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Predictive Modeling of Pedestrian Motion Patterns with Bayesian Nonparametrics
For safe navigation in dynamic environments, an autonomous vehicle must be able to identify and predict the future behaviors of other mobile agents. A promising data-driven approach is to learn motion patterns from previous observations using Gaussian process (GP) regression, which are then used for online prediction. GP mixture models have been subsequently proposed for finding the number of motion patterns using GP likelihood as a similarity metric. However, this paper shows that using GP likelihood as a similarity metric can lead to non-intuitive clustering configurations - such as grouping trajectories with a small planar shift with respect to each other into different clusters - and thus produce poor prediction results. In this paper we develop a novel modeling framework, Dirichlet process active region (DPAR), that addresses the deficiencies of the previous GP-based approaches. In particular, with a discretized representation of the environment, we can explicitly account for planar shifts via a max pooling step, and reduce the computational complexity of the statistical inference procedure compared with the GP-based approaches. The proposed algorithm was applied on two real pedestrian trajectory datasets collected using a 3D Velodyne Lidar, and showed 15% improvement in prediction accuracy and 4.2 times reduction in computational time compared with a GP-based algorithm.Ford Motor Compan
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Όλ¬Έμ λμ¬ λλ‘ μμ¨μ£Όνμ μν κ±°λ κ³ν μκ³ λ¦¬μ¦μ κ°μλ₯Ό μ μνμμΌλ©°, μ€μ κ΅ν΅ μν©μμμ μ€ν κ²°κ³Όλ μ μλ μκ³ λ¦¬μ¦μ ν¨κ³Όμ±κ³Ό μ΄μ μ κ±°λκ³Όμ μ μ¬μ±μ 보μ¬μ£Όμλ€. μ€μ°¨ μ€ν κ²°κ³Όλ λΉν΅μ κ΅μ°¨λ‘λ₯Ό ν¬ν¨ν λμ¬ μλ리μ€μμμ κ°κ±΄ν μ±λ₯μ 보μ¬μ£Όμλ€.The foci of automotive researches have been expanding from passive safety systems to active safety systems with advances in sensing and processing technologies. Recently, the majority of automotive makers have already commercialized active safety systems, such as adaptive cruise control (ACC), lane keeping assistance (LKA), and autonomous emergency braking (AEB). Such advances have extended the research field beyond active safety systems to automated driving systems to achieve zero fatalities. Especially, automated driving on urban roads has become a key issue because urban roads possess numerous risk factors for traffic accidents, such as sidewalks, blind spots, on-street parking, motorcycles, and pedestrians, which cause higher accident rates and fatalities than motorways. Several projects have been conducted, and many others are still underway to evaluate the effects of automated driving in environmental, demographic, social, and economic aspects. For example, the European project AdaptIVe, develops various automated driving functions and defines specific evaluation methodologies. In addition, CityMobil2 successfully integrates driverless intelligent vehicles in nine other environments throughout Europe. In Japan, the Automated Driving System Research Project began on May 2014, which focuses on the development and verification of automated driving systems and next-generation urban transportation.
From a careful review of a considerable amount of literature, automated driving systems have been proven to increase the safety of traffic users, reduce traffic congestion, and improve driver convenience. Various methodologies have been employed to develop the core technology of automated vehicles on urban roads, such as perception, motion planning, and control. However, the current state-of-the-art automated driving algorithms focus on the development of each technology separately. Consequently, designing automated driving systems from an integrated perspective is not yet sufficiently considered.
Therefore, this dissertation focused on developing a fully autonomous driving algorithm in urban complex scenarios using LiDAR, vision, GPS, and a simple path map. The proposed autonomous driving algorithm covered the urban road scenarios with uncontrolled intersections based on vehicle motion prediction and model predictive control approach. Mainly, four research issues are considered: dynamic/static environment representation, and longitudinal/lateral motion planning.
