Stacking tolerance to drought and resistance to a parasitic weed in tropical hybrid maize for enhancing resilience to stress combinations

Open Access JournalMaize is a food security crop cultivated in the African savannas that are vulnerable to the occurrence of drought stress and Striga hermonthica infestation. The co-occurrence of these stresses can severely damage crop growth and productivity of maize. Until recently, maize breeding in International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA) has focused on the development of either drought tolerant or S. hermonthica resistant germplasm using independent screening protocols. The present study was therefore conducted to examine the extent to which maize hybrids simultaneously expressing resistance to S. hermonthica and tolerance to drought (DTSTR) could be developed through sequential selection of parental lines using the two screening protocols. Regional trials involving 77 DTSTR and 22 commercial benchmark hybrids (STR and non-DTSTR) were then conducted under Striga-infested and non-infested conditions, managed drought stress and fully irrigated conditions as well as in multiple rainfed environments for 5 years. The observed yield reductions of 61% under managed drought stress and 23% under Striga-infestation created desirable stress levels leading to the detection of significant differences in grain yield among hybrids at individual stress and non-stress conditions. On average, the DTSTR hybrids out-yielded the STR and non-DTSTR commercial hybrids by 13–19% under managed drought stress and fully irrigated conditions and by −4 to 70% under Striga-infested and non-infested conditions. Among the DTSTR hybrids included in the regional trials, 33 were high yielders with better adaptability across environments under all stressful and non-stressful testing conditions. Twenty-four of the 33 DTSTR hybrids also yielded well across diverse rainfed environments. The genetic correlations of grain yield under managed drought stress with yield under Striga-infestation and multiple rainfed environments were 0.51 and 0.57, respectively. Also, a genetic correlation between yields under Striga-infestation with that recorded in multiple rainfed environments was 0.58. These results suggest that the sequential selection scheme offers an opportunity to accumulate desirable stress-related traits in parents contributing to superior agronomic performance in hybrids across stressful and diverse rainfed field environments that are commonly encountered in the tropical savannas of Africa

Finding the Important Factors in Large Discrete-Event Simulation: Sequential Bifurcation and its Applications

This contribution discusses experiments with many factors: the case study includes a simulation model with 92 factors.The experiments are guided by sequential bifurcation.This method is most efficient and effective if the true input/output behavior of the simulation model can be approximated through a first-order polynomial possibly augmented with two-factor interactions.The method is explained and illustrated through three related discrete-event simulation models.These models represent three supply chain configurations, studied for an Ericsson factory in Sweden.After simulating 21 scenarios (factor combinations) each replicated five times to account for noise a shortlist with the 11 most important factors is identified for the biggest of the three simulation models.simulation;bifurcation;supply;Sweden

Design of Experiments: An Overview

Design Of Experiments (DOE) is needed for experiments with real-life systems, and with either deterministic or random simulation models. This contribution discusses the different types of DOE for these three domains, but focusses on random simulation. DOE may have two goals: sensitivity analysis including factor screening and optimization. This contribution starts with classic DOE including 2k-p and Central Composite designs. Next, it discusses factor screening through Sequential Bifurcation. Then it discusses Kriging including Latin Hyper cube Sampling and sequential designs. It ends with optimization through Generalized Response Surface Methodology and Kriging combined with Mathematical Programming, including Taguchian robust optimization.simulation;sensitivity analysis;optimization;factor screening;Kriging;RSM;Taguchi

Sensitivity Analysis of Simulation Models

This contribution presents an overview of sensitivity analysis of simulation models, including the estimation of gradients. It covers classic designs and their corresponding (meta)models; namely, resolution-III designs including fractional-factorial two-level designs for first-order polynomial metamodels, resolution-IV and resolution-V designs for metamodels augmented with two-factor interactions, and designs for second-degree polynomial metamodels including central composite designs. It also reviews factor screening for simulation models with very many factors, focusing on the so-called "sequential bifurcation" method. Furthermore, it reviews Kriging metamodels and their designs. It mentions that sensitivity analysis may also aim at the optimization of the simulated system, allowing multiple random simulation outputs.simulation;sensitivity analysis;gradients;screening;Kriging;optimization;Response SurfaceMethodology;Taguchi

Determination and evaluation of clinically efficient stopping criteria for the multiple auditory steady-state response technique

