Regional young child poverty in 2008: rural Midwest sees increased poverty, while urban Northeast rates decrease

In 2008, America\u27s recession affected poverty rates for children under age 6 unevenly, with rates in the rural Midwest rising significantly, while rates in northeastern central cities fell slightly. And in the rural South, where more than 30 percent of young children are poor, poverty rates for young children persisted at a very high rate. This is an analysis of American Community Survey data released by the U.S. Census Bureau

Measuring Poverty at the State Level

Outlines a model for using the National Academy of Sciences poverty measure, which accounts for all income, non-discretionary work and out-of-pocket health expenses, and geographic cost variations, to estimate the effects of poverty reduction policies

USE OF SIMULATION IN PLANNING

Community/Rural/Urban Development, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

ABSTRACTS: CONTRIBUTED PAPERS

Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession,

Potential Economic Consequences of Local Nonconformity to Regional Land Use and Transportation Plans Using a Spatial Economic Model

To achieve the greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets that are required by California’s global warming legislation (AB32), the state of California has determined that recent growth trends in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) must be curtailed. In recognition of this, Senate Bill 375 (SB375) requires regional governments to develop land use and transportation plans or Sustainable Community Strategies (SCSs) that will achieve regional GHG targets largely though reduced VMT. Although the bill requires such a plan, it does not require local governments to adopt general plans that conform to this plan. In California, it is local, not regional, governments that have authority over land development decisions. Instead, SB375 relies on democratic participatory processes and relatively modest financial and regulatory incentives for SCS implementation. As a result, it is quite possible that some local governments within a region may decide not to conform to their SCS. In this study, a spatial economic model (PECAS) is applied in the Sacramento region (California, U.S.) to understand what the economic and equity consequences might be to jurisdictions that do and do not implement SCS land use plans in a region. An understanding of these consequences provides insight into jurisdictions’ motivations for compliance and thus, strategies for more effective implementation of SB375

Beyond Oaxaca-Blinder: Accounting for Differences in Household Income Distributions Across Countries

This paper develops a micro-econometric method to account for differences across distributions of household income. Going beyond the determination of earnings in labor markets, we also estimate statistical models for occupational choice and for the conditional distributions of education, fertility and non-labor incomes. We import combinations of estimated parameters from these models to simulate counterfactual income distributions. This allows us to decompose differences between functionals of two income distributions (such as inequality or poverty measures) into shares due to differences in the structure of labor market returns (price effects); differences in the occupational structure; and differences in the underlying distribution of assets (endowment effects). We apply the method to the differences between the Brazilian income distribution and those of the United States and Mexico, and find that most of Brazil's excess income inequality is due to underlying inequalities in the distribution of two key endowments: access to education and to sources of non-labor income, mainly pensions.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/39863/3/wp478.pd

The countryside in urbanized Flanders: towards a flexible definition for a dynamic policy

The countryside, the rural area, the open space, … many definitions are used for rural Flanders. Everyone makes its own interpretation of the countryside, considering it as a place for living, working or recreating. The countryside is more than just a geographical area: it is an aggregate of physical, social, economic and cultural functions, strongly interrelated with each other. According to international and European definitions of rural areas there would be almost no rural area in Flanders. These international definitions are all developed to be used for analysis and policy within their specific context. They are not really applicable to Flanders because of the historical specificity of its spatial structure. Flanders is characterized by a giant urbanization pressure on its countryside while internationally rural depopulation is a point of interest. To date, for every single rural policy initiative – like the implementation of the European Rural Development Policy – Flanders used a specifically adapted definition, based on existing data or previously made delineations. To overcome this oversupply of definitions and delineations, the Flemish government funded a research project to obtain a clear and flexible definition of the Flemish countryside and a dynamic method to support Flemish rural policy aims. First, an analysis of the currently used definitions of the countryside in Flanders was made. It is clear that, depending on the perspective or the policy context, another definition of the countryside comes into view. The comparative study showed that, according to the used criteria, the area percentage of Flanders that is rural, varies between 9 and 93 per cent. Second, dynamic sets of criteria were developed, facilitating a flexible definition of the countryside, according to the policy aims concerned. This research part was focused on 6 policy themes, like ‘construction, maintenance and management of local (transport) infrastructures’ and ‘provision of (minimum) services (education, culture, health care, …)’. For each theme a dynamic set of criteria or indicators was constructed. These indicators make it possible to show where a policy theme manifests itself and/or where policy interventions are possible or needed. In this way every set of criteria makes up a new definition of rural Flanders. This method is dynamic; new data or insights can easily be incorporated and new criteria sets can be developed if other policy aims come into view. The developed method can contribute to a more region-oriented and theme-specific rural policy and funding mechanism

Amenities and Rural Appalachia Economic Growth

Patterns of economic growth in rural Appalachia are examined with a focus on natural and built amenities. While the literature is clear that rural areas endowed with scenic beauty, lakes, forests, and wildlife, among other natural amenities, and coupled with built amenities such as golf courses, are experiencing robust economic growth. It is not clear if these patterns extend to rural Appalachia. In this applied research study we use data for rural U.S. counties. We estimate an augmented Carlino-Mills growth model with specific attention to growth patterns of Appalachia. We also build on the empirical modeling by adopting a Bayesian Modeling Average (BMA) approach to address the problem of model specification. We find that while there are some commonalities across the whole of the United States, the country is sufficiently heterogeneous that impact of amenities or other policy variables may be significantly different depending on where one is within the country. Our results suggest that while non-metropolitan Appalachia tends to follow national trends, there are sufficient differences that warrant special attention.amenities, quality of life, rural economic growth, Bayesian, Community/Rural/Urban Development,

On the road to prosperity? The economic geography of China's national expressway network

Over the past two decades, China has embarked on an ambitious program of expressway network expansion. By facilitating market integration, this program aims both to promote efficiency at the national level and to contribute to the catch-up of lagging inland regions with prosperous Eastern ones. This paper evaluates the aggregate and spatial economic impacts of China's newly constructed National Expressway Network, focussing, in particular, on its short-run impacts. To achieve this aim, the authors adopt a counterfactual approach based on the estimation and simulation of a structural "new economic geography" model. Overall, they find that aggregate Chinese real income was approximately 6 percent higher than it would have been in 2007 had the expressway network not been built. Although there is considerable heterogeneity in the results, the authors do not find evidence of a significant reduction in disparities across prefectural level regions or of a reduction in urban-rural disparities. If anything, the expressway network appears to have reinforced existing patterns of spatial inequality, although, over time, these will likely be reduced by enhanced migration