Spatial inference of traffic transition using micro-macro traffic variables

This paper proposes an online traffic inference algorithm for road segments in which local traffic information cannot be directly observed. Using macro-micro traffic variables as inputs, the algorithm consists of three main operations. First, it uses interarrival time (time headway) statistics from upstream and downstream locations to spatially infer traffic transitions at an unsupervised piece of segment. Second, it estimates lane-level flow and occupancy at the same unsupervised target site. Third, it estimates individual lane-level shockwave propagation times on the segment. Using real-world closed-circuit television data, it is shown that the proposed algorithm outperforms previously proposed methods in the literature

Characterizing Queue Dynamics at Signalized Intersections From Probe Vehicle Data

Probe vehicles instrumented with location-tracking technologies have become increasingly popular for collecting traffic flow data. While probe vehicle data have been used for estimating speeds and travel times, there has been limited research on predicting queuing dynamics from such data. In this research, a methodology is developed for identifying the travel lanes of the GPS-instrumented vehicles when they are standing in a queue at signalized intersections with multilane approaches. In particular, the proposed methodology exploits the unequal queue lengths across the lanes to infer the specific lanes the probe vehicles occupy. Various supervised and unsupervised clustering methods were developed and tested on data generated from a microsimulation model. The generated data included probe vehicle positions and shockwave speeds predicated on their trajectories. Among the tested methods, a Bayesian approach that employs probability density functions estimated by bivariate statistical mixture models was found to be effective in identifying the lanes. The results from lane identification were then used to predict queue lengths for each travel lane. Subsequently, the trajectories for non-probe vehicles within the queue were predicted. As a potential application, fuel consumption for all vehicles in the queue is estimated and evaluated for accuracy. The accuracies of the models for lane identification. queue length prediction, and fuel consumption estimation were evaluated at varying levels of demand and probe-vehicle market penetrations. In general, as the market penetration increases, the accuracy improves. For example. when the market penetration rate is about 40%, the queue length estimation accuracy reaches 90%. The dissertation includes various numerical experiments and the performance of the models under numerous scenarios

What Is an Effective Way to Measure Arterial Demand When It Exceeds Capacity?

This project focused on developing and evaluating methods for estimating demand volume for oversaturated corridors. Measuring demand directly with vehicle sensors is not possible when demand is larger than capacity for an extended period, as the queue grows beyond the sensor, and the flow measurements at a given point cannot exceed the capacity of the section. The main objective of the study was to identify and develop methods that could be implemented in practice based on readily available data. To this end, two methods were proposed: an innovative method based on shockwave theory; and the volume delay function adapted from the Highway Capacity Manual. Both methods primarily rely on probe vehicle speeds (e.g., from INRIX) as the input data and the capacity of the segment or bottleneck being analyzed. The proposed methods were tested with simulation data and validated based on volume data from the field. The results show both methods are effective for estimating the demand volume and produce less than 4% error when tested with field data

Real-time estimation of queue length at signalized intersections

This study develops the method of estimating queue length at a signalized intersection. The method simplifies the past queue length estimation method that was developed using shock wave theory. This simplified method avoids complexity with calculations of shock wave speeds and accounts for the variations in vehicle effective length. The numbers of cars and trucks in each lane were observed upstream of the stop line at a signalized intersection in Windsor, Ontario. Maximum queue length among lanes was estimated in each cycle using second-by-second vehicle count and occupancy data collected from 7 locations of detectors. As a result, the method generally estimated the queue length more accurately than the shock wave method and the estimation errors were relatively consistent regardless of detector locations. The findings provide insights into the development of simpler queue length estimation method and the selection of the optimal location of detectors for accurate queue length estimation

Real-time Traffic Flow Detection and Prediction Algorithm: Data-Driven Analyses on Spatio-Temporal Traffic Dynamics

