Rolling schedule approaches for supply chain operations planning

Supply Chain Operations Planning (SCOP) involves the determination of an extensive production plan for a network of manufacturing and distribution entities within and across organizations. The production plan consist of order release decisions that allocate materials and resources in order to transform these materials into (intermediate) products. We use the word item for both materials, intermediate products, and end-products. Furthermore, we consider arbitrary supply chains, i.e. the products produced by the supply chain as a whole and sold to customers consist of multiple items, where each item may in turn consists of multiple items and where each item may be used in multiple items as well. The aim of SCOP is not only to obtain a feasible production plan, but the plan must be determined such that pre-specified customer service levels are met while minimizing cost. To obtain optimal production plans we use a linear programming (LP) model. The reason we use an LP model is twofold. First, LP models can easily be incorporated in existing Advanced Planning Systems (APS). Second, while the multi-echelon inventory concept can only be used for uncapacitated supply chains and some special cases of capacitated supply chains, capacity constraints but also other restrictions can easily added to LP models. In former mathematical programming (MP) models, the needed capacity was allocated at a fixed time offset. This time offset was indicated by fixed or minimum lead times. By the introduction of planned lead times with multi-period capacity allocation, an additional degree of freedom is created, namely the timing of capacity allocation during the planned lead time. When using the LP model in a rolling schedule context, timing the capacity allocation properly can reduce the inventory cost. Although the number of studies on MP models for solving the SCOP or related problems are carried out by various researchers is enormous, only a few of these studies use a rolling schedule. Production plans are only calculated for a fixed time horizon based on the forecast of customers demand. However, since customer demand is uncertain, we emphasize the use of a rolling schedule. This implies that a production plan, based on sales forecasts, is calculated for a time interval (0; T], but only executed for the first period. At time 1, the actual demand of the first period is known, and the inventory status of the consumer products are adjusted according the actual demand. For time interval (1; T + 1], a new production plan is calculated. In this thesis, we studied the proposed LP strategy with planned lead times in a rolling schedule setting whereby we focused on the following topics: ² timing of production within the planned lead time, ² factors influencing the optimal planned lead time, ² early availability of produced items, i.e. availability of items before the end of their planned lead time, and ² balanced material allocation. In the first three studies we explore the possibilities of using planned lead times. In the first study, timing of production, we compare the situation whereby released items are produced as soon as there is available capacity with the situation whereby released items are produced as late as possible within the planned lead time. If items are produced as soon as possible, there is more capacity left for future production. Since we work with uncertain customer demand whereby demand may be larger than expected, this capacity might be very useful. A drawback of production as soon as possible are the additional work-in-process cost. The results of simulation studies show that if the utilization rates of resources and/or the variation in demand are high, producing early is better. However this is only the case if the added value between the concerned item and the end item is high. The second study deals with factors influencing the optimal planned lead time. From queuing theory it is already known that the variance in demand and the utilization rate of the resources determine the waiting time. More variation and/or higher utilization rates give longer waiting times. Since lead times consist for a large part of waiting time, these two factors most probably also influence the length of the optimal planned lead time. For a set of representative supply chain structures we showed that this was indeed the case. With longer planned lead times, the flexibility in capacity allocation is higher. Additional flexibility gives lower safety stocks, but longer planned lead times also means more work-in-process. Hence, an important third factor which influence the optimal planned lead time is the holding costs structure. When using planned lead times, early produced items have to wait the remainder of their planned lead time. This seems contradictory, especially if these items are necessary to avoid or reduce backorders. Therefore we adapt the standard LP model in two ways. In the first model, items are made available for succeeding production steps directly after they are produced. And in the second model, produced items are only made available for succeeding production steps if they are needed to avoid or reduce backorders. Experiments showed that the first model does not improve the performance of the standard LP strategy. The advantages of planned lead times longer than one period are nullified by early availability of produced items. The second model indeed improves the performance of the standard LP strategy, but only when the planned lead times are optimal or longer. Comparing the introduced LP strategy with a so-called synchronized base stock policy under the assumption of infinite capacity, it turned out that the LP strategy is outperformed by the base stock policy. In order to obtain a better performance, we Summary 121 added linear allocation rules to the LP model. With these allocation rules shortages of child items are divided among the parent items using a predefined allocation fraction. A second way of balanced allocation of child items is obtained by replacing the linear objective function by a quadratic one. The results of a well-chosen set of experiments showed that although the synchronized base stock policy also outperforms the adjusted LP strategies, the difference in performance is small. Hence, the adjusted LP strategies are good alternatives for large, capacitated supply chain structures which cannot be solved by synchronized base stock policies. Comparing the model with linear allocation rules with the model with quadratic objective function, the preference is given to the latter model. This model does not only give the lowest inventory costs, it also has the shortest computation time. Furthermore, this model can easily be implemented and solved by existing software. Summarizing the main results of this thesis, we conclude that deterministic LP models can be used to solve the SCOP problem with stochastic demand by using the LP model in a rolling schedule concept. By using optimal planned lead times with multiperiod capacity allocation, early production during the planned lead times, and early availability of needed produced items before the end of the planned lead time, we can decrease the inventory costs. The costs can also be reduced by using allocation strategies to allocate shortages among parent items proportionally. Especially the results for the model with quadratic objective function are promising

