Seismic Risk Analysis of Revenue Losses, Gross Regional Product and transportation systems.

Natural threats like earthquakes, hurricanes or tsunamis have shown seri- ous impacts on communities. In the past, major earthquakes in the United States like Loma Prieta 1989, Northridge 1994, or recent events in Italy like L’Aquila 2009 or Emilia 2012 earthquake emphasized the importance of pre- paredness and awareness to reduce social impacts. Earthquakes impacted businesses and dramatically reduced the gross regional product. Seismic Hazard is traditionally assessed using Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Anal- ysis (PSHA). PSHA well represents the hazard at a specific location, but it’s unsatisfactory for spatially distributed systems. Scenario earthquakes overcome the problem representing the actual distribution of shaking over a spatially distributed system. The performance of distributed productive systems during the recovery process needs to be explored. Scenario earthquakes have been used to assess the risk in bridge networks and the social losses in terms of gross regional product reduction. The proposed method for scenario earthquakes has been applied to a real case study: Treviso, a city in the North East of Italy. The proposed method for scenario earthquakes requires three models: one representation of the sources (Italian Seismogenic Zonation 9), one attenuation relationship (Sa- betta and Pugliese 1996) and a model of the occurrence rate of magnitudes (Gutenberg Richter). A methodology has been proposed to reduce thou- sands of scenarios to a subset consistent with the hazard at each location. Earthquake scenarios, along with Mote Carlo method, have been used to simulate business damage. The response of business facilities to earthquake has been obtained from fragility curves for precast industrial building. Fur- thermore, from business damage the reduction of productivity has been simulated using economic data from the National statistical service and a proposed piecewise “loss of functionality model”. To simulate the economic process in the time domain, an innovative businesses recovery function has been proposed. The proposed method has been applied to generate scenarios earthquakes at the location of bridges and business areas. The proposed selection method- ology has been applied to reduce 8000 scenarios to a subset of 60. Subse- quently, these scenario earthquakes have been used to calculate three system performance parameters: the risk in transportation networks, the risk in terms of business damage and the losses of gross regional product. A novel model for business recovery process has been tested. The proposed model has been used to represent the business recovery process and simulate the effects of government aids allocated for reconstruction. The proposed method has efficiently modeled the seismic hazard using scenario earthquakes. The scenario earthquakes presented have been used to assess possible consequences of earthquakes in seismic prone zones and to increase the preparedness. Scenario earthquakes have been used to sim- ulate the effects to economy of the impacted area; a significant Gross Regional Product reduction has been shown, up to 77% with an earthquake with 0.0003 probability of occurrence. The results showed that limited funds available after the disaster can be distributed in a more efficient way

Discrete Event Simulation Modelling for Dynamic Decision Making in Biopharmaceutical Manufacturing

With the increase in demand for biopharmaceutical products, industries have realised the need to scale up their manufacturing from laboratory-based processes to financially viable production processes. In this context, biopharmaceutical manufacturers are increasingly using simulation-based approaches to gain transparency of their current production system and to assist with designing improved systems. This paper discusses the application of Discrete Event Simulation (DES) and its ability to model the various scenarios for dynamic decision making in biopharmaceutical manufacturing sector. This paper further illustrates a methodology used to develop a simulation model for a biopharmaceutical company, which is considering several capital investments to improve its manufacturing processes. A simulation model for a subset of manufacturing activities was developed that facilitated ‘what-if’ scenario planning for a proposed process alternative. The simulation model of the proposed manufacturing process has shown significant improvement over the current process in terms of throughout time reduction, better resource utilisation, operating cost reduction, reduced bottlenecks etc. This visibility of the existing and proposed production system assisted the company in identifying the potential capital and efficiency gains from the investments therefore demonstrating that DES can be an effective tool for making more informed decisions. Furthermore, the paper also discusses the utilisation of DES models to develop a number of bespoke productivity improvement tools for the company

Facilitating the analysis of a UK national blood service supply chain using distributed simulation

In an attempt to investigate blood unit ordering policies, researchers have created a discrete-event model of the UK National Blood Service (NBS) supply chain in the Southampton area of the UK. The model has been created using Simul8, a commercial-off-the-shelf discrete-event simulation package (CSP). However, as more hospitals were added to the model, it was discovered that the length of time needed to perform a single simulation severely increased. It has been claimed that distributed simulation, a technique that uses the resources of many computers to execute a simulation model, can reduce simulation runtime. Further, an emerging standardized approach exists that supports distributed simulation with CSPs. These CSP Interoperability (CSPI) standards are compatible with the IEEE 1516 standard The High Level Architecture, the defacto interoperability standard for distributed simulation. To investigate if distributed simulation can reduce the execution time of NBS supply chain simulation, this paper presents experiences of creating a distributed version of the CSP Simul8 according to the CSPI/HLA standards. It shows that the distributed version of the simulation does indeed run faster when the model reaches a certain size. Further, we argue that understanding the relationship of model features is key to performance. This is illustrated by experimentation with two different protocols implementations (using Time Advance Request (TAR) and Next Event Request (NER)). Our contribution is therefore the demonstration that distributed simulation is a useful technique in the timely execution of supply chains of this type and that careful analysis of model features can further increase performance

Comparison of Simple Graphical Process Models

Comparing the structure of graphical process models can reveal a number of process variations. Since most contemporary norms for process modelling rely on directed connectivity of objects in the model, connections between objects form sequences which can be translated into performing scenarios. Whereas sequences can be tested for completeness in performing process activities using simulation methods, the similarity or difference in static characteristics of sequences in different model variants are difficult to explore. The goal of the paper is to test the application of a method for comparison of graphical models by analyzing and comparing static characteristics of process models. Consequently, a metamodel for process models is developed followed by a comparison procedure conducted using a graphical model comparison algorithm