577 research outputs found

    Online semi-supervised learning in non-stationary environments

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    Existing Data Stream Mining (DSM) algorithms assume the availability of labelled and balanced data, immediately or after some delay, to extract worthwhile knowledge from the continuous and rapid data streams. However, in many real-world applications such as Robotics, Weather Monitoring, Fraud Detection Systems, Cyber Security, and Computer Network Traffic Flow, an enormous amount of high-speed data is generated by Internet of Things sensors and real-time data on the Internet. Manual labelling of these data streams is not practical due to time consumption and the need for domain expertise. Another challenge is learning under Non-Stationary Environments (NSEs), which occurs due to changes in the data distributions in a set of input variables and/or class labels. The problem of Extreme Verification Latency (EVL) under NSEs is referred to as Initially Labelled Non-Stationary Environment (ILNSE). This is a challenging task because the learning algorithms have no access to the true class labels directly when the concept evolves. Several approaches exist that deal with NSE and EVL in isolation. However, few algorithms address both issues simultaneously. This research directly responds to ILNSE’s challenge in proposing two novel algorithms “Predictor for Streaming Data with Scarce Labels” (PSDSL) and Heterogeneous Dynamic Weighted Majority (HDWM) classifier. PSDSL is an Online Semi-Supervised Learning (OSSL) method for real-time DSM and is closely related to label scarcity issues in online machine learning. The key capabilities of PSDSL include learning from a small amount of labelled data in an incremental or online manner and being available to predict at any time. To achieve this, PSDSL utilises both labelled and unlabelled data to train the prediction models, meaning it continuously learns from incoming data and updates the model as new labelled or unlabelled data becomes available over time. Furthermore, it can predict under NSE conditions under the scarcity of class labels. PSDSL is built on top of the HDWM classifier, which preserves the diversity of the classifiers. PSDSL and HDWM can intelligently switch and adapt to the conditions. The PSDSL adapts to learning states between self-learning, micro-clustering and CGC, whichever approach is beneficial, based on the characteristics of the data stream. HDWM makes use of “seed” learners of different types in an ensemble to maintain its diversity. The ensembles are simply the combination of predictive models grouped to improve the predictive performance of a single classifier. PSDSL is empirically evaluated against COMPOSE, LEVELIW, SCARGC and MClassification on benchmarks, NSE datasets as well as Massive Online Analysis (MOA) data streams and real-world datasets. The results showed that PSDSL performed significantly better than existing approaches on most real-time data streams including randomised data instances. PSDSL performed significantly better than ‘Static’ i.e. the classifier is not updated after it is trained with the first examples in the data streams. When applied to MOA-generated data streams, PSDSL ranked highest (1.5) and thus performed significantly better than SCARGC, while SCARGC performed the same as the Static. PSDSL achieved better average prediction accuracies in a short time than SCARGC. The HDWM algorithm is evaluated on artificial and real-world data streams against existing well-known approaches such as the heterogeneous WMA and the homogeneous Dynamic DWM algorithm. The results showed that HDWM performed significantly better than WMA and DWM. Also, when recurring concept drifts were present, the predictive performance of HDWM showed an improvement over DWM. In both drift and real-world streams, significance tests and post hoc comparisons found significant differences between algorithms, HDWM performed significantly better than DWM and WMA when applied to MOA data streams and 4 real-world datasets Electric, Spam, Sensor and Forest cover. The seeding mechanism and dynamic inclusion of new base learners in the HDWM algorithms benefit from the use of both forgetting and retaining the models. The algorithm also provides the independence of selecting the optimal base classifier in its ensemble depending on the problem. A new approach, Envelope-Clustering is introduced to resolve the cluster overlap conflicts during the cluster labelling process. In this process, PSDSL transforms the centroids’ information of micro-clusters into micro-instances and generates new clusters called Envelopes. The nearest envelope clusters assist the conflicted micro-clusters and successfully guide the cluster labelling process after the concept drifts in the absence of true class labels. PSDSL has been evaluated on real-world problem ‘keystroke dynamics’, and the results show that PSDSL achieved higher prediction accuracy (85.3%) and SCARGC (81.6%), while the Static (49.0%) significantly degrades the performance due to changes in the users typing pattern. Furthermore, the predictive accuracies of SCARGC are found highly fluctuated between (41.1% to 81.6%) based on different values of parameter ‘k’ (number of clusters), while PSDSL automatically determine the best values for this parameter