Production planning mechanisms in demand-driven wood remanufacturing industry

L'objectif principal de cette thèse est d'étudier le problème de planification de la production dans le contexte d'une demande incertaine, d’un niveau de service variable et d’approvisionnements incontrôlables dans une usine de seconde transformation du bois. Les activités de planification et de contrôle de production sont des tâches intrinsèquement complexes et difficiles pour les entreprises de seconde transformation du bois. La complexité vient de certaines caractéristiques intrinsèques de cette industrie, comme la co-production, les procédés alternatifs divergents, les systèmes de production sur commande (make-to-order), des temps de setup variables et une offre incontrôlable. La première partie de cette thèse propose une plate-forme d'optimisation/simulation permettant de prendre des décisions concernant le choix d'une politique de planification de la production, pour traiter rapidement les demandes incertaines, tout en tenant compte des caractéristiques complexes de l'industrie de la seconde transformation du bois. À cet effet, une stratégie de re-planification périodique basée sur un horizon roulant est utilisée et validée par un modèle de simulation utilisant des données réelles provenant d'un partenaire industriel. Dans la deuxième partie de cette thèse, une méthode de gestion des stocks de sécurité dynamique est proposée afin de mieux gérer le niveau de service, qui est contraint par une capacité de production limitée et à la complexité de la gestion des temps de mise en course. Nous avons ainsi développé une approche de re-planification périodique à deux phases, dans laquelle des capacités non-utilisées (dans la première phase) sont attribuées (dans la seconde phase) afin de produire certains produits jugés importants, augmentant ainsi la capacité du système à atteindre le niveau de stock de sécurité. Enfin, dans la troisième partie de la thèse, nous étudions l’impact d’un approvisionnement incontrôlable sur la planification de la production. Différents scénarios d'approvisionnement servent à identifier les seuils critiques dans les variations de l’offre. Le cadre proposé permet aux gestionnaires de comprendre l'impact de politiques d'approvisionnement proposées pour faire face aux incertitudes. Les résultats obtenus à travers les études de cas considérés montrent que les nouvelles approches proposées dans cette thèse constituent des outils pratiques et efficaces pour la planification de production du bois.The main objective of this thesis is to investigate the production planning problem in the context of uncertain demand, variable service level, and uncontrollable supply in a wood remanufacturing mill. Production planning and control activities are complex and represent difficult tasks for wood remanufacturers. The complexity comes from inherent characteristics of the industry such as divergent co-production, alternative processes, make-to-order, short customer lead times, variable setup time, and uncontrollable supply. The first part of this thesis proposes an optimization/simulation platform to make decisions about the selection of a production planning policy to deal swiftly with uncertain demands, under the complex characteristics of the wood remanufacturing industry. For this purpose, a periodic re-planning strategy based on a rolling horizon was used and validated through a simulation model using real data from an industrial partner. The computational results highlighted the significance of using the re-planning model as a practical tool for production planning under unstable demands. In the second part, a dynamic safety stock method was proposed to better manage service level, which was threatened by issues related to limited production capacity and the complexity of setup time. We developed a two-phase periodic re-planning approach whereby idle capacities were allocated to produce more important products thus increasing the realization of safety stock level. Numerical results indicated that the solution of the two-phase method was superior to the initial method in terms of backorder level as well as inventory level. Finally, we studied the impact of uncontrollable supply on demand-driven wood remanufacturing production planning through an optimization and simulation framework. Different supply scenarios were used to identify the safety threshold of supply changes. The proposed framework provided managers with a novel advanced planning approach that allowed understanding the impact of supply policies to deal with uncertainties. In general, the wood products industry offers a rich environment for dealing with uncertainties for which the literature fails to provide efficient solutions. Regarding the results that were obtained through the case studies, we believe that approaches proposed in this thesis can be considered as novel and practical tools for wood remanufacturing production planning

