8,350 research outputs found
Local Short Term Electricity Load Forecasting: Automatic Approaches
Short-Term Load Forecasting (STLF) is a fundamental component in the
efficient management of power systems, which has been studied intensively over
the past 50 years. The emerging development of smart grid technologies is
posing new challenges as well as opportunities to STLF. Load data, collected at
higher geographical granularity and frequency through thousands of smart
meters, allows us to build a more accurate local load forecasting model, which
is essential for local optimization of power load through demand side
management. With this paper, we show how several existing approaches for STLF
are not applicable on local load forecasting, either because of long training
time, unstable optimization process, or sensitivity to hyper-parameters.
Accordingly, we select five models suitable for local STFL, which can be
trained on different time-series with limited intervention from the user. The
experiment, which consists of 40 time-series collected at different locations
and aggregation levels, revealed that yearly pattern and temperature
information are only useful for high aggregation level STLF. On local STLF
task, the modified version of double seasonal Holt-Winter proposed in this
paper performs relatively well with only 3 months of training data, compared to
more complex methods
A SARIMAX coupled modelling applied to individual load curves intraday forecasting
A dynamic coupled modelling is investigated to take temperature into account
in the individual energy consumption forecasting. The objective is both to
avoid the inherent complexity of exhaustive SARIMAX models and to take
advantage of the usual linear relation between energy consumption and
temperature for thermosensitive customers. We first recall some issues related
to individual load curves forecasting. Then, we propose and study the
properties of a dynamic coupled modelling taking temperature into account as an
exogenous contribution and its application to the intraday prediction of energy
consumption. Finally, these theoretical results are illustrated on a real
individual load curve. The authors discuss the relevance of such an approach
and anticipate that it could form a substantial alternative to the commonly
used methods for energy consumption forecasting of individual customers.Comment: 17 pages, 18 figures, 2 table
A looming revolution: Implications of self-generation for the risk exposure of retailers. ESRI WP597, September 2018
Managing the risk associated with uncertain load has always been a challenge for retailers in electricity markets. Yet
the load variability has been largely predictable in the past, especially when aggregating a large number of consumers. In
contrast, the increasing penetration of unpredictable, small-scale electricity generation by consumers, i.e. self-generation,
constitutes a new and yet greater volume risk. Using value-at-risk metrics and Monte Carlo simulations based on German
historical loads and prices, the contribution of decentralized solar PV self-generation to retailersâ load and revenue risks is
assessed. This analysis has implications for the consumersâ welfare and the overall efficiency of electricity markets
The price elasticity of electricity demand in South Australia
In this paper, the price elasticity of electricity demand, representing the sensitivity of customer demand to the price of electricity, has been estimated for South Australia. We first undertake a review of the scholarly literature regarding electricity price elasticity for different regions and systems. Then we perform an empirical evaluation of the historic South Australian price elasticity, focussing on the relationship between price and demand quantiles at each half-hour of the day. This work attempts to determine whether there is any variation in price sensitivity with the time of day or quantile, and to estimate the form of any relationship that might exist in South Australia.Electricity demand; Price elasticity
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