    Study for the scientific development of the Sardinia Radio Telescope/SDSA configured for solar observations and radio-science aimed at Space Weather and Fundamental Physics applications

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    The Sun produces radiation across virtually the entire electromagnetic spectrum, each frequency range helps to better understand a different aspect of our star. In the radio domain, it is an interesting celestial object to study for the richness of physical phenomena that involve not only the astrophysical area of interest, but also plasma, nuclear and fundamental physics. However, even after decades of studies, our star still presents lots of mysteries. My PhD aims to investigate the Sun environment and its emission mechanism in the radio domain to better understand some of the complex solar phenomena, their connections and find applications in the Space Weather and Fundamental Physics fields. This work is possible thanks to new challenging development of the radio telescopes managed by the Italian National Institute of Astrophysics (INAF) and the Italian Space Agency (ASI) in a joint collaboration. SRT is an ideal instrument for this Thesis project thanks to its double configuration: Sardinia Deep Space Antenna (SDSA)/radio astronomy for radio science experiments and solar imaging. The SDSA is in the implementation phase. We are inquiring the most stringent observation scientific requirements that would be necessary to prepare the antenna to perform interplanetary spacecraft tracking in radio-science configuration. The radio-astronomy configuration is already operative and has permitted us to monitor the Sun for the last few years in K-band (18-26 GHz). Moreover, the Medicina radio telescope is fully equipped to perform solar observation and has contributed considerably to the solar imaging studies. Starting 2018, we obtained more than 300 maps of the entire solar disk in the K-band, filling the observational gap in the field of solar imaging at these frequencies. I performed a new calibration procedure adopting the Supernova Remnant Cas A as a flux reference, which provided typical errors <3% for the estimation of the quiet-Sun level components. My work includes a study on the active regions brightness and spectral characterization. The interpretation of the observed emission as thermal bremsstrahlung components combined with gyro-magnetic variable emission paves the way for the use of our system for long-term monitoring of the Sun. We are also starting to explore possible interesting connections between macro-features in our data and explosive Space Weather Phenomena

    AN AUTOMATED, DEEP LEARNING APPROACH TO SYSTEMATICALLY & SEQUENTIALLY DERIVE THREE-DIMENSIONAL KNEE KINEMATICS DIRECTLY FROM TWO-DIMENSIONAL FLUOROSCOPIC VIDEO

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    Total knee arthroplasty (TKA), also known as total knee replacement, is a surgical procedure to replace damaged parts of the knee joint with artificial components. It aims to relieve pain and improve knee function. TKA can improve knee kinematics and reduce pain, but it may also cause altered joint mechanics and complications. Proper patient selection, implant design, and surgical technique are important for successful outcomes. Kinematics analysis plays a vital role in TKA by evaluating knee joint movement and mechanics. It helps assess surgery success, guides implant and technique selection, informs implant design improvements, detects problems early, and improves patient outcomes. However, evaluating the kinematics of patients using conventional approaches presents significant challenges. The reliance on 3D CAD models limits applicability, as not all patients have access to such models. Moreover, the manual and time-consuming nature of the process makes it impractical for timely evaluations. Furthermore, the evaluation is confined to laboratory settings, limiting its feasibility in various locations. This study aims to address these limitations by introducing a new methodology for analyzing in vivo 3D kinematics using an automated deep learning approach. The proposed methodology involves several steps, starting with image segmentation of the femur and tibia using a robust deep learning approach. Subsequently, 3D reconstruction of the implants is performed, followed by automated registration. Finally, efficient knee kinematics modeling is conducted. The final kinematics results showed potential for reducing workload and increasing efficiency. The algorithms demonstrated high speed and accuracy, which could enable real-time TKA kinematics analysis in the operating room or clinical settings. Unlike previous studies that relied on sponsorships and limited patient samples, this algorithm allows the analysis of any patient, anywhere, and at any time, accommodating larger subject populations and complete fluoroscopic sequences. Although further improvements can be made, the study showcases the potential of machine learning to expand access to TKA analysis tools and advance biomedical engineering applications

