bifurcation" method. Furthermore, it reviews Kriging metamodels and their designs. It mentions that sensitivity analysis may also aim at the optimization of the simulated system, allowing multiple random simulation outputs.simulation;sensitivity analysis;gradients;screening;Kriging;optimization;Response SurfaceMethodology;Taguchi

Observability of quality features of sheet metal parts based on metamodels

Deep drawn sheet metal parts are increasingly designed to the feasibility limit, thus achieving a robust process is often challenging. The fluctuation of process and material properties often leads to robustness problems. Especially skid impact lines can cause visible changes of the surface fine structure even after painting. Numerical simulations are used to detect critical regions and the influences on the skid impact lines. To enhance the agreement with the real process conditions, the measured material data and the force distribution are taken into account. The simulation metamodel contains the virtual knowledge of a particular forming process, which is determined based on a series of finite element simulations with variable input parameters. Based on these metamodels, innovative process windows can be displayed to determine the influences on the critical regions and on skid impact lines. By measuring the draw-in of the part, sensor positions can be identified. Each sensor observes the accordant quality criterion and is hence able to quantify potential splits, insufficient stretching, wrinkles or skid impact lines. Furthermore the virtual draw-in sensors and quality criteria are particularly useful for the assessment of the process observation of a subsequent process control

Coordination of Coupled Black Box Simulations in the Construction of Metamodels

This paper introduces methods to coordinate black box simulations in the construction of metamodels for situations in which we have to deal with coupled black boxes.We de.ne three coordination methods: parallel simulation, sequential simulation and sequential modeling.To compare these three methods we focus on .ve aspects: throughput time, .exibility, simulated product designs, coordination complexityand the use of prior information.Special attention is given to the throughput time aspect.For this aspect we derive mathematical formulas and we give relations between the throughput times of the three coordination methods.At the end of this paper we summarize the results and give recommendations on the choice of a suitable coordination method.simulation;simulation models;coordination;black box;metamodels

Evaluation of Kermeta for Solving Graph-based Problems

Kermeta is a meta-language for specifying the structure and behavior of graphs of interconnected objects called models. In this paper,\ud we show that Kermeta is relatively suitable for solving three graph-based\ud problems. First, Kermeta allows the specification of generic model\ud transformations such as refactorings that we apply to different metamodels\ud including Ecore, Java, and Uml. Second, we demonstrate the extensibility\ud of Kermeta to the formal language Alloy using an inter-language model\ud transformation. Kermeta uses Alloy to generate recommendations for\ud completing partially specified models. Third, we show that the Kermeta\ud compiler achieves better execution time and memory performance compared\ud to similar graph-based approaches using a common case study. The\ud three solutions proposed for those graph-based problems and their\ud evaluation with Kermeta according to the criteria of genericity,\ud extensibility, and performance are the main contribution of the paper.\ud Another contribution is the comparison of these solutions with those\ud proposed by other graph-based tools

Simulation-Optimization via Kriging and Bootstrapping:A Survey (Revision of CentER DP 2011-064)

Abstract: This article surveys optimization of simulated systems. The simulation may be either deterministic or random. The survey reflects the author’s extensive experience with simulation-optimization through Kriging (or Gaussian process) metamodels. The analysis of these metamodels may use parametric bootstrapping for deterministic simulation or distribution-free bootstrapping (or resampling) for random simulation. The survey covers: (1) Simulation-optimization through "efficient global optimization" (EGO) using "expected improvement" (EI); this EI uses the Kriging predictor variance, which can be estimated through parametric bootstrapping accounting for estimation of the Kriging parameters. (2) Optimization with constraints for multiple random simulation outputs and deterministic inputs through mathematical programming applied to Kriging metamodels validated through distribution-free bootstrapping. (3) Taguchian robust optimization for uncertain environments, using mathematical programming— applied to Kriging metamodels— and distribution- free bootstrapping to estimate the variability of the Kriging metamodels and the resulting robust solution. (4) Bootstrapping for improving convexity or preserving monotonicity of the Kriging metamodel.

Solving optimisation problems in metal forming using Finite Element simulation and metamodelling techniques

