Direct and indirect effects of mood on risk decision making in safety-critical workers

The study aimed to examine the direct influence of specific moods (fatigue, anxiety, happiness) on risk in safety-critical decision making. It further aimed to explore indirect effects, specifically, the potential mediating effects of information processing assessed using a goodness-of-simulation task. Trait fatigue and anxiety were associated with an increase in risk taking on the Safety-Critical Personal Risk Inventory (S-CPRI), however the effect of fatigue was partialled out by anxiety. Trait happiness, in contrast was related to less risky decision making. Findings concerning the ability to simulate suggest that better simulators made less risky decisions. Anxious workers were generally less able to simulate. It is suggested that in this safety-critical environment happiness had a direct effect on risk decision making while the effect of trait anxiety was mediated by goodness-of-simulation

Tools for Assessing Climate Impacts on Fish and Wildlife

Climate change is already affecting many fish and wildlife populations. Managing these populations requires an understanding of the nature, magnitude, and distribution of current and future climate impacts. Scientists and managers have at their disposal a wide array of models for projecting climate impacts that can be used to build such an understanding. Here, we provide a broad overview of the types of models available for forecasting the effects of climate change on key processes that affect fish and wildlife habitat (hydrology, fire, and vegetation), as well as on individual species distributions and populations. We present a framework for how climate-impacts modeling can be used to address management concerns, providing examples of model-based assessments of climate impacts on salmon populations in the Pacific Northwest, fire regimes in the boreal region of Canada, prairies and savannas in the Willamette Valley-Puget Sound Trough-Georgia Basin ecoregion, and marten Martes americana populations in the northeastern United States and southeastern Canada. We also highlight some key limitations of these models and discuss how such limitations should be managed. We conclude with a general discussion of how these models can be integrated into fish and wildlife management

Games for a new climate: experiencing the complexity of future risks

This repository item contains a single issue of the Pardee Center Task Force Reports, a publication series that began publishing in 2009 by the Boston University Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future.This report is a product of the Pardee Center Task Force on Games for a New Climate, which met at Pardee House at Boston University in March 2012. The 12-member Task Force was convened on behalf of the Pardee Center by Visiting Research Fellow Pablo Suarez in collaboration with the Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre to “explore the potential of participatory, game-based processes for accelerating learning, fostering dialogue, and promoting action through real-world decisions affecting the longer-range future, with an emphasis on humanitarian and development work, particularly involving climate risk management.” Compiled and edited by Janot Mendler de Suarez, Pablo Suarez and Carina Bachofen, the report includes contributions from all of the Task Force members and provides a detailed exploration of the current and potential ways in which games can be used to help a variety of stakeholders – including subsistence farmers, humanitarian workers, scientists, policymakers, and donors – to both understand and experience the difficulty and risks involved related to decision-making in a complex and uncertain future. The dozen Task Force experts who contributed to the report represent academic institutions, humanitarian organization, other non-governmental organizations, and game design firms with backgrounds ranging from climate modeling and anthropology to community-level disaster management and national and global policymaking as well as game design.Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centr

Overview on agent-based social modelling and the use of formal languages

Transdisciplinary Models and Applications investigates a variety of programming languages used in validating and verifying models in order to assist in their eventual implementation. This book will explore different methods of evaluating and formalizing simulation models, enabling computer and industrial engineers, mathematicians, and students working with computer simulations to thoroughly understand the progression from simulation to product, improving the overall effectiveness of modeling systems.Postprint (author's final draft

Psychologists’ Diagnostic Processes during a Diagnostic Interview

In mental health care, psychologists assess clients’ complaints, analyze underlying problems, and identify causes for these problems, to make treatment decisions. We present a study on psychologists’ diagnostic processes, in which a mixed-method approach was employed. We aimed to identify a common structure in the diagnostic processes of different psychologists. We engaged an actor to simulate a client. Participants were asked to perform a diagnostic interview with this “client”. This interview was videotaped. Afterwards participants first wrote a report and then were asked to review their considerations during the interview. We found that psychologists were comprehensive in their diagnostic interviews. They addressed the client’s complaints, possible classifications, explanations, and treatments. They agreed about the classifications, more than about causal factors and treatment options. The content of the considerations differed between the interviews and the reports written afterwards. We conclude that psychologists continuously shifted between diagnostic activities and revised their decisions in line with the dynamics of the interview situatio