Background: Although the auditory steady-state response (ASSR) technique utilizes objective statistical detection algorithms to estimate behavioural hearing thresholds, the audiologist still has to decide when to terminate ASSR recordings introducing once more a certain degree of subjectivity. Aims: The present study aimed at establishing clinically efficient stopping criteria for a multiple 80-Hz ASSR system. Methods: In Experiment 1, data of 31 normal hearing subjects were analyzed off-line to propose stopping rules. Consequently, ASSR recordings will be stopped when (1) all 8 responses reach significance and significance can be maintained for 8 consecutive sweeps; (2) the mean noise levels were ≤ 4 nV (if at this “≤ 4-nV” criterion, p-values were between 0.05 and 0.1, measurements were extended only once by 8 sweeps); and (3) a maximum amount of 48 sweeps was attained. In Experiment 2, these stopping criteria were applied on 10 normal hearing and 10 hearing-impaired adults to asses the efficiency. Results: The application of these stopping rules resulted in ASSR threshold values that were comparable to other multiple-ASSR research with normal hearing and hearing-impaired adults. Furthermore, in 80% of the cases, ASSR thresholds could be obtained within a time-frame of 1 hour. Investigating the significant response-amplitudes of the hearing-impaired adults through cumulative curves indicated that probably a higher noise-stop criterion than “≤ 4 nV” can be used. Conclusions: The proposed stopping rules can be used in adults to determine accurate ASSR thresholds within an acceptable time-frame of about 1 hour. However, additional research with infants and adults with varying degrees and configurations of hearing loss is needed to optimize these criteria

Experimental Design for Sensitivity Analysis, Optimization and Validation of Simulation Models

This chapter gives a survey on the use of statistical designs for what-if analysis in simula- tion, including sensitivity analysis, optimization, and validation/verification. Sensitivity analysis is divided into two phases. The first phase is a pilot stage, which consists of screening or searching for the important factors among (say) hundreds of potentially important factors. A novel screening technique is presented, namely sequential bifurcation. The second phase uses regression analysis to approximate the input/output transformation that is implied by the simulation model; the resulting regression model is also known as a metamodel or a response surface. Regression analysis gives better results when the simu- lation experiment is well designed, using either classical statistical designs (such as frac- tional factorials) or optimal designs (such as pioneered by Fedorov, Kiefer, and Wolfo- witz). To optimize the simulated system, the analysts may apply Response Surface Metho- dology (RSM); RSM combines regression analysis, statistical designs, and steepest-ascent hill-climbing. To validate a simulation model, again regression analysis and statistical designs may be applied. Several numerical examples and case-studies illustrate how statisti- cal techniques can reduce the ad hoc character of simulation; that is, these statistical techniques can make simulation studies give more general results, in less time. Appendix 1 summarizes confidence intervals for expected values, proportions, and quantiles, in termi- nating and steady-state simulations. Appendix 2 gives details on four variance reduction techniques, namely common pseudorandom numbers, antithetic numbers, control variates or regression sampling, and importance sampling. Appendix 3 describes jackknifing, which may give robust confidence intervals.least squares;distribution-free;non-parametric;stopping rule;run-length;Von Neumann;median;seed;likelihood ratio

A scenario for sequential experimentation

Statistical Methods

Sensitivity analysis and related analysis: A survey of statistical techniques

This paper reviews the state of the art in five related types of analysis, namely (i) sensitivity or what-if analysis, (ii) uncertainty or risk analysis, (iii) screening, (iv) validation, and (v) optimization. The main question is: when should which type of analysis be applied; which statistical techniques may then be used? This paper distinguishes the following five stages in the analysis of a simulation model. 1) Validation: the availability of data on the real system determines which type of statistical technique to use for validation. 2) Screening: in the simulation's pilot phase the really important inputs can be identified through a novel technique, called sequential bifurcation, which uses aggregation and sequential experimentation. 3) Sensitivity analysis: the really important inputs should be This approach with its five stages implies that sensitivity analysis should precede uncertainty analysis. This paper briefly discusses several case studies for each phase.Experimental Design;Statistical Methods;Regression Analysis;Risk Analysis;Least Squares;Sensitivity Analysis;Optimization;Perturbation;statistics

Cancer Subclones Derived from the Patient's Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma Tumor Stem Cells for the Screening of Personalized Antitumor Immunotherapy and Chemotherapy.

Studying on subclonal evolution of cancer stem cells can help illustrate how the immune system recognizes tumor cells, leading to subclonal treatment by immune-based therapies. Here, we discuss that cancer subclones derived from the patient's head and neck squamous cell carcinoma tumor stem cells can be used for the screening of personalized antitumor immunotherapy and chemotherapy, to maximize benefits and to minimize the adversary effects, toward personalized or precision medicine. We propose a "wait-and-watch" scheme for monitoring a lifetime cancer stem cell subclonal development evolved with local environments to cancer