    Machine learning in solar physics

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    The application of machine learning in solar physics has the potential to greatly enhance our understanding of the complex processes that take place in the atmosphere of the Sun. By using techniques such as deep learning, we are now in the position to analyze large amounts of data from solar observations and identify patterns and trends that may not have been apparent using traditional methods. This can help us improve our understanding of explosive events like solar flares, which can have a strong effect on the Earth environment. Predicting hazardous events on Earth becomes crucial for our technological society. Machine learning can also improve our understanding of the inner workings of the sun itself by allowing us to go deeper into the data and to propose more complex models to explain them. Additionally, the use of machine learning can help to automate the analysis of solar data, reducing the need for manual labor and increasing the efficiency of research in this field.Comment: 100 pages, 13 figures, 286 references, accepted for publication as a Living Review in Solar Physics (LRSP

    Efficient resilience analysis and decision-making for complex engineering systems

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    Modern societies around the world are increasingly dependent on the smooth functionality of progressively more complex systems, such as infrastructure systems, digital systems like the internet, and sophisticated machinery. They form the cornerstones of our technologically advanced world and their efficiency is directly related to our well-being and the progress of society. However, these important systems are constantly exposed to a wide range of threats of natural, technological, and anthropogenic origin. The emergence of global crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the ongoing threat of climate change have starkly illustrated the vulnerability of these widely ramified and interdependent systems, as well as the impossibility of predicting threats entirely. The pandemic, with its widespread and unexpected impacts, demonstrated how an external shock can bring even the most advanced systems to a standstill, while the ongoing climate change continues to produce unprecedented risks to system stability and performance. These global crises underscore the need for systems that can not only withstand disruptions, but also, recover from them efficiently and rapidly. The concept of resilience and related developments encompass these requirements: analyzing, balancing, and optimizing the reliability, robustness, redundancy, adaptability, and recoverability of systems -- from both technical and economic perspectives. This cumulative dissertation, therefore, focuses on developing comprehensive and efficient tools for resilience-based analysis and decision-making of complex engineering systems. The newly developed resilience decision-making procedure is at the core of these developments. It is based on an adapted systemic risk measure, a time-dependent probabilistic resilience metric, as well as a grid search algorithm, and represents a significant innovation as it enables decision-makers to identify an optimal balance between different types of resilience-enhancing measures, taking into account monetary aspects. Increasingly, system components have significant inherent complexity, requiring them to be modeled as systems themselves. Thus, this leads to systems-of-systems with a high degree of complexity. To address this challenge, a novel methodology is derived by extending the previously introduced resilience framework to multidimensional use cases and synergistically merging it with an established concept from reliability theory, the survival signature. The new approach combines the advantages of both original components: a direct comparison of different resilience-enhancing measures from a multidimensional search space leading to an optimal trade-off in terms of system resilience, and a significant reduction in computational effort due to the separation property of the survival signature. It enables that once a subsystem structure has been computed -- a typically computational expensive process -- any characterization of the probabilistic failure behavior of components can be validated without having to recompute the structure. In