METAHEURISTICS FOR OPTIMIZING SAFETY STOCK IN MULTI STAGE INVENTORY SYSTEM

Managing the right level of inventory is critical in order to achieve the targeted level of customer service, but it also carries significant cost in supply chain. In majority of cases companies define safety stock on the most downstream level, i.e. the finished product level, using different analytical methods. Safety stock on upstream level, however, usually covers only those problems which companies face on that particular level (uncertainty of delivery, issues in production, etc.). This paper looks into optimizing safety stock in a pharmaceutical supply considering the three stages inventory system. The problem is defined as a single criterion mixed integer programming problem. The objective is to minimize the inventory cost while the service level is predetermined. In order to coordinate inventories at all echelons, the variable representing the so-called service time is introduced. Because of the problem dimensions, metaheuristics based on genetic algorithm and simulated annealing are constructed and compared, using real data from a Croatian pharmaceutical company. The computational results are presented evidencing improvements in minimizing inventory costs

Order release strategies to control outsourced operations in a supply chain

In this paper, we propose and compare three different order release strategies to plan and control outsourced operations in a supply chian where the contract manfacturer is producing different variants of a certain product

Planning of outsourced operations in pharmaceutical supply chains

In this dissertation, we focus on the planning and control of supply chains where part of the supply chain is outsourced to a contract manufacturer(s). Supply Chain Management deals with the integration of business processes from end-customers through original suppliers that provide products, services and information that add value for customers (Cooper et al., 1997). In a narrow sense, a supply chain can be ‘owned’ by one large company with several sites, often located in different countries. Planning and coordinating the materials and information flows within such a worldwide operating company can be a challenging task. However, the decision making is easier than in case more companies are involved in a supply chain, since the sites are part of one organization with one board and it is likely that the decision makers have full access to information needed for the supply chain planning. Outsourcing is an ‘act of moving some of a firm’s internal activities and decision responsibilities to outside providers’ (Chase et al., 2004) and it has been studied extensively in the literature.Outsourcing is developing in many industries, but in this dissertation, we focus on outsourcing in the pharmaceutical industry, where outsourced supply chain structures are rapidly developing. Recent studies show that the global pharmaceutical outsourcing market has doubled from 2001 to 2007 and it is expected to further increase in the upcoming years. In the pharmaceutical industry, the outsourcing relationship is typically long-term and customers often require high service levels. Due to high setup costs, production is conducted in fixed large batch sizes and campaign sizes. The cumulative lead time within the supply chain is more than one year, whereas the customer lead time is about two months. In this industry, production activities are outsourced for three main reasons. First, intellectual property legislation requires outsourcing the production activities to a contract manufacturer that owns the patent for specific technologies that are needed to perform the production activities. Second, expensive technologies or tight (internal) capacity restrictions also result in outsourcing. Third, to limit the supply uncertainty, companies outsource to have an external source producing the same product next to an internal source. This dissertation deals with the planning and control of outsourced supply chains, which are supply chains where part of the supply chain is outsourced to a contract manufacturer. Most supply chain operations planning models from the literature assume that the supply chain is planned at some level of aggregation and that further coordination is conducted at a more detailed level by lower planning levels. These concepts implicitly assume that the lower planning level and the operations are conducted within the same company with full information availability and full control over the operations, which is not case when part of the supply chain is outsourced. Hence, the objective of this dissertation is to obtain insights into the implications of outsourcing on the supply chain planning models. First, we review the literature on outsourcing research and we find that little is known on the operational planning decisions in an outsourced supply chain and on the implications of outsourcing on the operations planning. The literature on outsourcing at the operational level uses outsourcing purely as a secondary source to control performances such as the delivery reliability. Consequently, we discuss two case studies that we conducted into outsourced supply chains to understand the implications of outsourcing on the supply chain operations planning function, where the contract manufacturer is the only source of supply. The main implications of the planning and control of outsourced supply chains can be summarized in three categories: limited information transparency, limited control over the detailed planning and priorities at the contract manufacturer, and contractual obligations. Below, we discuss these in more detail. In order to decide on the release of materials and resources in a supply chain, it is required that the decision maker is able to frequently monitor the status of the supply chain. In an outsourced supply chain, the outsourcer does not have access to all relevant information of the entire supply chain, especially not to the available capacity in each period, also because the contract manufacturer serves a number of different (and sometimes even competing) outsourcers on the same production line. Moreover, the contract manufacturer plans and controls its part of the supply chain based on rules and priorities that are unknown to the outsourcer. This results in facing an uncertain capacity allocation by the outsourcer. Another implication is that the contract manufacturer requires by contract to reserve capacity slots prior to ordering. These reservations are subject to an acceptation decision, which means that part of the reservation quantity can be rejected. The accepted reservation quantity bounds the order quantity that follows later on. Therefore, another main insight from the case study is that in an outsourcing relationship, the order process consists of different (hierarchically connected) decisions in time. In