55,825 research outputs found

    Sharper asset ranking from total drawdown durations

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    The total duration of drawdowns is shown to provide a moment-free, unbiased, efficient and robust estimator of Sharpe ratios both for Gaussian and heavy-tailed price returns. We then use this quantity to infer an analytic expression of the bias of moment-based Sharpe ratio estimators as a function of the return distribution tail exponent. The heterogeneity of tail exponents at any given time among assets implies that our new method yields significantly different asset rankings than those of moment-based methods, especially in periods large volatility. This is fully confirmed by using 20 years of historical data on 3449 liquid US equities.Comment: 21 pages, 12 figure

    p-probabilistic k-anonymous microaggregation for the anonymization of surveys with uncertain participation

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    We develop a probabilistic variant of k-anonymous microaggregation which we term p-probabilistic resorting to a statistical model of respondent participation in order to aggregate quasi-identifiers in such a manner that k-anonymity is concordantly enforced with a parametric probabilistic guarantee. Succinctly owing the possibility that some respondents may not finally participate, sufficiently larger cells are created striving to satisfy k-anonymity with probability at least p. The microaggregation function is designed before the respondents submit their confidential data. More precisely, a specification of the function is sent to them which they may verify and apply to their quasi-identifying demographic variables prior to submitting the microaggregated data along with the confidential attributes to an authorized repository. We propose a number of metrics to assess the performance of our probabilistic approach in terms of anonymity and distortion which we proceed to investigate theoretically in depth and empirically with synthetic and standardized data. We stress that in addition to constituting a functional extension of traditional microaggregation, thereby broadening its applicability to the anonymization of statistical databases in a wide variety of contexts, the relaxation of trust assumptions is arguably expected to have a considerable impact on user acceptance and ultimately on data utility through mere availability.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

    Developing analytical distributions for temperature indices for the purposes of pricing temperature-based weather derivatives

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    Temperature-based weather derivatives are written on an index which is normally defined to be a nonlinear function of average daily temperatures. Recent empirical work has demonstrated the usefulness of simple time-series models of temperature for estimating the payoffs to these instruments. This paper develops analytical distributions of temperature indices on which temperature derivatives are written. If deviations of daily temperature from its expected value is modelled as an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with time-varying variance, then the distributions of the temperature index on which the derivative is written is the sum of truncated, correlated Gaussian deviates. The key result of this paper is to provide an analytical approximation to the distribution of this sum, thus allowing the accurate computation of payoffs without the need for any simulation. A data set comprising average daily temperature spanning over a hundred years for four Australian cities is used to demonstrate the efficacy of this approach for estimating the payoffs to temperature derivatives. It is demonstrated that expected payoffs computed directly from historical records is a particulary poor approach to the problem when there are trends in underlying average daily temperature. It is shown that the proposed analytical approach is superior to historical pricing.Weather Derivatives, Temperature Models, Cooling Degree Days, Maximum Likelihood Estimation, Distribution for Correlated Variables
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