Efficient state-space inference of periodic latent force models

Latent force models (LFM) are principled approaches to incorporating solutions to differen-tial equations within non-parametric inference methods. Unfortunately, the developmentand application of LFMs can be inhibited by their computational cost, especially whenclosed-form solutions for the LFM are unavailable, as is the case in many real world prob-lems where these latent forces exhibit periodic behaviour. Given this, we develop a newsparse representation of LFMs which considerably improves their computational efficiency,as well as broadening their applicability, in a principled way, to domains with periodic ornear periodic latent forces. Our approach uses a linear basis model to approximate onegenerative model for each periodic force. We assume that the latent forces are generatedfrom Gaussian process priors and develop a linear basis model which fully expresses thesepriors. We apply our approach to model the thermal dynamics of domestic buildings andshow that it is effective at predicting day-ahead temperatures within the homes. We alsoapply our approach within queueing theory in which quasi-periodic arrival rates are mod-elled as latent forces. In both cases, we demonstrate that our approach can be implemented efficiently using state-space methods which encode the linear dynamic systems via LFMs.Further, we show that state estimates obtained using periodic latent force models can re-duce the root mean squared error to 17% of that from non-periodic models and 27% of thenearest rival approach which is the resonator model (S ̈arkk ̈a et al., 2012; Hartikainen et al.,2012.

SEIS: Insight's Seismic Experiment for Internal Structure of Mars.

By the end of 2018, 42 years after the landing of the two Viking seismometers on Mars, InSight will deploy onto Mars' surface the SEIS (Seismic Experiment for Internal Structure) instrument; a six-axes seismometer equipped with both a long-period three-axes Very Broad Band (VBB) instrument and a three-axes short-period (SP) instrument. These six sensors will cover a broad range of the seismic bandwidth, from 0.01 Hz to 50 Hz, with possible extension to longer periods. Data will be transmitted in the form of three continuous VBB components at 2 sample per second (sps), an estimation of the short period energy content from the SP at 1 sps and a continuous compound VBB/SP vertical axis at 10 sps. The continuous streams will be augmented by requested event data with sample rates from 20 to 100 sps. SEIS will improve upon the existing resolution of Viking's Mars seismic monitoring by a factor of ∼ 2500 at 1 Hz and ∼ 200 000 at 0.1 Hz. An additional major improvement is that, contrary to Viking, the seismometers will be deployed via a robotic arm directly onto Mars' surface and will be protected against temperature and wind by highly efficient thermal and wind shielding. Based on existing knowledge of Mars, it is reasonable to infer a moment magnitude detection threshold of M w ∼ 3 at 40 ∘ epicentral distance and a potential to detect several tens of quakes and about five impacts per year. In this paper, we first describe the science goals of the experiment and the rationale used to define its requirements. We then provide a detailed description of the hardware, from the sensors to the deployment system and associated performance, including transfer functions of the seismic sensors and temperature sensors. We conclude by describing the experiment ground segment, including data processing services, outreach and education networks and provide a description of the format to be used for future data distribution.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s11214-018-0574-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

PRISE: An Integrated Platform for Research and Teaching of Critical Embedded Systems

In this paper, we present PRISE, an integrated workbench for Research and Teaching of critical embedded systems at ISAE, the French Institute for Space and Aeronautics Engineering. PRISE is built around state-of-the-art technologies for the engineering of space and avionics systems used in Space and Avionics domain. It aims at demonstrating key aspects of critical, real-time, embedded systems used in the transport industry, but also validating new scientific contributions for the engineering of software functions. PRISE combines embedded and simulation platforms, and modeling tools. This platform is available for both research and teaching. Being built around widely used commercial and open source software; PRISE aims at being a reference platform for our teaching and research activities at ISAE

Correlating low energy impact damage with changes in modal parameters: diagnosis tools and FE validation

This paper presents a basic experimental technique and simplified FE based models for the detection, localization and quantification of impact damage in composite beams around the BVID level. Detection of damage is carried out by shift in modal parameters. Localization of damage is done by a topology optimization tool which showed that correct damage locations can be found rather efficiently for low-level damage. The novelty of this paper is that we develop an All In One (AIO) package dedicated to impact identification by modal analysis. The damaged zones in the FE models are updated by reducing the most sensitive material property in order to improve the experimental/numerical correlation of the frequency response functions. These approximate damage models(in term of equivalent rigidity) give us a simple degradation factor that can serve as a warning regarding structure safety