reality, measurements, expert knowledge, and other sources of information are loaded with multiple uncertainties. For this purpose, an efficient method based on the combination of survival signature, fuzzy probability theory, and non-intrusive stochastic simulation (NISS) is proposed. This results in an efficient approach to quantify the reliability of complex systems, taking into account the entire uncertainty spectrum. The new approach, which synergizes the advantageous properties of its original components, achieves a significant decrease in computational effort due to the separation property of the survival signature. In addition, it attains a dramatic reduction in sample size due to the adapted NISS method: only a single stochastic simulation is required to account for uncertainties. The novel methodology not only represents an innovation in the field of reliability analysis, but can also be integrated into the resilience framework. For a resilience analysis of existing systems, the consideration of continuous component functionality is essential. This is addressed in a further novel development. By introducing the continuous survival function and the concept of the Diagonal Approximated Signature as a corresponding surrogate model, the existing resilience framework can be usefully extended without compromising its fundamental advantages. In the context of the regeneration of complex capital goods, a comprehensive analytical framework is presented to demonstrate the transferability and applicability of all developed methods to complex systems of any type. The framework integrates the previously developed resilience, reliability, and uncertainty analysis methods. It provides decision-makers with the basis for identifying resilient regeneration paths in two ways: first, in terms of regeneration paths with inherent resilience, and second, regeneration paths that lead to maximum system resilience, taking into account technical and monetary factors affecting the complex capital good under analysis. In summary, this dissertation offers innovative contributions to efficient resilience analysis and decision-making for complex engineering systems. It presents universally applicable methods and frameworks that are flexible enough to consider system types and performance measures of any kind. This is demonstrated in numerous case studies ranging from arbitrary flow networks, functional models of axial compressors to substructured infrastructure systems with several thousand individual components.Moderne Gesellschaften sind weltweit zunehmend von der reibungslosen FunktionalitĂ€t immer komplexer werdender Systeme, wie beispielsweise Infrastruktursysteme, digitale Systeme wie das Internet oder hochentwickelten Maschinen, abhĂ€ngig. Sie bilden die Eckpfeiler unserer technologisch fortgeschrittenen Welt, und ihre Effizienz steht in direktem Zusammenhang mit unserem Wohlbefinden sowie dem Fortschritt der Gesellschaft. Diese wichtigen Systeme sind jedoch einer stĂ€ndigen und breiten Palette von Bedrohungen natĂŒrlichen, technischen und anthropogenen Ursprungs ausgesetzt. Das Auftreten globaler Krisen wie die COVID-19-Pandemie und die anhaltende Bedrohung durch den Klimawandel haben die AnfĂ€lligkeit der weit verzweigten und voneinander abhĂ€ngigen Systeme sowie die Unmöglichkeit einer Gefahrenvorhersage in voller GĂ€nze eindrĂŒcklich verdeutlicht. Die Pandemie mit ihren weitreichenden und unerwarteten Auswirkungen hat gezeigt, wie ein externer Schock selbst die fortschrittlichsten Systeme zum Stillstand bringen kann, wĂ€hrend der anhaltende Klimawandel immer wieder beispiellose Risiken fĂŒr die SystemstabilitĂ€t und -leistung hervorbringt. Diese globalen Krisen unterstreichen den Bedarf an Systemen, die nicht nur Störungen standhalten, sondern sich auch schnell und effizient von ihnen erholen können. Das Konzept der Resilienz und die damit verbundenen Entwicklungen umfassen diese Anforderungen: Analyse, AbwĂ€gung und Optimierung der ZuverlĂ€ssigkeit, Robustheit, Redundanz, AnpassungsfĂ€higkeit und Wiederherstellbarkeit von Systemen -- sowohl aus technischer als auch aus wirtschaftlicher Sicht. In dieser kumulativen Dissertation steht daher die Entwicklung umfassender und effizienter Instrumente fĂŒr die Resilienz-basierte Analyse und Entscheidungsfindung von komplexen Systemen im Mittelpunkt. Das neu entwickelte Resilienz-Entscheidungsfindungsverfahren steht im Kern dieser