Advancing the state of the art in the modelling and simulation of information systems evaluation

It is widely accepted that Information Systems Evaluation (ISE) is a powerful and useful technique that can be used to assess IT/IS investments in an a-priori or a-posteriori sense. Traditional approaches to ISE have tended to centre upon financial and management accounting frameworks, seeking to reconcile tangible and intangible costs, benefits, risks and value factors. Such techniques, however, do not provide the IS researcher or practitioner with further insight or appreciation of any inherent and implicit inter-relationships, in the investment justification process. Thus, this paper outlines and discusses via a taxonomy and resulting classification, alternative and complementary approaches that can be applied to ISE from the fields of Artificial Intelligence (AI), Operational Research (OR) and Management Science (MS). The paper subsequently concludes that such approaches can be potentially used by researchers and practitioners in the field, as a basis for carrying out further research in the field of applied ISE

Decision support model for the selection of asphalt wearing courses in highly trafficked roads

The suitable choice of the materials forming the wearing course of highly trafficked roads is a delicate task because of their direct interaction with vehicles. Furthermore, modern roads must be planned according to sustainable development goals, which is complex because some of these might be in conflict. Under this premise, this paper develops a multi-criteria decision support model based on the analytic hierarchy process and the technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution to facilitate the selection of wearing courses in European countries. Variables were modelled using either fuzzy logic or Monte Carlo methods, depending on their nature. The views of a panel of experts on the problem were collected and processed using the generalized reduced gradient algorithm and a distance-based aggregation approach. The results showed a clear preponderance by stone mastic asphalt over the remaining alternatives in different scenarios evaluated through sensitivity analysis. The research leading to these results was framed in the European FP7 Project DURABROADS (No. 605404).The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007–2013) under Grant Agreement No. 605404

New perspectives on realism, tractability, and complexity in economics

Fuzzy logic and genetic algorithms are used to rework more realistic (and more complex) models of competitive markets. The resulting equilibria are significantly different from the ones predicted from the usual static analysis; the methodology solves the Walrasian problem of how markets can reach equilibrium, starting with firms trading at disparate prices. The modified equilibria found in these complex market models involve some mutual self-restraint on the part of the agents involved, relative to economically rational behaviour. Research (using similar techniques) into the evolution of collaborative behaviours in economics, and of altruism generally, is summarized; and the joint significance of these two bodies of work for public policy is reviewed. The possible extension of the fuzzy/ genetic methodology to other technical aspects of economics (including international trade theory, and development) is also discussed, as are the limitations to the usefulness of any type of theory in political domains. For the latter purpose, a more differentiated concept of rationality, appropriate to ill-structured choices, is developed. The philosophical case for laissez-faire policies is considered briefly; and the prospects for change in the way we ‘do economics’ are analysed

TSE-IDS: A Two-Stage Classifier Ensemble for Intelligent Anomaly-based Intrusion Detection System

Intrusion detection systems (IDS) play a pivotal role in computer security by discovering and repealing malicious activities in computer networks. Anomaly-based IDS, in particular, rely on classification models trained using historical data to discover such malicious activities. In this paper, an improved IDS based on hybrid feature selection and two-level classifier ensembles is proposed. An hybrid feature selection technique comprising three methods, i.e. particle swarm optimization, ant colony algorithm, and genetic algorithm, is utilized to reduce the feature size of the training datasets (NSL-KDD and UNSW-NB15 are considered in this paper). Features are selected based on the classification performance of a reduced error pruning tree (REPT) classifier. Then, a two-level classifier ensembles based on two meta learners, i.e., rotation forest and bagging, is proposed. On the NSL-KDD dataset, the proposed classifier shows 85.8% accuracy, 86.8% sensitivity, and 88.0% detection rate, which remarkably outperform other classification techniques recently proposed in the literature. Results regarding the UNSW-NB15 dataset also improve the ones achieved by several state of the art techniques. Finally, to verify the results, a two-step statistical significance test is conducted. This is not usually considered by IDS research thus far and, therefore, adds value to the experimental results achieved by the proposed classifier

New perspectives on realism, tractability, and complexity in economics

Fuzzy logic and genetic algorithms are used to rework more realistic (and more complex) models of competitive markets. The resulting equilibria are significantly different from the ones predicted from the usual static analysis; the methodology solves the Walrasian problem of how markets can reach equilibrium, starting with firms trading at disparate prices. The modified equilibria found in these complex market models involve some mutual self-restraint on the part of the agents involved, relative to economically rational behaviour. Research (using similar techniques) into the evolution of collaborative behaviours in economics, and of altruism generally, is summarized; and the joint significance of these two bodies of work for public policy is reviewed. The possible extension of the fuzzy/ genetic methodology to other technical aspects of economics (including international trade theory, and development) is also discussed, as are the limitations to the usefulness of any type of theory in political domains. For the latter purpose, a more differentiated concept of rationality, appropriate to ill-structured choices, is developed. The philosophical case for laissez-faire policies is considered briefly; and the prospects for change in the way we ‘do economics’ are analysed.Fuzzy logic; genetic algorithms; complexity; emergence; rationality; ill-structured choice; equilibrium; Walrasian Crier; paradigm change;

A Fuzzy Nonlinear Programming Approach for Optimizing the Performance of a Four-Objective Fluctuation Smoothing Rule in a Wafer Fabrication Factory