Traffic flows over time and space. This spatio-temporal dependency of traffic flow should be considered and used to enhance the performance of real-time traffic detection and prediction capabilities. This characteristic has been widely studied and various applications have been developed and enhanced. During the last decade, great attention has been paid to the increases in the number of traffic data sources, the amount of data, and the data-driven analysis methods. There is still room to improve the traffic detection and prediction capabilities through studies on the emerging resources. To this end, this dissertation presents a series of studies on real-time traffic operation for highway facilities focusing on detection and prediction.First, a spatio-temporal traffic data imputation approach was studied to exploit multi-source data. Different types of kriging methods were evaluated to utilize the spatio-temporal characteristic of traffic data with respect to two factors, including missing patterns and use of secondary data. Second, a short-term traffic speed prediction algorithm was proposed that provides accurate prediction results and is scalable for a large road network analysis in real time. The proposed algorithm consists of a data dimension reduction module and a nonparametric multivariate time-series analysis module. Third, a real-time traffic queue detection algorithm was developed based on traffic fundamentals combined with a statistical pattern recognition procedure. This algorithm was designed to detect dynamic queueing conditions in a spatio-temporal domain rather than detect a queue and congestion directly from traffic flow variables. The algorithm was evaluated by using various real congested traffic flow data. Lastly, gray areas in a decision-making process based on quantifiable measures were addressed to cope with uncertainties in modeling outputs. For intersection control type selection, the gray areas were identified and visualized

Identification of Secondary Traffic Crashes and Recommended Countermeasures

Secondary crashes (SCs) usually occur due to congestion or other prior incidents. SCs are increasingly spotted as a significant issue in traffic operations, leading to reduced capacity, extra traffic delays, increased fuel consumption, and additional emissions. SCs have substantial impacts on traffic management resource allocation. One of the challenges in the traffic safety area of the transportation industry is to determine an adequate method for identifying SCs. The specific objectives of this study are: identification of SCs using spatiotemporal criteria and exploring the contributing risk factors to the identified SCs. Two different approaches were explored to identify SCs. The first approach is based on a “static” method that employs a predefined 2 miles-2 hours fixed spatiotemporal threshold. Four-year (2011 to 2014) crash and traffic data from the Crash Analysis Reporting (CAR) system database were used. The linear referencing tool of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) was applied to identify crashes that fell within the threshold. About 1.49% of all crashes were identified as SCs. A Structural Equation Model (SEM) was developed to investigate the contributing risk factors to the occurrence and severity level of SCs. Model results revealed that a series of driver attributes contributed to the occurrence of SCs, including the influence of alcohol or drug, inattentive driving, fatigue or speeding. Other variables that might lead to higher probabilities of SCs include vehicle attributes (brake defects, motorcycles), roadway conditions (roadway surface, vision obstruction) and environmental factors (raining condition Given that about 40% of SCs were rear-end crashes, this study also examined contributing factors to severity levels of rear-end SCs. Results revealed that the presence of horizontal curves, presence of guardrail, and posted speed limit showed a significant influence on the severity level of SCs. Crash modification factors were also developed by considering the roadway and traffic characteristics. In contrast to the static method, the dynamic approach identifies a dynamic spatiotemporal impact area for each primary incident using the Speed Contour Plot method. This analysis was explored using the Regional Integrated Transportation Information System (RITIS) and the SunGuide™ database for the year of 2014-2017. This study further analyzed contributing risk factors to SCs on I-95 and found that SCs were more likely to occur if primary incident clearance times were longer. It also revealed that SCs were more severe at night and on weekends. It implies that timely emergency responses would have a significant effect on mitigating SCs. These findings point to necessary strategies to mitigate SCs, including improved traffic management policies and implementation of advanced intelligent transportation warning systems. One of the challenges in addressing SCs lies in the lack of quality databases (such as speed data and incident information) to appropriately identify and investigate SCs. Therefore, future efforts may focus on institute a framework that combines all levels of databases from multiple sources, which can help timely identification and investigation of SCs. This would lead to the development and implementation of efficient and effective countermeasures to mitigate SC and enhance safety

