Conditional Reliability in Uncertain Graphs

Network reliability is a well-studied problem that requires to measure the probability that a target node is reachable from a source node in a probabilistic (or uncertain) graph, i.e., a graph where every edge is assigned a probability of existence. Many approaches and problem variants have been considered in the literature, all assuming that edge-existence probabilities are fixed. Nevertheless, in real-world graphs, edge probabilities typically depend on external conditions. In metabolic networks a protein can be converted into another protein with some probability depending on the presence of certain enzymes. In social influence networks the probability that a tweet of some user will be re-tweeted by her followers depends on whether the tweet contains specific hashtags. In transportation networks the probability that a network segment will work properly or not might depend on external conditions such as weather or time of the day. In this paper we overcome this limitation and focus on conditional reliability, that is assessing reliability when edge-existence probabilities depend on a set of conditions. In particular, we study the problem of determining the k conditions that maximize the reliability between two nodes. We deeply characterize our problem and show that, even employing polynomial-time reliability-estimation methods, it is NP-hard, does not admit any PTAS, and the underlying objective function is non-submodular. We then devise a practical method that targets both accuracy and efficiency. We also study natural generalizations of the problem with multiple source and target nodes. An extensive empirical evaluation on several large, real-life graphs demonstrates effectiveness and scalability of the proposed methods.Comment: 14 pages, 13 figure

Robust optimization with incremental recourse

In this paper, we consider an adaptive approach to address optimization problems with uncertain cost parameters. Here, the decision maker selects an initial decision, observes the realization of the uncertain cost parameters, and then is permitted to modify the initial decision. We treat the uncertainty using the framework of robust optimization in which uncertain parameters lie within a given set. The decision maker optimizes so as to develop the best cost guarantee in terms of the worst-case analysis. The recourse decision is ``incremental"; that is, the decision maker is permitted to change the initial solution by a small fixed amount. We refer to the resulting problem as the robust incremental problem. We study robust incremental variants of several optimization problems. We show that the robust incremental counterpart of a linear program is itself a linear program if the uncertainty set is polyhedral. Hence, it is solvable in polynomial time. We establish the NP-hardness for robust incremental linear programming for the case of a discrete uncertainty set. We show that the robust incremental shortest path problem is NP-complete when costs are chosen from a polyhedral uncertainty set, even in the case that only one new arc may be added to the initial path. We also address the complexity of several special cases of the robust incremental shortest path problem and the robust incremental minimum spanning tree problem

Network recovery from massive failures under uncertain knowledge of damages

This paper addresses progressive network recovery under uncertain knowledge of damages. We formulate the problem as a mixed integer linear programming (MILP), and show that it is NP-Hard. We propose an iterative stochastic recovery algorithm (ISR) to recover the network in a progressive manner to satisfy the critical services. At each optimization step, we make a decision to repair a part of the network and gather more information iteratively, until critical services are completely restored. Three different algorithms are used to find a feasible set and determine which node to repair, namely, 1) an iterative shortest path algorithm (ISR-SRT), 2) an approximate branch and bound (ISR-BB) and 3) an iterative multi-commodity LP relaxation (ISR-MULT). Further, we have modified the state-of-the-Art iterative split and prune (ISP) algorithm to incorporate the uncertain failures. Our results show that ISR-BB and ISR- MULT outperform the state-of-the-Art 'progressive ISP' algorithm while we can configure our choice of trade-off between the execution time, number of repairs (cost) and the demand loss. We show that our recovery algorithm, on average, can reduce the total number of repairs by a factor of about 3 with respect to ISP, while satisfying all critical deman

Ambulance Emergency Response Optimization in Developing Countries

The lack of emergency medical transportation is viewed as the main barrier to the access of emergency medical care in low and middle-income countries (LMICs). In this paper, we present a robust optimization approach to optimize both the location and routing of emergency response vehicles, accounting for uncertainty in travel times and spatial demand characteristic of LMICs. We traveled to Dhaka, Bangladesh, the sixth largest and third most densely populated city in the world, to conduct field research resulting in the collection of two unique datasets that inform our approach. This data is leveraged to develop machine learning methodologies to estimate demand for emergency medical services in a LMIC setting and to predict the travel time between any two locations in the road network for different times of day and days of the week. We combine our robust optimization and machine learning frameworks with real data to provide an in-depth investigation into three policy-related questions. First, we demonstrate that outpost locations optimized for weekday rush hour lead to good performance for all times of day and days of the week. Second, we find that significant improvements in emergency response times can be achieved by re-locating a small number of outposts and that the performance of the current system could be replicated using only 30% of the resources. Lastly, we show that a fleet of small motorcycle-based ambulances has the potential to significantly outperform traditional ambulance vans. In particular, they are able to capture three times more demand while reducing the median response time by 42% due to increased routing flexibility offered by nimble vehicles on a larger road network. Our results provide practical insights for emergency response optimization that can be leveraged by hospital-based and private ambulance providers in Dhaka and other urban centers in LMICs