What's unusual in online disease outbreak news?

Background: Accurate and timely detection of public health events of international concern is necessary to help support risk assessment and response and save lives. Novel event-based methods that use the World Wide Web as a signal source offer potential to extend health surveillance into areas where traditional indicator networks are lacking. In this paper we address the issue of systematically evaluating online health news to support automatic alerting using daily disease-country counts text mined from real world data using BioCaster. For 18 data sets produced by BioCaster, we compare 5 aberration detection algorithms (EARS C2, C3, W2, F-statistic and EWMA) for performance against expert moderated ProMED-mail postings. Results: We report sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), mean alerts/100 days and F1, at 95% confidence interval (CI) for 287 ProMED-mail postings on 18 outbreaks across 14 countries over a 366 day period. Results indicate that W2 had the best F1 with a slight benefit for day of week effect over C2. In drill down analysis we indicate issues arising from the granular choice of country-level modeling, sudden drops in reporting due to day of week effects and reporting bias. Automatic alerting has been implemented in BioCaster available from http://born.nii.ac.jp. Conclusions: Online health news alerts have the potential to enhance manual analytical methods by increasing throughput, timeliness and detection rates. Systematic evaluation of health news aberrations is necessary to push forward our understanding of the complex relationship between news report volumes and case numbers and to select the best performing features and algorithms

Towards cross-lingual alerting for bursty epidemic events

Background: Online news reports are increasingly becoming a source for event based early warning systems that detect natural disasters. Harnessing the massive volume of information available from multilingual newswire presents as many challenges as opportunities due to the patterns of reporting complex spatiotemporal events. Results: In this article we study the problem of utilising correlated event reports across languages. We track the evolution of 16 disease outbreaks using 5 temporal aberration detection algorithms on text-mined events classified according to disease and outbreak country. Using ProMED reports as a silver standard, comparative analysis of news data for 13 languages over a 129 day trial period showed improved sensitivity, F1 and timeliness across most models using cross-lingual events. We report a detailed case study analysis for Cholera in Angola 2010 which highlights the challenges faced in correlating news events with the silver standard. Conclusions: The results show that automated health surveillance using multilingual text mining has the potential to turn low value news into high value alerts if informed choices are used to govern the selection of models and data sources. An implementation of the C2 alerting algorithm using multilingual news is available at the BioCaster portal http://born.nii.ac.jp/?page=globalroundup

Measuring, Predicting and Visualizing Short-Term Change in Word Representation and Usage in VKontakte Social Network

Language in social media is extremely dynamic: new words emerge, trend and disappear, while the meaning of existing words can fluctuate over time. Such dynamics are especially notable during a period of crisis. This work addresses several important tasks of measuring, visualizing and predicting short term text representation shift, i.e. the change in a word's contextual semantics, and contrasting such shift with surface level word dynamics, or concept drift, observed in social media streams. Unlike previous approaches on learning word representations from text, we study the relationship between short-term concept drift and representation shift on a large social media corpus - VKontakte posts in Russian collected during the Russia-Ukraine crisis in 2014-2015. Our novel contributions include quantitative and qualitative approaches to (1) measure short-term representation shift and contrast it with surface level concept drift; (2) build predictive models to forecast short-term shifts in meaning from previous meaning as well as from concept drift; and (3) visualize short-term representation shift for example keywords to demonstrate the practical use of our approach to discover and track meaning of newly emerging terms in social media. We show that short-term representation shift can be accurately predicted up to several weeks in advance. Our unique approach to modeling and visualizing word representation shifts in social media can be used to explore and characterize specific aspects of the streaming corpus during crisis events and potentially improve other downstream classification tasks including real-time event detection

End-to-End Tracking and Semantic Segmentation Using Recurrent Neural Networks

In this work we present a novel end-to-end framework for tracking and classifying a robot's surroundings in complex, dynamic and only partially observable real-world environments. The approach deploys a recurrent neural network to filter an input stream of raw laser measurements in order to directly infer object locations, along with their identity in both visible and occluded areas. To achieve this we first train the network using unsupervised Deep Tracking, a recently proposed theoretical framework for end-to-end space occupancy prediction. We show that by learning to track on a large amount of unsupervised data, the network creates a rich internal representation of its environment which we in turn exploit through the principle of inductive transfer of knowledge to perform the task of it's semantic classification. As a result, we show that only a small amount of labelled data suffices to steer the network towards mastering this additional task. Furthermore we propose a novel recurrent neural network architecture specifically tailored to tracking and semantic classification in real-world robotics applications. We demonstrate the tracking and classification performance of the method on real-world data collected at a busy road junction. Our evaluation shows that the proposed end-to-end framework compares favourably to a state-of-the-art, model-free tracking solution and that it outperforms a conventional one-shot training scheme for semantic classification

Thematic Annotation: extracting concepts out of documents

Contrarily to standard approaches to topic annotation, the technique used in this work does not centrally rely on some sort of -- possibly statistical -- keyword extraction. In fact, the proposed annotation algorithm uses a large scale semantic database -- the EDR Electronic Dictionary -- that provides a concept hierarchy based on hyponym and hypernym relations. This concept hierarchy is used to generate a synthetic representation of the document by aggregating the words present in topically homogeneous document segments into a set of concepts best preserving the document's content. This new extraction technique uses an unexplored approach to topic selection. Instead of using semantic similarity measures based on a semantic resource, the later is processed to extract the part of the conceptual hierarchy relevant to the document content. Then this conceptual hierarchy is searched to extract the most relevant set of concepts to represent the topics discussed in the document. Notice that this algorithm is able to extract generic concepts that are not directly present in the document.Comment: Technical report EPFL/LIA. 81 pages, 16 figure

Clustering Memes in Social Media

The increasing pervasiveness of social media creates new opportunities to study human social behavior, while challenging our capability to analyze their massive data streams. One of the emerging tasks is to distinguish between different kinds of activities, for example engineered misinformation campaigns versus spontaneous communication. Such detection problems require a formal definition of meme, or unit of information that can spread from person to person through the social network. Once a meme is identified, supervised learning methods can be applied to classify different types of communication. The appropriate granularity of a meme, however, is hardly captured from existing entities such as tags and keywords. Here we present a framework for the novel task of detecting memes by clustering messages from large streams of social data. We evaluate various similarity measures that leverage content, metadata, network features, and their combinations. We also explore the idea of pre-clustering on the basis of existing entities. A systematic evaluation is carried out using a manually curated dataset as ground truth. Our analysis shows that pre-clustering and a combination of heterogeneous features yield the best trade-off between number of clusters and their quality, demonstrating that a simple combination based on pairwise maximization of similarity is as effective as a non-trivial optimization of parameters. Our approach is fully automatic, unsupervised, and scalable for real-time detection of memes in streaming data.Comment: Proceedings of the 2013 IEEE/ACM International Conference on Advances in Social Networks Analysis and Mining (ASONAM'13), 201