Computational intelligence approaches for energy load forecasting in smart energy management grids: state of the art, future challenges, and research directions and Research Directions

Energy management systems are designed to monitor, optimize, and control the smart grid energy market. Demand-side management, considered as an essential part of the energy management system, can enable utility market operators to make better management decisions for energy trading between consumers and the operator. In this system, a priori knowledge about the energy load pattern can help reshape the load and cut the energy demand curve, thus allowing a better management and distribution of the energy in smart grid energy systems. Designing a computationally intelligent load forecasting (ILF) system is often a primary goal of energy demand management. This study explores the state of the art of computationally intelligent (i.e., machine learning) methods that are applied in load forecasting in terms of their classification and evaluation for sustainable operation of the overall energy management system. More than 50 research papers related to the subject identified in existing literature are classified into two categories: namely the single and the hybrid computational intelligence (CI)-based load forecasting technique. The advantages and disadvantages of each individual techniques also discussed to encapsulate them into the perspective into the energy management research. The identified methods have been further investigated by a qualitative analysis based on the accuracy of the prediction, which confirms the dominance of hybrid forecasting methods, which are often applied as metaheurstic algorithms considering the different optimization techniques over single model approaches. Based on extensive surveys, the review paper predicts a continuous future expansion of such literature on different CI approaches and their optimizations with both heuristic and metaheuristic methods used for energy load forecasting and their potential utilization in real-time smart energy management grids to address future challenges in energy demand managemen

A Review of Short Term Load Forecasting using Artificial Neural Network Models

AbstractThe electrical short term load forecasting has been emerged as one of the most essential field of research for efficient and reliable operation of power system in last few decades. It plays very significant role in the field of scheduling, contingency analysis, load flow analysis, planning and maintenance of power system. This paper addresses a review on recently published research work on different variants of artificial neural network in the field of short term load forecasting. In particular, the hybrid networks which is a combination of neural network with stochastic learning techniques such as genetic algorithm(GA), particle swarm optimization (PSO) etc. which has been successfully applied for short term load forecasting (STLF) is discussed thoroughly

Artificial Neural Network and its Applications in the Energy Sector – An Overview

In order to realize the goal of optimal use of energy sources and cleaner environment at a minimal cost, researchers; field professionals; and industrialists have identified the expediency of harnessing the computational benefits provided by artificial intelligence (AI) techniques. This article provides an overview of AI, chronological blueprints of the emergence of artificial neural networks (ANNs) and some of its applications in the energy sector. This short survey reveals that despite the initial hiccups at the developmental stages of ANNs, ANN has tremendously evolved, is still evolving and have been found to be effective in handling highly complex problems even in the areas of modeling, control, and optimization, to mention a few

Short Term Load Forecasting Using Computational Intelligence Methods

Load forecasting is very essential to the operation of electricity companies. It enhances the energy-efficient and reliable operation of a power system. This dissertation focuses on study of short term load forecasting using different types of computational intelligence methods. It uses evolutionary algorithms (i.e. Genetic Algorithm, Particle Swarm Optimization, Artificial Immune System), neural networks (i.e. MLPNN, RBFNN, FLANN, ADALIN, MFLNN, WNN, Recurrent NN, Wilcoxon NN), and fuzzy systems (i.e. ANFIS). The developed methods give load forecasts of one hour upto 24 hours in advance. The algorithms and networks were have been demonstrated using simulation studies. The power sector in Orissa has undergone various structural and organizational changes in recent past. The main focus of all the changes initiated is to make the power system more efficient, economically viable and better service oriented. All these can happen if, among other vital factors, there is a good and accurate system in place for forecasting the load that would be in demand by electricity customers. Such forecasts will be highly useful in proper system planning & operations. The techniques proposed in this thesis have been simulated using data obtained from State Load Dispatch Centre, Orissa for the duration September – 2006 to August – 2007

A Dynamic Neural Network Architecture with immunology Inspired Optimization for Weather Data Forecasting

Recurrent neural networks are dynamical systems that provide for memory capabilities to recall past behaviour, which is necessary in the prediction of time series. In this paper, a novel neural network architecture inspired by the immune algorithm is presented and used in the forecasting of naturally occurring signals, including weather big data signals. Big Data Analysis is a major research frontier, which attracts extensive attention from academia, industry and government, particularly in the context of handling issues related to complex dynamics due to changing weather conditions. Recently, extensive deployment of IoT, sensors, and ambient intelligence systems led to an exponential growth of data in the climate domain. In this study, we concentrate on the analysis of big weather data by using the Dynamic Self Organized Neural Network Inspired by the Immune Algorithm. The learning strategy of the network focuses on the local properties of the signal using a self-organised hidden layer inspired by the immune algorithm, while the recurrent links of the network aim at recalling previously observed signal patterns. The proposed network exhibits improved performance when compared to the feedforward multilayer neural network and state-of-the-art recurrent networks, e.g., the Elman and the Jordan networks. Three non-linear and non-stationary weather signals are used in our experiments. Firstly, the signals are transformed into stationary, followed by 5-steps ahead prediction. Improvements in the prediction results are observed with respect to the mean value of the error (RMS) and the signal to noise ratio (SNR), however to the expense of additional computational complexity, due to presence of recurrent links

Electricity market clearing price forecasting under a deregulated electricity market

Under deregulated electric market, electricity price is no longer set by the monopoly utility company rather it responds to the market and operating conditions. Offering the right amount of electricity at the right time with the right bidding price has become the key for utility companies pursuing maximum profits under deregulated electricity market. Therefore, electricity market clearing price (MCP) forecasting became essential for decision making, scheduling and bidding strategy planning purposes. However, forecasting electricity MCP is a very difficult problem due to uncertainties associated with input variables. Neural network based approach promises to be an effective forecasting tool in an environment with high degree of non-linearity and uncertainty. Although there are several techniques available for short-term MCP forecasting, very little has been done to do mid-term MCP forecasting. Two new artificial neural networks have been proposed and reported in this thesis that can be utilized to forecast mid-term daily peak and mid-term hourly electricity MCP. The proposed neural networks can simulate the electricity MCP with electricity hourly demand, electricity daily peak demand, natural gas price and precipitation as input variables. Two situations have been considered; electricity MCP forecasting under real deregulated electric market and electricity MCP forecasting under deregulated electric market with perfect competition. The PJM interconnect system has been utilized for numerical results. Techniques have been developed to overcome difficulties in training the neural network and improve the training results