Entwicklungen. Es basiert auf einem adaptierten systemischen Risikomaß, einer zeitabhĂ€ngigen, probabilistischen Resilienzmetrik sowie einem Gittersuchalgorithmus und stellt eine bedeutende Innovation dar, da es EntscheidungstrĂ€gern ermöglicht, ein optimales Gleichgewicht zwischen verschiedenen Arten von Resilienz-steigernden Maßnahmen unter BerĂŒcksichtigung monetĂ€rer Aspekte zu identifizieren. Zunehmend weisen Systemkomponenten eine erhebliche EigenkomplexitĂ€t auf, was dazu fĂŒhrt, dass sie selbst als Systeme modelliert werden mĂŒssen. Hieraus ergeben sich Systeme aus Systemen mit hoher KomplexitĂ€t. Um diese Herausforderung zu adressieren, wird eine neue Methodik abgeleitet, indem das zuvor eingefĂŒhrte Resilienzrahmenwerk auf multidimensionale AnwendungsfĂ€lle erweitert und synergetisch mit einem etablierten Konzept aus der ZuverlĂ€ssigkeitstheorie, der Überlebenssignatur, zusammengefĂŒhrt wird. Der neue Ansatz kombiniert die Vorteile beider ursprĂŒnglichen Komponenten: Einerseits ermöglicht er einen direkten Vergleich verschiedener Resilienz-steigernder Maßnahmen aus einem mehrdimensionalen Suchraum, der zu einem optimalen Kompromiss in Bezug auf die Systemresilienz fĂŒhrt. Andererseits ermöglicht er durch die Separationseigenschaft der Überlebenssignatur eine signifikante Reduktion des Rechenaufwands. Sobald eine Subsystemstruktur berechnet wurde -- ein typischerweise rechenintensiver Prozess -- kann jede Charakterisierung des probabilistischen Ausfallverhaltens von Komponenten validiert werden, ohne dass die Struktur erneut berechnet werden muss. In der RealitĂ€t sind Messungen, Expertenwissen sowie weitere Informationsquellen mit vielfĂ€ltigen Unsicherheiten belastet. HierfĂŒr wird eine effiziente Methode vorgeschlagen, die auf der Kombination von Überlebenssignatur, unscharfer Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie und nicht-intrusiver stochastischer Simulation (NISS) basiert. Dadurch entsteht ein effizienter Ansatz zur Quantifizierung der ZuverlĂ€ssigkeit komplexer Systeme unter BerĂŒcksichtigung des gesamten Unsicherheitsspektrums. Der neue Ansatz, der die vorteilhaften Eigenschaften seiner ursprĂŒnglichen Komponenten synergetisch zusammenfĂŒhrt, erreicht eine bedeutende Verringerung des Rechenaufwands aufgrund der Separationseigenschaft der Überlebenssignatur. Er erzielt zudem eine drastische Reduzierung der StichprobengrĂ¶ĂŸe aufgrund der adaptierten NISS-Methode: Es wird nur eine einzige stochastische Simulation benötigt, um Unsicherheiten zu berĂŒcksichtigen. Die neue Methodik stellt nicht nur eine Neuerung auf dem Gebiet der ZuverlĂ€ssigkeitsanalyse dar, sondern kann auch in das Resilienzrahmenwerk integriert werden. FĂŒr eine Resilienzanalyse von real existierenden Systemen ist die BerĂŒcksichtigung kontinuierlicher KomponentenfunktionalitĂ€t unerlĂ€sslich. Diese wird in einer weiteren Neuentwicklung adressiert. Durch die EinfĂŒhrung der kontinuierlichen Überlebensfunktion und dem Konzept der Diagonal Approximated Signature als entsprechendes Ersatzmodell kann das bestehende Resilienzrahmenwerk sinnvoll erweitert werden, ohne seine grundlegenden Vorteile zu beeintrĂ€chtigen. Im Kontext der Regeneration komplexer InvestitionsgĂŒter wird ein umfassendes Analyserahmenwerk vorgestellt, um die Übertragbarkeit und Anwendbarkeit aller entwickelten Methoden auf komplexe Systeme jeglicher Art zu demonstrieren. Das Rahmenwerk integriert die zuvor entwickelten Methoden der Resilienz-, ZuverlĂ€ssigkeits- und Unsicherheitsanalyse. Es bietet EntscheidungstrĂ€gern die Basis fĂŒr die Identifikation resilienter Regenerationspfade in zweierlei Hinsicht: Zum einen im Sinne von Regenerationspfaden mit inhĂ€renter Resilienz und zum anderen Regenerationspfade, die zu einer maximalen Systemresilienz unter BerĂŒcksichtigung technischer und monetĂ€rer EinflussgrĂ¶ĂŸen des zu analysierenden komplexen Investitionsgutes fĂŒhren. Zusammenfassend bietet diese Dissertation innovative BeitrĂ€ge zur effizienten Resilienzanalyse und Entscheidungsfindung fĂŒr komplexe Ingenieursysteme. Sie prĂ€sentiert universell anwendbare Methoden und Rahmenwerke, die flexibel genug sind, um beliebige Systemtypen und Leistungsmaße zu berĂŒcksichtigen. Dies wird in zahlreichen Fallstudien von willkĂŒrlichen Flussnetzwerken, funktionalen Modellen von Axialkompressoren bis hin zu substrukturierten Infrastruktursystemen mit mehreren tausend Einzelkomponenten demonstriert