In the remainder of this thesis, we will provide an overview of the proposed motion planning algorithm for urban autonomous driving and the experimental results in real traffic, which showed the effectiveness and human-like behaviors of the proposed algorithm. The proposed algorithm has been tested and evaluated using both simulation and vehicle tests. The test results show the robust performance of urban scenarios, including uncontrolled intersections.Chapter 1 Introduction 1
1.1. Background and Motivation 1
1.2. Previous Researches 4
1.3. Thesis Objectives 9
1.4. Thesis Outline 10
Chapter 2 Overview of Motion Planning for Automated Driving System 11
Chapter 3 Dynamic Environment Representation with Motion Prediction 15
3.1. Moving Object Classification 17
3.2. Vehicle State based Direct Motion Prediction 20
3.2.1. Data Collection Vehicle 22
3.2.2. Target Roads 23
3.2.3. Dataset Selection 24
3.2.4. Network Architecture 25
3.2.5. Input and Output Features 33
3.2.6. Encoder and Decoder 33
3.2.7. Sequence Length 34
3.3. Road Structure based Interactive Motion Prediction 36
3.3.1. Maneuver Definition 38
3.3.2. Network Architecture 39
3.3.3. Path Following Model based State Predictor 47
3.3.4. Estimation of predictor uncertainty 50
3.3.5. Motion Parameter Estimation 53
3.3.6. Interactive Maneuver Prediction 56
3.4. Intersection Approaching Vehicle Motion Prediction 59
3.4.1. Driver Behavior Model at Intersections 59
3.4.2. Intention Inference based State Prediction 63
Chapter 4 Static Environment Representation 67
4.1. Static Obstacle Map Construction 69
4.2. Free Space Boundary Decision 74
4.3. Drivable Corridor Decision 76
Chapter 5 Longitudinal Motion Planning 81
5.1. In-Lane Target Following 82
5.2. Proactive Motion Planning for Narrow Road Driving 85
5.2.1. Motivation for Collision Preventive Velocity Planning 85
5.2.2. Desired Acceleration Decision 86
5.3. Uncontrolled Intersection 90
5.3.1. Driving Phase and Mode Definition 91
5.3.2. State Machine for Driving Mode Decision 92
5.3.3. Motion Planner for Approach Mode 95
5.3.4. Motion Planner for Risk Management Phase 98
Chapter 6 Lateral Motion Planning 105
6.1. Vehicle Model 107
6.2. Cost Function and Constraints 109
Chapter 7 Performance Evaluation 115
7.1. Motion Prediction 115
7.1.1. Prediction Accuracy Analysis of Vehicle State based Direct Motion Predictor 115
7.1.2. Prediction Accuracy and Effect Analysis of Road Structure based Interactive Motion Predictor 122
7.2. Prediction based Distance Control at Urban Roads 132
7.2.1. Driving Data Analysis of Direct Motion Predictor Application at Urban Roads 133
7.2.2. Case Study of Vehicle Test at Urban Roads 138
7.2.3. Analysis of Vehicle Test Results on Urban Roads 147
7.3. Complex Urban Roads 153
7.3.1. Case Study of Vehicle Test at Complex Urban Roads 154
7.3.2. Closed-loop Simulation based Safety Analysis 162
7.4. Uncontrolled Intersections 164
7.4.1. Simulation based Algorithm Comparison of Motion Planner 164
7.4.2. Monte-Carlo Simulation based Safety Analysis 166
7.4.3. Vehicle Tests Results in Real Traffic Conditions 172
7.4.4. Similarity Analysis between Human and Automated Vehicle 194
7.5. Multi-Lane Turn Intersections 197
7.5.1. Case Study of a Multi-Lane Left Turn Scenario 197
7.5.2. Analysis of Motion Planning Application Results 203
Chapter 8 Conclusion & Future Works 207
8.1. Conclusion 207
8.2. Future Works 209
Bibliography 210
Abstract in Korean 219Docto
Human Motion Trajectory Prediction: A Survey
With growing numbers of intelligent autonomous systems in human environments,
the ability of such systems to perceive, understand and anticipate human
behavior becomes increasingly important. Specifically, predicting future
positions of dynamic agents and planning considering such predictions are key
tasks for self-driving vehicles, service robots and advanced surveillance
systems. This paper provides a survey of human motion trajectory prediction. We
review, analyze and structure a large selection of work from different
communities and propose a taxonomy that categorizes existing methods based on
the motion modeling approach and level of contextual information used. We
provide an overview of the existing datasets and performance metrics. We
discuss limitations of the state of the art and outline directions for further
research.Comment: Submitted to the International Journal of Robotics Research (IJRR),
37 page
Geometry-Based Next Frame Prediction from Monocular Video
We consider the problem of next frame prediction from video input. A
recurrent convolutional neural network is trained to predict depth from
monocular video input, which, along with the current video image and the camera
trajectory, can then be used to compute the next frame. Unlike prior next-frame
prediction approaches, we take advantage of the scene geometry and use the
predicted depth for generating the next frame prediction. Our approach can
produce rich next frame predictions which include depth information attached to
each pixel. Another novel aspect of our approach is that it predicts depth from
a sequence of images (e.g. in a video), rather than from a single still image.
We evaluate the proposed approach on the KITTI dataset, a standard dataset for
benchmarking tasks relevant to autonomous driving. The proposed method produces
results which are visually and numerically superior to existing methods that
directly predict the next frame. We show that the accuracy of depth prediction
improves as more prior frames are considered.Comment: To appear in 2017 IEEE Intelligent Vehicles Symposiu
A Learning-Based Framework for Two-Dimensional Vehicle Maneuver Prediction over V2V Networks
Situational awareness in vehicular networks could be substantially improved
utilizing reliable trajectory prediction methods. More precise situational
awareness, in turn, results in notably better performance of critical safety
applications, such as Forward Collision Warning (FCW), as well as comfort
applications like Cooperative Adaptive Cruise Control (CACC). Therefore,
vehicle trajectory prediction problem needs to be deeply investigated in order
to come up with an end to end framework with enough precision required by the
safety applications' controllers. This problem has been tackled in the
literature using different methods. However, machine learning, which is a
promising and emerging field with remarkable potential for time series
prediction, has not been explored enough for this purpose. In this paper, a
two-layer neural network-based system is developed which predicts the future
values of vehicle parameters, such as velocity, acceleration, and yaw rate, in
the first layer and then predicts the two-dimensional, i.e. longitudinal and
lateral, trajectory points based on the first layer's outputs. The performance
of the proposed framework has been evaluated in realistic cut-in scenarios from
Safety Pilot Model Deployment (SPMD) dataset and the results show a noticeable
improvement in the prediction accuracy in comparison with the kinematics model
which is the dominant employed model by the automotive industry. Both ideal and
nonideal communication circumstances have been investigated for our system
evaluation. For non-ideal case, an estimation step is included in the framework
before the parameter prediction block to handle the drawbacks of packet drops
or sensor failures and reconstruct the time series of vehicle parameters at a
desirable frequency
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