Flexible shrinkage in high-dimensional Bayesian spatial autoregressive models

This article introduces two absolutely continuous global-local shrinkage priors to enable stochastic variable selection in the context of high-dimensional matrix exponential spatial specifications. Existing approaches as a means to dealing with overparameterization problems in spatial autoregressive specifications typically rely on computationally demanding Bayesian model-averaging techniques. The proposed shrinkage priors can be implemented using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods in a flexible and efficient way. A simulation study is conducted to evaluate the performance of each of the shrinkage priors. Results suggest that they perform particularly well in high-dimensional environments, especially when the number of parameters to estimate exceeds the number of observations. For an empirical illustration we use pan-European regional economic growth data.Comment: Keywords: Matrix exponential spatial specification, model selection, shrinkage priors, hierarchical modeling; JEL: C11, C21, C5

Estimation of the spatial weighting matrix for regular lattice data—An adaptive lasso approach with cross-sectional resampling

Spatial autoregressive models typically rely on the assumption that the spatial dependence structure is known in advance and is represented by a deterministic spatial weights matrix, although it is unknown in most empirical applications. Thus, we investigate the estimation of sparse spatial dependence structures for regular lattice data. In particular, an adaptive least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (lasso) is used to select and estimate the individual nonzero connections of the spatial weights matrix. To recover the spatial dependence structure, we propose cross-sectional resampling, assuming that the random process is exchangeable. The estimation procedure is based on a two-step approach to circumvent simultaneity issues that typically arise from endogenous spatial autoregressive dependencies. The two-step adaptive lasso approach with cross-sectional resampling is verified using Monte Carlo simulations. Eventually, we apply the procedure to model nitrogen dioxide (Formula presented.) concentrations and show that estimating the spatial dependence structure contrary to using prespecified weights matrices improves the prediction accuracy considerably. © 2021 The Authors. Environmetrics published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

Large Vector Auto Regressions

One popular approach for nonstructural economic and financial forecasting is to include a large number of economic and financial variables, which has been shown to lead to significant improvements for forecasting, for example, by the dynamic factor models. A challenging issue is to determine which variables and (their) lags are relevant, especially when there is a mixture of serial correlation (temporal dynamics), high dimensional (spatial) dependence structure and moderate sample size (relative to dimensionality and lags). To this end, an \textit{integrated} solution that addresses these three challenges simultaneously is appealing. We study the large vector auto regressions here with three types of estimates. We treat each variable's own lags different from other variables' lags, distinguish various lags over time, and is able to select the variables and lags simultaneously. We first show the consequences of using Lasso type estimate directly for time series without considering the temporal dependence. In contrast, our proposed method can still produce an estimate as efficient as an \textit{oracle} under such scenarios. The tuning parameters are chosen via a data driven "rolling scheme" method to optimize the forecasting performance. A macroeconomic and financial forecasting problem is considered to illustrate its superiority over existing estimators

Large Vector Auto Regressions

One popular approach for nonstructural economic and financial forecasting is to include a large number of economic and financial variables, which has been shown to lead to significant improvements for forecasting, for example, by the dynamic factor models. A challenging issue is to determine which variables and (their) lags are relevant, especially when there is a mixture of serial correlation (temporal dynamics), high dimensional (spatial) dependence structure and moderate sample size (relative to dimensionality and lags). To this end, an integrated solution that addresses these three challenges simultaneously is appealing. We study the large vector auto regressions here with three types of estimates. We treat each variable's own lags different from other variables' lags, distinguish various lags over time, and is able to select the variables and lags simultaneously. We first show the consequences of using Lasso type estimate directly for time series without considering the temporal dependence. In contrast, our proposed method can still produce an estimate as efficient as an oracle under such scenarios. The tuning parameters are chosen via a data driven "rolling scheme" method to optimize the forecasting performance. A macroeconomic and financial forecasting problem is considered to illustrate its superiority over existing estimators.Time Series, Vector Auto Regression, Regularization, Lasso, Group Lasso, Oracle estimator

Estimation of the spatial weighting matrix for regular lattice data -- An adaptive lasso approach with cross-sectional resampling

Spatial econometric research typically relies on the assumption that the spatial dependence structure is known in advance and is represented by a deterministic spatial weights matrix. Contrary to classical approaches, we investigate the estimation of sparse spatial dependence structures for regular lattice data. In particular, an adaptive least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (lasso) is used to select and estimate the individual connections of the spatial weights matrix. To recover the spatial dependence structure, we propose cross-sectional resampling, assuming that the random process is exchangeable. The estimation procedure is based on a two-step approach to circumvent simultaneity issues that typically arise from endogenous spatial autoregressive dependencies. The two-step adaptive lasso approach with cross-sectional resampling is verified using Monte Carlo simulations. Eventually, we apply the procedure to model nitrogen dioxide ($\mathrm{NO_2}$) concentrations and show that estimating the spatial dependence structure contrary to using prespecified weights matrices improves the prediction accuracy considerably

Gene ranking and biomarker discovery under correlation

Biomarker discovery and gene ranking is a standard task in genomic high throughput analysis. Typically, the ordering of markers is based on a stabilized variant of the t-score, such as the moderated t or the SAM statistic. However, these procedures ignore gene-gene correlations, which may have a profound impact on the gene orderings and on the power of the subsequent tests. We propose a simple procedure that adjusts gene-wise t-statistics to take account of correlations among genes. The resulting correlation-adjusted t-scores ("cat" scores) are derived from a predictive perspective, i.e. as a score for variable selection to discriminate group membership in two-class linear discriminant analysis. In the absence of correlation the cat score reduces to the standard t-score. Moreover, using the cat score it is straightforward to evaluate groups of features (i.e. gene sets). For computation of the cat score from small sample data we propose a shrinkage procedure. In a comparative study comprising six different synthetic and empirical correlation structures we show that the cat score improves estimation of gene orderings and leads to higher power for fixed true discovery rate, and vice versa. Finally, we also illustrate the cat score by analyzing metabolomic data. The shrinkage cat score is implemented in the R package "st" available from URL http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/st/Comment: 18 pages, 5 figures, 1 tabl