the ordering process, the uncertain capacity allocation of the contract manufacturer should be incorporated. Hence, the order release mechanism requires a richer and more developed communication and ordering pattern than commonly assumed in practice. In a subsequent study, we build on this insight and we design three different order release mechanisms to investigate to what extent a more complicated order release function improves (or deteriorates) the performance of the supply chain operations planning models. The order release mechanisms differ in the number of decision levels and they incorporate the probabilistic behaviour of the contract manufacturer. Based on a simulation study, we show that a more advanced order release strategy that captures the characteristics of outsourcing performs significantly better than a simple order release strategy that is commonly used in practice. We also discuss the conditions for a successful implementation of the more advanced order release strategy. In another study, we study the case where the contract manufacturer is a second source next to an internal manufacturing source for the same product and where the outsourcer faces inaccurate demand forecasts. The two sources are constraining the supply quantities in different ways. Its own manufacturing source is more rigid, cheaper and tightly capacitated, whereas the contract manufacturer is more flexible but more expensive. In that study, we compare the performance of two different allocation strategies by a simulation study in which we solve the model in a rolling horizon setting. The results show that the rigid allocation strategy (the cheaper source supplies each period a constant quantity) performs substantially better than the dynamic allocation strategy (each period the allocation quantities are dynamic) if the parameters are chosen properly. In another study, we study the outsourcer’s problem of deciding on the optimal reservation quantity under capacity uncertainty, i.e., without knowing what part of the reservation will be accepted. In that study, we develop a stochastic dynamic programming model for the problem and we characterize the optimal reservation and order policies. We conduct a numerical study where we also consider the case where the capacity allocation is dependent on the demand distribution. For that case, we show the structure of the optimal policies based on the numerical study. Further, the numerical results reveal several interesting managerial insights, such as that the optimal reservation policy is little sensitive to the uncertainty of the capacity allocation from the contract manufacturer. In that case, the optimal reservation quantities hardly increase, but the optimal policy suggests increasing the utilization of the allocated capacity. We also study the outsourced supply chain from the contract manufacturer’s perspective. In that study, we consider the case where the contract manufacturer serves a number of outsourcers with different levels of uncertainty. The contract manufacturer faces the question of how to allocate the contractual capacity flexibility in an optimal way. More precisely, we focus on the contract manufacturer’s decision to make the acceptation decision under uncertainty. The more the contract manufacturer accepts from an outsourcer, the more risk is taken by the contract manufacturer, as the outsourcer might not fully utilize the accepted reservation quantity. However, we assume that the outsourcer is willing to pay an additional amount to compensate the contract manufacturer for that risk. We develop a mixed-integer programming model, which optimizes the allocation of capacity flexibility by maximizing the expected profit. Offering more flexibility to the more risky outsourcer generates higher revenue, but also increases the penalty costs. The allocated capacity flexibilities are input (parameters) to the lower decision level, where the operational planning decisions are made and demands are observed. The simulation results reveal interesting managerial insights, such that the more uncertain outsourcer gets at least the same capacity flexibility allocated as the less uncertain outsourcer. Moreover, we have seen that when the acceptation decision is made, priority is given to the less uncertain outsourcer, because that information is the most valuable. However, we see the opposite effect when orders are placed, namely that priority is given to the more uncertain outsourcer, i.e., the most paying outsourcer, as no uncertainty is involved anymore. These insights are helpful for managers of contract manufacturers when having contract negotiations with the outsourcers. We believe that the results and insights that we obtained in the various research studies of this dissertation can contribute to solving the broader real-life problems related to the planning and control of outsourced supply chains. We also discuss potential managerial implications of our findings explicitly addressing the management decisions that may be affected by using the insights from our studies. Considering the operational implications of outsourcing when taking the strategic outsourcing decision will lead to a different and a better estimate of the transaction costs and probably to a different strategic outsourcing decision. Based on our research, we think that the transaction cost estimate will be higher if the outsourcer and the contract manufacturer do not agree on operational issues, such as the multi-level order release mechanism. From a tactical point of view, the outsourcer may include the options of postponement and cancellation in the contract, even if the contract manufacturer would charge little extra for these options. The results show that the benefits of including these options are substantial. Moreover, we showed that controlling a contract manufacturer operationally in the same way as an internal manufacturing source leads to a nervous ordering behaviour with a lot of changes and a lot of panicky communication between the outsourcer and the contract manufacturer. Combining the insights from different studies, one can also conclude that including little reservation cost is beneficial to both parties; it leads to a win-win situation. The outsourcer with a high level of demand uncertainty secures sufficient capacity allocation from the contract manufacturer and avoids more expensive penalty costs. For the outsourcer with less demand uncertainty, it is wise to set the contract such that the reservation costs are subtracted from the total paid amount. Moreover, this outsourcer may gain competitive advantage if his competitors operate in the same market by securing sufficient capacity allocation (by paying little reservation costs). For the contract manufacturer, including reservation cost is also beneficial, as it leads to a better match between the outsourcer’s reservation and ordering behaviour