    Demand Response in Smart Grids

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    The Special Issue “Demand Response in Smart Grids” includes 11 papers on a variety of topics. The success of this Special Issue demonstrates the relevance of demand response programs and events in the operation of power and energy systems at both the distribution level and at the wide power system level. This reprint addresses the design, implementation, and operation of demand response programs, with focus on methods and techniques to achieve an optimized operation as well as on the electricity consumer

    Mathematical Methods and Operation Research in Logistics, Project Planning, and Scheduling

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    In the last decade, the Industrial Revolution 4.0 brought flexible supply chains and flexible design projects to the forefront. Nevertheless, the recent pandemic, the accompanying economic problems, and the resulting supply problems have further increased the role of logistics and supply chains. Therefore, planning and scheduling procedures that can respond flexibly to changed circumstances have become more valuable both in logistics and projects. There are already several competing criteria of project and logistic process planning and scheduling that need to be reconciled. At the same time, the COVID-19 pandemic has shown that even more emphasis needs to be placed on taking potential risks into account. Flexibility and resilience are emphasized in all decision-making processes, including the scheduling of logistic processes, activities, and projects

    Clickstream Data Analysis: A Clustering Approach Based on Mixture Hidden Markov Models

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    Nowadays, the availability of devices such as laptops and cell phones enables one to browse the web at any time and place. As a consequence, a company needs to have a website so as to maintain or increase customer loyalty and reach potential new customers. Besides, acting as a virtual point-of-sale, the company portal allows it to obtain insights on potential customers through clickstream data, web generated data that track users accesses and activities in websites. However, these data are not easy to handle as they are complex, unstructured and limited by lack of clear information about user intentions and goals. Clickstream data analysis is a suitable tool for managing the complexity of these datasets, obtaining a cleaned and processed sequential dataframe ready to identify and analyse patterns. Analysing clickstream data is important for companies as it enables them to under stand differences in web user behaviour while they explore websites, how they move from one page to another and what they select in order to define business strategies tar geting specific types of potential costumers. To obtain this level of insight it is pivotal to understand how to exploit hidden information related to clickstream data. This work presents the cleaning and pre-processing procedures for clickstream data which are needed to get a structured sequential dataset and analyses these sequences by the application of Mixture of discrete time Hidden Markov Models (MHMMs), a statisti cal tool suitable for clickstream data analysis and profile identification that has not been widely used in this context. Specifically, hidden Markov process accounts for a time varying latent variable to handle uncertainty and groups together observed states based on unknown similarity and entails identifying both the number of mixture components re lating to the subpopulations as well as the number of latent states for each latent Markov chain. However, the application of MHMMs requires the identification of both the number of components and states. Information Criteria (IC) are generally used for model selection in mixture hidden Markov models and, although their performance has been widely studied for mixture models and hidden Markov models, they have received little attention in the MHMM context. The most widely used criterion is BIC even if its performance for these models depends on factors such as the number of components and sequence length. Another class of model selection criteria is the Classification Criteria (CC). They were defined specifically for clustering purposes and rely on an entropy measure to account for separability between groups. These criteria are clearly the best option for our purpose, but their application as model selection tools for MHMMs requires the definition of a suitable entropy measure. In the light of these considerations, this work proposes a classification criterion based on an integrated classification likelihood approach for MHMMs that accounts for the two latent classes in the model: the subpopulations and the hidden states. This criterion is a modified ICL BIC, a classification criterion that was originally defined in the mixture model context and used in hidden Markov models. ICL BIC is a suitable score to identify the number of classes (components or states) and, thus, to extend it to MHMMs we de fined a joint entropy accounting for both a component-related entropy and a state-related conditional entropy. The thesis presents a Monte Carlo simulation study to compare selection criteria per formance, the results of which point out the limitations of the most commonly used infor mation criteria and demonstrate that the proposed criterion outperforms them in identify ing components and states, especially in short length sequences which are quite common in website accesses. The proposed selection criterion was applied to real clickstream data collected from the website of a Sicilian company operating in the hospitality sector. Data was modelled by an MHMM identifying clusters related to the browsing behaviour of web users which provided essential indications for developing new business strategies. This thesis is structured as follows: after an introduction on the main topics in Chapter 1, we present the clickstream data and their cleaning and pre-processing steps in Chapter 2; Chapter 3 illustrates the structure and estimation algorithms of mixture hidden Markov models; Chapter 4 presents a review of model selection criteria and the definition of the proposed ICL BIC for MHMMs; the real clickstream data analysis follows in Chapter 5

