Stock market uncertainty determination with news headlines : a digital twin approach

Published online: 13 December 2023We present a novel digital twin model that implements advanced artificial intelligence techniques to robustly link news and stock market uncertainty. On the basis of central results in financial economics, our model efficiently identifies, quantifies, and forecasts the uncertainty encapsulated in the news by mirroring the human mind’s information processing mechanisms. After obtaining full statistical descriptions of the timeline and contextual patterns of the appearances of specific words, the applied data mining techniques lead to the definition of regions of homogeneous knowledge. The absence of a clear assignment of informative elements to specific knowledge regions is regarded as uncertainty, which is then measured and quantified using Shannon Entropy. As compared with standard models, the empirical analyses demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach in anticipating stock market uncertainty, thus showcasing a meaningful integration of natural language processing, artificial intelligence, and information theory to comprehend the perception of uncertainty encapsulated in the news by market agents and its subsequent impact on stock markets

The Metaphysics of Information: the Power and the Glory of Machinehood

Res-Publica : Revista Lusófona de Ciência Política e Relações InternacionaisNão há disciplina em qualquer ramo da ciência, seja esta natural, social, humana, descritiva, experimental ou teórica, qualitativa ou quantitativa, que não tenha sido afectada a vários níveis da instrumentalidade, conceptualização, construção de modelos, escolha de metáforas heurísticas ou ontológicas, e sentidO da investigação, em alguns casos muito profunda e decisivamente, pela influência crescente da constelação informacional computacional. A investigação baseada em simulações por computador é uma “terceira espécie de ciência”, que se soma aos tipos teórico e físico-experimental de trabalho científico. A ciber-ciência é um lugar natural para simular ciência, ou meta-ciberciência, mas todo o conhecimento científico cai no domínio da meta-ciberciência ou da filosofia da ciência computacional. A meta-ciência simula a ciência(o estudo computacional da produção do conhecimento científico); a ciber-ciência é por definição simulatória; a ciber-ciência simula a Natureza; a Natureza, segundo alguns físicos, é ela mesma uma simulação. Receber a categoria da informação nas ciências da vida e nas ciências humanas e sociais, da maneira específica como tem vindo a ocorrer, traz um considerável lastro metafísico: os humanos como máquinas, ultrapassáveis por máquinas inteligentes ou “espirituais”. A informação emerge como a alavanca de Arquimedes para as nossas intervenções n o domínio da vida e do espírito, de máquinas informacionais naturais, com evidentes implicações para a ciência política.There is no discipline in any branch of science, natural science, social science, human science, descriptive, experimental or theoretical, qualitative or quantitative, that has not been affected at various levels of instrumentality, conceptualization, model-building, in the choice of heuristic or ontological metaphors, and the direction of research, in some cases quite profoundly and decisively, by the ascent of the informational computational constellation. Computer simulation research is a “third kind of science”, in addition to theoretical and physical-experimental types of scientific work . Cyber-science is a natural topic for simulating science, or meta-cyberscience, but all scientific knowledge falls within the domain of meta-cyberscience or the computational philosophy of science. Metascience simulates science (the computational study of scientific knowledge production); cyber-science is by definition simulational; cyberscience simulates nature; nature, according to some physicists, is itself a simulation. To receive the category of information in the life-sciences, the human and social sciences, in the specific way that has been taking place, carries quite a metaphysical baggage: humans as machines, surpassable by intelligent or “spiritual” machines. Information emerges as the Archimedean lever for our interventions in the realm of life and mind, of natural information machines, with evident implications for political science

Data ethics : building trust : how digital technologies can serve humanity

Data is the magic word of the 21st century. As oil in the 20th century and electricity in the 19th century: For citizens, data means support in daily life in almost all activities, from watch to laptop, from kitchen to car, from mobile phone to politics. For business and politics, data means power, dominance, winning the race. Data can be used for good and bad, for services and hacking, for medicine and arms race. How can we build trust in this complex and ambiguous data world? How can digital technologies serve humanity? The 45 articles in this book represent a broad range of ethical reflections and recommendations in eight sections: a) Values, Trust and Law, b) AI, Robots and Humans, c) Health and Neuroscience, d) Religions for Digital Justice, e) Farming, Business, Finance, f) Security, War, Peace, g) Data Governance, Geopolitics, h) Media, Education, Communication. The authors and institutions come from all continents. The book serves as reading material for teachers, students, policy makers, politicians, business, hospitals, NGOs and religious organisations alike. It is an invitation for dialogue, debate and building trust! The book is a continuation of the volume “Cyber Ethics 4.0” published in 2018 by the same editors

Three Risky Decades: A Time for Econophysics?