An efficient and versatile approach to trust and reputation using hierarchical Bayesian modelling

In many dynamic open systems, autonomous agents must interact with one another to achieve their goals. Such agents may be self-interested and, when trusted to perform an action, may betray that trust by not performing the action as required. Due to the scale and dynamism of these systems, agents will often need to interact with other agents with which they have little or no past experience. Each agent must therefore be capable of assessing and identifying reliable interaction partners, even if it has no personal experience with them. To this end, we present HABIT, a Hierarchical And Bayesian Inferred Trust model for assessing how much an agent should trust its peers based on direct and third party information. This model is robust in environments in which third party information is malicious, noisy, or otherwise inaccurate. Although existing approaches claim to achieve this, most rely on heuristics with little theoretical foundation. In contrast, HABIT is based exclusively on principled statistical techniques: it can cope with multiple discrete or continuous aspects of trustee behaviour; it does not restrict agents to using a single shared representation of behaviour; it can improve assessment by using any observed correlation between the behaviour of similar trustees or information sources; and it provides a pragmatic solution to the whitewasher problem (in which unreliable agents assume a new identity to avoid bad reputation). In this paper, we describe the theoretical aspects of HABIT, and present experimental results that demonstrate its ability to predict agent behaviour in both a simulated environment, and one based on data from a real-world webserver domain. In particular, these experiments show that HABIT can predict trustee performance based on multiple representations of behaviour, and is up to twice as accurate as BLADE, an existing state-of-the-art trust model that is both statistically principled and has been previously shown to outperform a number of other probabilistic trust models

Development Challenges of Secondary and Small Airports in California, Research Report 11-21

This study investigates the development of secondary and smaller airports in California. Low-Cost Carrier (LCC) business is growing at these airports because they offer reduced operating costs, and they have adequate capacity to help LCCs avoid battling with incumbent airlines at the large hubs for limited resources, such as gates. However, increased LCC aircraft operations at the secondary airports have led to significant noise impacts on the surrounding communities and this has been a challenge for the secondary airport operators. They have imposed operational curfews to limit the noise impacts, but this approach constrains the resident airlines that want to increase their traffic. As a result, some LCCs have begun to initiate flights out of the large hubs. Statistics from this study show that the LCCs have replaced the legacy airlines as the dominant air provider in the state. With their growing dominance, the LCCs will become more attractive to the large hub airports, and the secondary airports will face increased competition in retaining them. To retain those LCCs, the secondary airports must better understand how LCCs make investment decisions related to airport development. At the same time, they must better educate the LCCs about their airport needs

IVOA Recommendation: Simple Spectral Access Protocol Version 1.1

The Simple Spectral Access (SSA) Protocol (SSAP) defines a uniform interface to remotely discover and access one dimensional spectra. SSA is a member of an integrated family of data access interfaces altogether comprising the Data Access Layer (DAL) of the IVOA. SSA is based on a more general data model capable of describing most tabular spectrophotometric data, including time series and spectral energy distributions (SEDs) as well as 1-D spectra; however the scope of the SSA interface as specified in this document is limited to simple 1-D spectra, including simple aggregations of 1-D spectra. The form of the SSA interface is simple: clients first query the global resource registry to find services of interest and then issue a data discovery query to selected services to determine what relevant data is available from each service; the candidate datasets available are described uniformly in a VOTable format document which is returned in response to the query. Finally, the client may retrieve selected datasets for analysis. Spectrum datasets returned by an SSA spectrum service may be either precomputed, archival datasets, or they may be virtual data which is computed on the fly to respond to a client request. Spectrum datasets may conform to a standard data model defined by SSA, or may be native spectra with custom project-defined content. Spectra may be returned in any of a number of standard data formats. Spectral data is generally stored externally to the VO in a format specific to each spectral data collection; currently there is no standard way to represent astronomical spectra, and virtually every project does it differently. Hence spectra may be actively mediated to the standard SSA-defined data model at access time by the service, so that client analysis programs do not have to be familiar with the idiosyncratic details of each data collection to be accessed