A rolling horizon simulation approach for managing demand with lead time variability

[EN] This paper proposes a rolling horizon (RH) approach to deal with management problems under dynamic demand in planning horizons with variable lead times using system dynamics (SD) simulation. Thus, the nature of dynamic RH solutions entails no inconveniences to contemplate planning horizons with unpredictable demands. This is mainly because information is periodically updated and replanning is done in time. Therefore, inventory and logistic costs may be lower. For the first time, an RH is applied for demand management with variable lead times along with SD simulation models, which allowed the use of lot-sizing techniques to be evaluated (Wagner-Whitin and Silver-Meal). The basic scenario is based on a real-world example from an automotive single-level SC composed of a first-tier supplier and a car assembler that contemplates uncertain demands while planning the RH and 216 subscenarios by modifying constant and variable lead times, holding costs and order costs, combined with lot-sizing techniques. Twenty-eight more replications comprising 504 new subscenarios with variable lead times are generated to represent a relative variation coefficient of the initial demand. We conclude that our RH simulation approach, along with lot-sizing techniques, can generate more sustainable planning results in total costs, fill rates and bullwhip effect terms.This work was supported by the European Commission Horizon 2020 project Diverfarming [grant number 728003].Campuzano Bolarin, F.; Mula, J.; Díaz-Madroñero Boluda, FM.; Legaz-Aparicio, Á. (2020). A rolling horizon simulation approach for managing demand with lead time variability. 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Cost implications of planned lead times in supply chain operations planning

In this paper we consider Supply Chain Operations Planning (SCOP) in a rolling horizon context under demand uncertainty. Production plans are calculated using a linear programming model. While in most mathematical programming models for SCOP the lead time is considered to be equal to zero or equal to the minimum processing time, we consider planned lead times. In this paper we concentrate on the optimal setting of the planned lead time. From queueing theory we know that the waiting time depends on the variance of the inter arrival times and on the utilization rate of the server. Since lead time consists for a part of waiting time, we consider the setting of planned lead times for various combinations of demand variance and utilization rates. A third factor we consider in the experiments is the difference in holding costs between the items produced by the capacitated resource and the end items. The results show that models with planned lead times are preferable above previous models without planned lead times

Modeling Industrial Lot Sizing Problems: A Review

In this paper we give an overview of recent developments in the field of modeling single-level dynamic lot sizing problems. The focus of this paper is on the modeling various industrial extensions and not on the solution approaches. The timeliness of such a review stems from the growing industry need to solve more realistic and comprehensive production planning problems. First, several different basic lot sizing problems are defined. Many extensions of these problems have been proposed and the research basically expands in two opposite directions. The first line of research focuses on modeling the operational aspects in more detail. The discussion is organized around five aspects: the set ups, the characteristics of the production process, the inventory, demand side and rolling horizon. The second direction is towards more tactical and strategic models in which the lot sizing problem is a core substructure, such as integrated production-distribution planning or supplier selection. Recent advances in both directions are discussed. Finally, we give some concluding remarks and point out interesting areas for future research