Our Special Issue we publish at a turning point, which we have not dealt with since World War II. The interconnected long-term global shocks such as the coronavirus pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and catastrophic climate change have imposed significant humanitary, socio-economic, political, and environmental restrictions on the globalization process and all aspects of economic and social life including the existence of individual people. The planet is trapped—the current situation seems to be the prelude to an apocalypse whose long-term effects we will have for decades. Therefore, it urgently requires a concept of the planet's survival to be built—only on this basis can the conditions for its development be created. The Special Issue gives evidence of the state of econophysics before the current situation. Therefore, it can provide excellent econophysics or an inter-and cross-disciplinary starting point of a rational approach to a new era

Text Similarity Between Concepts Extracted from Source Code and Documentation

Context: Constant evolution in software systems often results in its documentation losing sync with the content of the source code. The traceability research field has often helped in the past with the aim to recover links between code and documentation, when the two fell out of sync. Objective: The aim of this paper is to compare the concepts contained within the source code of a system with those extracted from its documentation, in order to detect how similar these two sets are. If vastly different, the difference between the two sets might indicate a considerable ageing of the documentation, and a need to update it. Methods: In this paper we reduce the source code of 50 software systems to a set of key terms, each containing the concepts of one of the systems sampled. At the same time, we reduce the documentation of each system to another set of key terms. We then use four different approaches for set comparison to detect how the sets are similar. Results: Using the well known Jaccard index as the benchmark for the comparisons, we have discovered that the cosine distance has excellent comparative powers, and depending on the pre-training of the machine learning model. In particular, the SpaCy and the FastText embeddings offer up to 80% and 90% similarity scores. Conclusion: For most of the sampled systems, the source code and the documentation tend to contain very similar concepts. Given the accuracy for one pre-trained model (e.g., FastText), it becomes also evident that a few systems show a measurable drift between the concepts contained in the documentation and in the source code.</p

Machine learning for the sustainable energy transition: a data-driven perspective along the value chain from manufacturing to energy conversion

According to the special report Global Warming of 1.5 °C of the IPCC, climate action is not only necessary but more than ever urgent. The world is witnessing rising sea levels, heat waves, events of flooding, droughts, and desertification resulting in the loss of lives and damage to livelihoods, especially in countries of the Global South. To mitigate climate change and commit to the Paris agreement, it is of the uttermost importance to reduce greenhouse gas emissions coming from the most emitting sector, namely the energy sector. To this end, large-scale penetration of renewable energy systems into the energy market is crucial for the energy transition toward a sustainable future by replacing fossil fuels and improving access to energy with socio-economic benefits. With the advent of Industry 4.0, Internet of Things technologies have been increasingly applied to the energy sector introducing the concept of smart grid or, more in general, Internet of Energy. These paradigms are steering the energy sector towards more efficient, reliable, flexible, resilient, safe, and sustainable solutions with huge environmental and social potential benefits. To realize these concepts, new information technologies are required, and among the most promising possibilities are Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning which in many countries have already revolutionized the energy industry. This thesis presents different Machine Learning algorithms and methods for the implementation of new strategies to make renewable energy systems more efficient and reliable. It presents various learning algorithms, highlighting their advantages and limits, and evaluating their application for different tasks in the energy context. In addition, different techniques are presented for the preprocessing and cleaning of time series, nowadays collected by sensor networks mounted on every renewable energy system. With the possibility to install large numbers of sensors that collect vast amounts of time series, it is vital to detect and remove irrelevant, redundant, or noisy features, and alleviate the curse of dimensionality, thus improving the interpretability of predictive models, speeding up their learning process, and enhancing their generalization properties. Therefore, this thesis discussed the importance of dimensionality reduction in sensor networks mounted on renewable energy systems and, to this end, presents two novel unsupervised algorithms. The first approach maps time series in the network domain through visibility graphs and uses a community detection algorithm to identify clusters of similar time series and select representative parameters. This method can group both homogeneous and heterogeneous physical parameters, even when related to different functional areas of a system. The second approach proposes the Combined Predictive Power Score, a method for feature selection with a multivariate formulation that explores multiple sub-sets of expanding variables and identifies the combination of features with the highest predictive power over specified target variables. This method proposes a selection algorithm for the optimal combination of variables that converges to the smallest set of predictors with the highest predictive power. Once the combination of variables is identified, the most relevant parameters in a sensor network can be selected to perform dimensionality reduction. Data-driven methods open the possibility to support strategic decision-making, resulting in a reduction of Operation &amp; Maintenance costs, machine faults, repair stops, and spare parts inventory size. Therefore, this thesis presents two approaches in the context of predictive maintenance to improve the lifetime and efficiency of the equipment, based on anomaly detection algorithms. The first approach proposes an anomaly detection model based on Principal Component Analysis that is robust to false alarms, can isolate anomalous conditions, and can anticipate equipment failures. The second approach has at its core a neural architecture, namely a Graph Convolutional Autoencoder, which models the sensor network as a dynamical functional graph by simultaneously considering the information content of individual sensor measurements (graph node features) and the nonlinear correlations existing between all pairs of sensors (graph edges). The proposed neural architecture can capture hidden anomalies even when the turbine continues to deliver the power requested by the grid and can anticipate equipment failures. Since the model is unsupervised and completely data-driven, this approach can be applied to any wind turbine equipped with a SCADA system. When it comes to renewable energies, the unschedulable uncertainty due to their intermittent nature represents an obstacle to the reliability and stability of energy grids, especially when dealing with large-scale integration. Nevertheless, these challenges can be alleviated if the natural sources or the power output of renewable energy systems can be forecasted accurately, allowing power system operators to plan optimal power management strategies to balance the dispatch between intermittent power generations and the load demand. To this end, this thesis proposes a multi-modal spatio-temporal neural network for multi-horizon wind power forecasting. In particular, the model combines high-resolution Numerical Weather Prediction forecast maps with turbine-level SCADA data and explores how meteorological variables on different spatial scales together with the turbines' internal operating conditions impact wind power forecasts. The world is undergoing a third energy transition with the main goal to tackle global climate change through decarbonization of the energy supply and consumption patterns. This is not only possible thanks to global cooperation and agreements between parties, power generation systems advancements, and Internet of Things and Artificial Intelligence technologies but also necessary to prevent the severe and irreversible consequences of climate change that are threatening life on the planet as we know it. This thesis is intended as a reference for researchers that want to contribute to the sustainable energy transition and are approaching the field of Artificial Intelligence in the context of renewable energy systems