Freeway Travel Time Prediction Using Data from Mobile Probes

It is widely agreed that estimates of freeway segment travel times are more highly valued by motorists than other forms of traveller information. The provision of real-time estimates of travel times is becoming relatively common in many of the large urban centres in the US and overseas. Presently, most traveler information systems are operating based on estimated travel time rather than predicted travel time. However, traveler information systems are most beneficial when they are built upon predicted traffic information (e.g. predicted travel time). A number of researchers have proposed different models to predict travel time. One of these techniques is based on traffic flow theory and the concept of shockwaves. Most of the past efforts at identifying shockwaves have been focused on performing shockwave analysis based on fixed sensors such as loop detectors which are commonly used in many jurisdictions. However, latest advances in wireless communications have provided an opportunity to obtain vehicle trajectory data that potentially could be used to derive traffic conditions over a wide spatial area. This research proposes a new methodology to detect and analyze shockwaves based on vehicle trajectory data and will use this information to predict travel time for freeway sections. The main idea behind this methodology is that average speed on a section of roadway is constant unless a shockwave is created due to change in flow rate or density of traffic. In the proposed methodology first the road section is discretized into a number of smaller road segments and the average speed of each segment is calculated based on the available information obtained from probe vehicles during the current time interval. If a new shockwave is detected, the average speed of the road segment is adjusted to account for the change in the traffic conditions. In order to detect shockwaves, first, a two phase piecewise linear regression is used to find the points at which a vehicle has changed its speed. Then, the points that correspond to the intersection of shockwaves and trajectories of probe vehicles are identified using a data filtering procedure and a linear clustering algorithm is employed to group different shockwaves. Finally, a linear regression model is applied to find propagation speed and spatial and temporal extent of each shockwave. The performance of this methodology was tested using one simulated signalized intersection, trajectories obtained from video processing of a section of freeway in California, and trajectories obtained from two freeway sections in Ontario. The results of this thesis show that the proposed methodology is able to detect shockwaves and predict travel time even with a small sample of vehicles. These results show that traffic data acquisition systems which are based on anonymously tracking of vehicles are a viable substitution to the tradition traffic data collection systems especially in relatively rural areas

Arterial-level Real-time Safety Evaluation in the Context of Proactive Traffic Management

In the context of pro-active traffic management, real-time safety evaluation is one of the most important components. Previous studies on real-time safety analysis mainly focused on freeways, seldom on arterials. With the advancement of sensing technologies and smart city initiative, more and more real-time traffic data sources are available on arterials, which enables us to evaluate the real-time crash risk on arterials. However, there exist substantial differences between arterials and freeways in terms of traffic flow characteristics, data availability, and even crash mechanism. Therefore, this study aims to deeply evaluate the real-time crash risk on arterials from multiple aspects by integrating all kinds of available data sources. First, Bayesian conditional logistic models (BCL) were developed to examine the relationship between crash occurrence on arterial segments and real-time traffic and signal timing characteristics by incorporating the Bluetooth, adaptive signal control, and weather data, which were extracted from four urban arterials in Central Florida. Second, real-time intersection-approach-level crash risk was investigated by considering the effects of real-time traffic, signal timing, and weather characteristics based on 23 signalized intersections in Orange County. Third, a deep learning algorithm for real-time crash risk prediction at signalized intersections was proposed based on Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Synthetic Minority Over-Sampling Technique (SMOTE). Moreover, in-depth cycle-level real-time crash risk at signalized intersections was explored based on high-resolution event-based data (i.e., Automated Traffic Signal Performance Measures (ATSPM)). All the possible real-time cycle-level factors were considered, including traffic volume, signal timing, headway and occupancy, traffic variation between upstream and downstream detectors, shockwave characteristics, and weather conditions. Above all, comprehensive real-time safety evaluation algorithms were developed for arterials, which would be key components for future real-time safety applications (e.g., real-time crash risk prediction and visualization system) in the context of pro-active traffic management

Short-term Prediction of Freeway Travel Times Using Data from Bluetooth Detectors