During the last decades, Finite Element (FEM) simulations\ud of metal forming processes have become important\ud tools for designing feasible production processes. In more\ud recent years, several authors recognised the potential of\ud coupling FEM simulations to mathematical optimisation\ud algorithms to design optimal metal forming processes instead\ud of only feasible ones.\ud Within the current project, an optimisation strategy is being\ud developed, which is capable of optimising metal forming\ud processes in general using time consuming nonlinear\ud FEM simulations. The expression “optimisation strategy”\ud is used to emphasise that the focus is not solely on solving\ud optimisation problems by an optimisation algorithm, but\ud the way these optimisation problems in metal forming are\ud modelled is also investigated. This modelling comprises\ud the quantification of objective functions and constraints\ud and the selection of design variables.\ud This paper, however, is concerned with the choice for\ud and the implementation of an optimisation algorithm for\ud solving optimisation problems in metal forming. Several\ud groups of optimisation algorithms can be encountered in\ud metal forming literature: classical iterative, genetic and\ud approximate optimisation algorithms are already applied\ud in the field. We propose a metamodel based optimisation\ud algorithm belonging to the latter group, since approximate\ud algorithms are relatively efficient in case of time consuming\ud function evaluations such as the nonlinear FEM calculations\ud we are considering. Additionally, approximate optimisation\ud algorithms strive for a global optimum and do\ud not need sensitivities, which are quite difficult to obtain\ud for FEM simulations. A final advantage of approximate\ud optimisation algorithms is the process knowledge, which\ud can be gained by visualising metamodels.\ud In this paper, we propose a sequential approximate optimisation\ud algorithm, which incorporates both Response\ud Surface Methodology (RSM) and Design and Analysis\ud of Computer Experiments (DACE) metamodelling techniques.\ud RSM is based on fitting lower order polynomials\ud by least squares regression, whereas DACE uses Kriging\ud interpolation functions as metamodels. Most authors in\ud the field of metal forming use RSM, although this metamodelling\ud technique was originally developed for physical\ud experiments that are known to have a stochastic na-\ud ¤Faculty of Engineering Technology (Applied Mechanics group),\ud University of Twente, P.O. Box 217, 7500 AE, Enschede, The Netherlands,\ud email: [email protected]\ud ture due to measurement noise present. This measurement\ud noise is absent in case of deterministic computer experiments\ud such as FEM simulations. Hence, an interpolation\ud model fitted by DACE is thought to be more applicable in\ud combination with metal forming simulations. Nevertheless,\ud the proposed algorithm utilises both RSM and DACE\ud metamodelling techniques.\ud As a Design Of Experiments (DOE) strategy, a combination\ud of a maximin spacefilling Latin Hypercubes Design\ud and a full factorial design was implemented, which takes\ud into account explicit constraints. Additionally, the algorithm\ud incorporates cross validation as a metamodel validation\ud technique and uses a Sequential Quadratic Programming\ud algorithm for metamodel optimisation. To overcome\ud the problem of ending up in a local optimum, the\ud SQP algorithm is initialised from every DOE point, which\ud is very time efficient since evaluating the metamodels can\ud be done within a fraction of a second. The proposed algorithm\ud allows for sequential improvement of the metamodels\ud to obtain a more accurate optimum.\ud As an example case, the optimisation algorithm was applied\ud to obtain the optimised internal pressure and axial\ud feeding load paths to minimise wall thickness variations\ud in a simple hydroformed product. The results are satisfactory,\ud which shows the good applicability of metamodelling\ud techniques to optimise metal forming processes using\ud time consuming FEM simulations

Mechanical MNIST: A benchmark dataset for mechanical metamodels

Metamodels, or models of models, map defined model inputs to defined model outputs. Typically, metamodels are constructed by generating a dataset through sampling a direct model and training a machine learning algorithm to predict a limited number of model outputs from varying model inputs. When metamodels are constructed to be computationally cheap, they are an invaluable tool for applications ranging from topology optimization, to uncertainty quantification, to multi-scale simulation. By nature, a given metamodel will be tailored to a specific dataset. However, the most pragmatic metamodel type and structure will often be general to larger classes of problems. At present, the most pragmatic metamodel selection for dealing with mechanical data has not been thoroughly explored. Drawing inspiration from the benchmark datasets available to the computer vision research community, we introduce a benchmark data set (Mechanical MNIST) for constructing metamodels of heterogeneous material undergoing large deformation. We then show examples of how our benchmark dataset can be used, and establish baseline metamodel performance. Because our dataset is readily available, it will enable the direct quantitative comparison between different metamodeling approaches in a pragmatic manner. We anticipate that it will enable the broader community of researchers to develop improved metamodeling techniques for mechanical data that will surpass the baseline performance that we show here.Accepted manuscrip

Towards maintainer script modernization in FOSS distributions

Free and Open Source Software (FOSS) distributions are complex software systems, made of thousands packages that evolve rapidly, independently, and without centralized coordination. During packages upgrades, corner case failures can be encountered and are hard to deal with, especially when they are due to misbehaving maintainer scripts: executable code snippets used to finalize package configuration. In this paper we report a software modernization experience, the process of representing existing legacy systems in terms of models, applied to FOSS distributions. We present a process to define meta-models that enable dealing with upgrade failures and help rolling back from them, taking into account maintainer scripts. The process has been applied to widely used FOSS distributions and we report about such experiences

Metamodel variability analysis combining bootstrapping and validation techniques

Research on metamodel-based optimization has received considerably increasing interest in recent years, and has found successful applications in solving computationally expensive problems. The joint use of computer simulation experiments and metamodels introduces a source of uncertainty that we refer to as metamodel variability. To analyze and quantify this variability, we apply bootstrapping to residuals derived as prediction errors computed from cross-validation. The proposed method can be used with different types of metamodels, especially when limited knowledge on parameters’ distribution is available or when a limited computational budget is allowed. Our preliminary experiments based on the robust version of the EOQ model show encouraging results