Computational socioeconomics

Uncovering the structure of socioeconomic systems and timely estimation of socioeconomic status are significant for economic development. The understanding of socioeconomic processes provides foundations to quantify global economic development, to map regional industrial structure, and to infer individual socioeconomic status. In this review, we will make a brief manifesto about a new interdisciplinary research field named Computational Socioeconomics, followed by detailed introduction about data resources, computational tools, data-driven methods, theoretical models and novel applications at multiple resolutions, including the quantification of global economic inequality and complexity, the map of regional industrial structure and urban perception, the estimation of individual socioeconomic status and demographic, and the real-time monitoring of emergent events. This review, together with pioneering works we have highlighted, will draw increasing interdisciplinary attentions and induce a methodological shift in future socioeconomic studies

31th International Conference on Information Modelling and Knowledge Bases

Information modelling is becoming more and more important topic for researchers, designers, and users of information systems.The amount and complexity of information itself, the number of abstractionlevels of information, and the size of databases and knowledge bases arecontinuously growing. Conceptual modelling is one of the sub-areas ofinformation modelling. The aim of this conference is to bring together experts from different areas of computer science and other disciplines, who have a common interest in understanding and solving problems on information modelling and knowledge bases, as well as applying the results of research to practice. We also aim to recognize and study new areas on modelling and knowledge bases to which more attention should be paid. Therefore philosophy and logic, cognitive science, knowledge management, linguistics and management science are relevant areas, too. In the conference, there will be three categories of presentations, i.e. full papers, short papers and position papers

AI for Everyone?

We are entering a new era of technological determinism and solutionism in which governments and business actors are seeking data-driven change, assuming that Artificial Intelligence is now inevitable and ubiquitous. But we have not even started asking the right questions, let alone developed an understanding of the consequences. Urgently needed is debate that asks and answers fundamental questions about power. This book brings together critical interrogations of what constitutes AI, its impact and its inequalities in order to offer an analysis of what it means for AI to deliver benefits for everyone. The book is structured in three parts: Part 1, AI: Humans vs. Machines, presents critical perspectives on human-machine dualism. Part 2, Discourses and Myths About AI, excavates metaphors and policies to ask normative questions about what is ‘desirable’ AI and what conditions make this possible. Part 3, AI Power and Inequalities, discusses how the implementation of AI creates important challenges that urgently need to be addressed. Bringing together scholars from diverse disciplinary backgrounds and regional contexts, this book offers a vital intervention on one of the most hyped concepts of our times