There is increasing recognition among travelers, transportation professionals, and decision makers of the importance of the reliability of transportation facilities. An important step towards improving system reliability is developing methods that can be used in practice to predict freeway travel times for the near future (e.g. 5 – 15 minutes). Reliable and accurate predictions of future travel times can be used by travelers to make better decisions and by system operators to engage in pre-active rather than reactive system management. Recent advances in wireless communications and the proliferation of personal devices that communicate wirelessly using the Bluetooth protocol have resulted in the development of a Bluetooth traffic monitoring system. This system is becoming increasingly popular for collecting vehicle travel time data in real-time, mainly because it has the following advantages over other technologies: (1) measuring travel time directly; (2) anonymous detection; (3) weatherproof; and (4) cost-effectiveness. The data collected from Bluetooth detectors are similar to data collected from Automatic Vehicle Identification (AVI) systems using dedicated transponders (e.g. such as electronic toll tags), and therefore using these data for travel time prediction faces some of the same challenges as using AVI measurements, namely: (1) determining the optimal spacing between detectors; (2) dynamic outlier detection and travel time estimation must be able to respond quickly to rapid travel time changes; and (3) a time lag exists between the time when vehicles enter the segment and the time that their travel time can be measured (i.e. when the vehicle exits the monitored segment). In this thesis, a generalized model was proposed to determine the optimal average spacing of Bluetooth detector deployments on urban freeways as a function of the length of the route for which travel times are to be estimated; a traffic flow filtering model was proposed to be applied as an enhancement to existing data-driven outlier detection algorithms as a mechanism to improve outlier detection performance; a short-term prediction model combining outlier filtering algorithm with Kalman filter was proposed for predicting near future freeway travel times using Bluetooth data with special attention to the time lag problem. The results of this thesis indicate that the optimal detector spacing ranges from 2km for routes of 4km in length to 5km for routes of 20km in length; the proposed filtering model is able to solve the problem of tracking sudden changes in travel times and enhance the performance of the data-driven outlier detection algorithms; the proposed short-term prediction model significantly improves the accuracy of travel time prediction for 5, 10 and 15 minutes prediction horizon under both free flow and non-free flow traffic states. The mean absolute relative errors (MARE) are improved by 8.8% to 30.6% under free flow traffic conditions, and 7.5% to 49.9% under non-free flow traffic conditions. The 90th percentile errors and standard deviation of the prediction errors are also improved

A REAL-TIME TRAFFIC CONDITION ASSESSMENT AND PREDICTION FRAMEWORK USING VEHICLE-INFRASTRUCTURE INTEGRATION (VII) WITH COMPUTATIONAL INTELLIGENCE

This research developed a real-time traffic condition assessment and prediction framework using Vehicle-Infrastructure Integration (VII) with computational intelligence to improve the existing traffic surveillance system. Due to the prohibited expenses and complexity involved for the field experiment of such a system, this study adopted state-of-the-art simulation tools as an efficient alternative. This work developed an integrated traffic and communication simulation platform to facilitate the design and evaluation of a wide range of online traffic surveillance and management system in both traffic and communication domain. Using the integrated simulator, the author evaluated the performance of different combination of communication medium and architecture. This evaluation led to the development of a hybrid VII framework exemplified by hierarchical architecture, which is expected to eliminate single point failures, enhance scalability and easy integration of control functions for traffic condition assessment and prediction. In the proposed VII framework, the vehicle on-board equipments and roadside units (RSUs) work collaboratively, based on an intelligent paradigm known as \u27Support Vector Machine (SVM),\u27 to determine the occurrence and characteristics of an incident with the kinetics data generated by vehicles. In addition to incident detection, this research also integrated the computational intelligence paradigm called \u27Support Vector Regression (SVR)\u27 within the hybrid VII framework for improving the travel time prediction capabilities, and supporting on-line leaning functions to improve its performance over time. Two simulation models that fully implemented the functionalities of real-time traffic surveillance were developed on calibrated and validated simulation network for study sites in Greenville and Spartanburg, South Carolina. The simulation models\u27 encouraging performance on traffic condition assessment and prediction justifies further research on field experiment of such a system to address various research issues in the areas covered by this work, such as availability and accuracy of vehicle kinetic and maneuver data, reliability of wireless communication, maintenance of RSUs and wireless repeaters. The impact of this research will provide a reliable alternative to traditional traffic sensors to assess and predict the condition of the transportation system. The integrated simulation methodology and open source software will provide a tool for design and evaluation of any real-time traffic surveillance and management systems. Additionally, the developed VII simulation models will be made available for use by future researchers and designers of other similar VII systems. Future implementation of the research in the private and public sector will result in new VII related equipment in vehicles, greater control of traffic loading, faster incident detection, improved safety, mitigated congestion, and reduced emissions and fuel consumption