Simulating interbank payment and securities settlement mechanisms with the BoF-PSS2 simulator

The simulation technique provides a new means for analysing complex interdependencies in payment and securities settlement processing. The Bank of Finland has developed a payment and settlement system simulator (BoF-PSS2) that can be used for constructing simulation models of payment and securities settlement systems. This paper describes the main elements of payment and settlement systems (system structures, interdependencies, processing steps, liquidity consumption, cost and risk dimensions) and how these can be treated in simulation studies. It gives also examples on how these elements have been incorporated in the simulator, as well as an overview of the structure and the features of the BoF-PSS2 simulator.simulations; simulator; payment systems; clearing/settlement; liquidity

MATHEMATICAL SIMULATION FOR ASSESSMENT OF THE SMALL BUSINESS EFFICIENCY: REGIONAL ASPECTS

Mathematical simulation of economic systems and processes are considered. The description of macroeconomic models for assets formation, consumer behaviour, production activity of an enterprise, and market balance is given. The line balance model of diversified economic system is examined

The profitability and risk effects of allowing bank holding companies to merge with other financial firms: a simulation study

Bank mergers ; Bank holding companies ; Nonbank activities

Models for Stress Testing Czech Banks' Liquidity Risk

We provide a macro stress-testing model for banks' market and funding liquidity risks with a survival period of one and three months. The model takes into account the impact of both bank-specific and market-wide scenarios and considers both the first- and second-round effects of shocks. The testing model has three phases; (i) the formation of a balance-sheet liquidity shortfall, (ii) the reaction by banks, and (iii) the feedback effects of shocks. During each phase we re-count the liquidity buffer and examine whether banks hold a sufficiently large amount of liquid assets to be able to survive the liquidity tension in their balance sheets. An application to Czech banks illustrates which bank business models are sensitive to liquidity tensions. Overall, we confirm that the Czech banking system is resilient to a scenario mimicking the international liquidity crisis of 2008-2009.Banking, financial stability, liquidity risk, stress testing.

An Analysis of Settlement Risk Contagion in Alternative Securities Settlement Architecture

This paper compares the so-called gross and net architectures for securities settlement. It studies the settlement risk arising from exogenous operational delays and compares the importance of settlement failures under the two architectures, as a function of the length of the settlement cycle and of different market conditions. Under both architectures, settlement failures are non-monotonically related to the length of settlement cycle. There is no evidence that continuous time settlement provides always higher stability. Gross systems appear to be more stable than net systems

Japan's Imbalance of Payments

During the past three decades, Japan’s current account experienced five large swings. The yen appreciated considerably in periods when the current account boomed, and it depreciated whenever Japan’s external performance weakened. However, there has always been a certain lag in the adjustment of the exchange rate. This paper tries to explain these empirical regularities. It argues that as a result of the large movements of the current account, the flows of cash between Japan and ist trading partners fluctuated considerably, which in turn influenced the demand for yen relative to other currencies. To the extent that these cash flows were lagging the current account—primarily because of the Japanese lending abroad—the exchange rate’s response to external imbalances occurred with a delay. Based on the estimated maturity structure of Japan’s foreign lending, the paper constructs a measure of payment flows across Japanese borders, which is shown to follow the movements of the exchange rate very closely. The empirical findings raise doubts regarding the feasibility of proposals to depreciate the yen in order to help Japan out of its current economic crisis.yen exchange rate, cash flow, current account, foreign lending maturity structure

Building a Better Fund of Hedge Funds: A Fractal and Alpha - Stable Distribution Approach

Markowitz’s (1952) portfolio theory has permeated financial institutions over the past 50 years. Assuming that returns are normally distributed, Markowitz suggests that portfolio optimization should be performed in a mean-variance framework. With the emergence of hedge funds and their non-normally distributed returns, mean-variance portfolio optimization is no longer adequate. Here, hedge fund returns are modeled with the alpha-stable distribution and a mean-CVaR portfolio optimization is performed. Results indicate that by using the alpha- stable distribution, a more efficient fund of hedge funds portfolio can be created than would be by assuming a normal distribution. To further increase efficiency, the Hurst exponent is considered as a filtering tool and it is found that combining hedge fund strategies within a range of Hurst exponents leads to the creation of more efficient portfolios as characterized by higher risk-adjusted ratios. These findings open the door for the further study of econophysics tools in the analysis of hedge fund returns.hedge funds, fund of funds, portfolio optimization, conditional value at risk, alpha-stable distribution, Hurst exponent, fractals

Monte Carlo Simulation in the Integrated Market and Credit Portfolio Model

Credit granting institutions deal with large portfolios of assets. These assets represent credit granted to obligors as well as investments in securities. A common size for such a portfolio lies from anywhere between 400 to 10,000 instruments. The essential goal of the credit institution is to minimize their losses due to default. By default we mean any event causing an asset to stop producing income. This can be the closure of a stock as well as the inability of an obligor to pay their debt, or even an obligor's decision to pay out all his debt. Minimizing the combined losses of a credit portfolio is not a deterministic problem with one clean solution. The large number of factors influencing each obligor, different market sectors, their interactions and trends, etc. are more commonly dealt with in terms of statistical measures. Such include the expectation of return and the volatility of each asset associated with a given time horizon. In this sense, we consider in the following the expected loss and risk associated with the assets in a credit portfolio over a given time horizon of (typically) 10 to 30 years. We use a Monte Carlo approach to simulate the loss of a portfolio in multiple scenarios, which leads to a distribution function for the expected loss of the portfolio over that time horizon. Second, we compare the results of the simulation to a Gaussian approximation obtained via the Lindeberg-Feller Theorem. Consistent with our expectations, the Gaussian approximation compares well with a Monte Carlo simulation in case of a portfolio of very risky assets. Using a model which produces a distribution of expected losses allows credit institutions to estimate their maximum expected loss with a certain confidence interval. This in turn helps in taking important decisions about whether to grant credit to an obligor, to exercise options or otherwise take advantage of sophisticated securities to minimize losses. Ultimately, this leads to the process of credit risk management