In theory, a scheduling problem can be formulated as a mathematical programming problem. In practice, dispatching rules are considered to be a more practical method of scheduling. However, the combination of mathematical programming and fuzzy dispatching rule has rarely been discussed in the literature. In this study, a fuzzy nonlinear programming (FNLP) approach is proposed for optimizing the scheduling performance of a four-factor fluctuation smoothing rule in a wafer fabrication factory. The proposed methodology considers the uncertainty in the remaining cycle time of a job and optimizes a fuzzy four-factor fluctuation-smoothing rule to sequence the jobs in front of each machine. The fuzzy four-factor fluctuation-smoothing rule has five adjustable parameters, the optimization of which results in an FNLP problem. The FNLP problem can be converted into an equivalent nonlinear programming (NLP) problem to be solved. The performance of the proposed methodology has been evaluated with a series of production simulation experiments; these experiments provide sufficient evidence to support the advantages of the proposed method over some existing scheduling methods

Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process Utilization in Government Projects : A Systematic Review of Implementation Processes

Uncertain assessments challenge the aggregation of expert knowledge in the field of decision-making. Valuable, yet sometimes hesitant, insight of expert decision makers needs to be converted into numerically comparative form in the age of information management. . Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) enables the comparison of decision elements through expert judgements, even when the information at hand is uncertain. The present study explores Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) implementation in government projects in a systematic literature review. Theoretical framework for Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Fuzzy Set Theory (FST) and their combination, namely Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) is provided. The systematic literature review categorizes research results under three categories and examines each paper by utilizing review questions. Three main application purposes rise from the literature review; policy planning and assessment, project selection and project and performance evaluation. Overall implementation processes of the three application areas are discussed. The conclusion provides comprehensive evaluation of the approach and considerations for practitioners.Asiantuntijanäkemysten epävarmuus vaikeuttaa tiedon keräämistä päätöksenteossa. Päätöksentekoprosessin kannalta arvokkaat, vaikkakin joskus epävarmat, asiantuntijanäkemykset tulee voida muuttaa numerollisesti vertailtavaan muotoon tietojohtamisen aikakautena. Sumea Analyyttinen Hierarkiaprosessi mahdollistaa päätöksenteossa käytettävien elementtien vertailun asiantuntija-arviointien avulla, jopa silloin kun käytettävissä oleva tieto on epävarmaa. Opinnäytetyössä tutkitaan systemaattisen kirjallisuuskatsauksen keinoin Sumean Analyyttisen Hierarkiaprosessin, eng. Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP), implementointia julkishallinnon hankkeissa. Tutkimus sisältää teoreettisen viitekehyksen Analyyttisen Hierarkiaprosessin, Sumean joukko-opin, eng. Fuzzy Set Theory (FST) ja niiden yhdistelmän, Sumean Analyyttisen Hierarkiaprosessin, eng. Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP), ymmärtämisen tueksi. Systemaattisen kirjallisuuskatsauksen myötä valittu aineisto luokitellaan kolmeen kategoriaan ja jokaista tutkimusta tarkastellaan ennalta määrättyjen kysymysten avulla. Systemaattisen kirjallisuuskatsaukseen myötä valittujen tutkimusten kolme olennaisinta käyttötarkoitusta ovat; käytännön suunnittelu ja arviointi, hankevalinta sekä hankkeiden ja suoritusten arviointi. Aineiston luokittelun jälkeen tutkimus etenee tarkastelemaan erilaisiin käyttötarkoituksiin suunnattujen Sumean Analyyttisen Hierarkiaprosessi -metodin implementointiprosesseja. Johtopäätös -osio tarjoaa pohdintaa ja huomioita siitä, miten päätöksentekijät voivat suhtautua Sumean Analyyttisen Hierarkiaprosessin hyödyntämiseen julkishankkeiden yhteydessä

A Fuzzy Delphi Consensus Methodology Based on a Fuzzy Ranking

Delphi multi-round survey is a procedure that has been widely and successfully used to aggregate experts’ opinions about some previously established statements or questions. Such opinions are usually expressed as real numbers and some commentaries. The evolution of the consensus can be shown by an increase in the agreement percentages, and a decrease in the number of comments made. A consensus is reached when this percentage exceeds a certain previously set threshold. If this threshold has not been reached, the moderator modifies the questionnaire according to the comments he/she has collected, and the following round begins. In this paper, a new fuzzy Delphi method is introduced. On the one hand, the experts’ subjective judgments are collected as fuzzy numbers, enriching the approach. On the other hand, such opinions are collected through a computerized application that is able to interpret the experts’ opinions as fuzzy numbers. Finally, we employ a recently introduced fuzzy ranking methodology, satisfying many properties according to human intuition, in order to determine whether the expert’s fuzzy opinion is favorable enough (comparing with a fixed fuzzy number that indicates Agree or Strongly Agree). A cross-cultural validation was performed to illustrate the applicability of the proposed method. The proposed approach is simple for two reasons: it does not need a defuzzification step of the experts’ answers, and it can consider a wide range of fuzzy numbers not only triangular or trapezoidal fuzzy numbers

A Dynamical Systems Approach for Static Evaluation in Go

In the paper arguments are given why the concept of static evaluation has the potential to be a useful extension to Monte Carlo tree search. A new concept of modeling static evaluation through a dynamical system is introduced and strengths and weaknesses are discussed. The general suitability of this approach is demonstrated.Comment: IEEE Transactions on Computational Intelligence and AI in Games, vol 3 (2011), no