Are developmental disorders like cases of adult brain damage? Implications from connectionist modelling

It is often assumed that similar domain-specific behavioural impairments found in cases of adult brain damage and developmental disorders correspond to similar underlying causes, and can serve as convergent evidence for the modular structure of the normal adult cognitive system. We argue that this correspondence is contingent on an unsupported assumption that atypical development can produce selective deficits while the rest of the system develops normally (Residual Normality), and that this assumption tends to bias data collection in the field. Based on a review of connectionist models of acquired and developmental disorders in the domains of reading and past tense, as well as on new simulations, we explore the computational viability of Residual Normality and the potential role of development in producing behavioural deficits. Simulations demonstrate that damage to a developmental model can produce very different effects depending on whether it occurs prior to or following the training process. Because developmental disorders typically involve damage prior to learning, we conclude that the developmental process is a key component of the explanation of endstate impairments in such disorders. Further simulations demonstrate that in simple connectionist learning systems, the assumption of Residual Normality is undermined by processes of compensation or alteration elsewhere in the system. We outline the precise computational conditions required for Residual Normality to hold in development, and suggest that in many cases it is an unlikely hypothesis. We conclude that in developmental disorders, inferences from behavioural deficits to underlying structure crucially depend on developmental conditions, and that the process of ontogenetic development cannot be ignored in constructing models of developmental disorders

Defending simulation theory against the argument from error

We defend the Simulation Theory of Mind against a challenge from the Theory Theory of Mind. The challenge is that while Simulation Theory can account for Theory of Mind errors, it cannot account for their systematic nature. There are Theory of Mind errors seen in social psychological research with adults where persons are either overly generous or overly cynical in how rational they expect others to be. There are also Theory of Mind errors observable in developmental data drawn from Maxi-type false belief tests. We provide novel responses to several examples showing that Simulation Theory can answer these challenges

An assessment of the ability of Bartlett–Lewis type of rainfall models to reproduce drought statistics

Of all natural disasters, the economic and environmental consequences of droughts are among the highest because of their longevity and widespread spatial extent. Because of their extreme behaviour, studying droughts generally requires long time series of historical climate data. Rainfall is a very important variable for calculating drought statistics, for quantifying historical droughts or for assessing the impact on other hydrological (e. g. water stage in rivers) or agricultural (e. g. irrigation requirements) variables. Unfortunately, time series of historical observations are often too short for such assessments. To circumvent this, one may rely on the synthetic rainfall time series from stochastic point process rainfall models, such as Bartlett-Lewis models. The present study investigates whether drought statistics are preserved when simulating rainfall with Bartlett-Lewis models. Therefore, a 105 yr 10 min rainfall time series obtained at Uccle, Belgium is used as a test case. First, drought events were identified on the basis of the Effective Drought Index (EDI), and each event was characterized by two variables, i.e. drought duration (D) and drought severity (S). As both parameters are interdependent, a multivariate distribution function, which makes use of a copula, was fitted. Based on the copula, four types of drought return periods are calculated for observed as well as simulated droughts and are used to evaluate the ability of the rainfall models to simulate drought events with the appropriate characteristics. Overall, all Bartlett-Lewis model types studied fail to preserve extreme drought statistics, which is attributed to the model structure and to the model stationarity caused by maintaining the same parameter set during the whole simulation period

Models of atypical development must also be models of normal development

Functional magnetic resonance imaging studies of developmental disorders and normal cognition that include children are becoming increasingly common and represent part of a newly expanding field of developmental cognitive neuroscience. These studies have illustrated the importance of the process of development in understanding brain mechanisms underlying cognition and including children ill the study of the etiology of developmental disorders

Open problems in artificial life

This article lists fourteen open problems in artificial life, each of which is a grand challenge requiring a major advance on a fundamental issue for its solution. Each problem is briefly explained, and, where deemed helpful, some promising paths to its solution are indicated