    A Data-Driven Optimization Model for Medical Resource Allocation during the Pandemic

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    The outbreak of Covid-19 in recent years has once again brought the critical issue of medical resource allocation during a pandemic to the forefront of research and public attention. The dynamic and rapid nature of the pandemic has posed significant challenges in accurately predicting the demands for medical resources and developing effective strategies for their distribution. In this study, we aim to address these challenges by studying the medical resource allocation problem during a pandemic and proposing a data-driven optimization methodology that combines mathematical programming and machine learning techniques. To tackle the problem of demand prediction, we utilize a Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM) model to predict medical resource demand using historical pandemic time series data. Building upon the demand predictions, we develop a linear programming model to optimize the allocation of medical resources. The objective is to maximize the total accessibility of hospitals within each region while also ensuring a balanced distribution of accessibility across all regions. We also conducted a case study on the application of this framework to the Quebec, Canada, pandemic hospitalization case scenarios. The dataset we utilized consisted of hospitalization case numbers from 16 regions in Quebec, along with the geographical locations of 15 regions and their corresponding healthcare facilities. The prediction performance is evaluated by mean absolute error(MAE) and root mean square error(RMSE), which yielded average values of 3.079 and 5.491, respectively. And after optimizing, the total accessibility of all regions is 4.503. The results indicate the effectiveness of our proposed method in accurately predicting future hospitalization numbers and determining the necessary increase in bed capacity for each region, showcasing its potential to assist in resource planning and allocation during a pandemic

    Robust learning to rank models and their biomedical applications

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    There exist many real-world applications such as recommendation systems, document retrieval, and computational biology where the correct ordering of instances is of equal or greater importance than predicting the exact value of some discrete or continuous outcome. Learning-to-Rank (LTR) refers to a group of algorithms that apply machine learning techniques to tackle these ranking problems. Despite their empirical success, most existing LTR models are not built to be robust to errors in labeling or annotation, distributional data shift, or adversarial data perturbations. To fill this gap, we develop four LTR frameworks that are robust to various types of perturbations. First, Pairwise Elastic Net Regression Ranking (PENRR) is an elastic-net-based regression method for drug sensitivity prediction. PENRR infers robust predictors of drug responses from patient genomic information. The special design of this model (comparing each drug with other drugs in the same cell line and comparing that drug with itself in other cell lines) significantly enhances the accuracy of the drug prediction model under limited data. This approach is also able to solve the problem of fitting on the insensitive drugs that is commonly encountered in regression-based models. Second, Regression-based Ranking by Pairwise Cluster Comparisons (RRPCC) is a ridge-regression-based method for ranking clusters of similar protein complex conformations generated by an underlying docking program (i.e., ClusPro). Rather than using regression to predict scores, which would equally penalize deviations for either low-quality and high-quality clusters, we seek to predict the difference of scores for any pair of clusters corresponding to the same complex. RRPCC combines these pairwise assessments to form a ranked list of clusters, from higher to lower quality. We apply RRPCC to clusters produced by the automated docking server ClusPro and, depending on the training/validation strategy, we show. improvement by 24%–100% in ranking acceptable or better quality clusters first, and by 15%–100% in ranking medium or better quality clusters first. Third, Distributionally Robust Multi-Output Regression Ranking (DRMRR) is a listwise LTR model that induces robustness into LTR problems using the Distributionally Robust Optimization framework. Contrasting to existing methods, the scoring function of DRMRR was designed as a multivariate mapping from a feature vector to a vector of deviation scores, which captures local context information and cross-document interactions. DRMRR employs ranking metrics (i.e., NDCG) in its output. Particularly, we used the notion of position deviation to define a vector of relevance score instead of a scalar one. We then adopted the DRO framework to minimize a worst-case expected multi-output loss function over a probabilistic ambiguity set that is defined by the Wasserstein metric. We also presented an equivalent convex reformulation of the DRO problem, which is shown to be tighter than the ones proposed by the previous studies. Fourth, Inversion Transformer-based Neural Ranking (ITNR) is a Transformer-based model to predict drug responses using RNAseq gene expression profiles, drug descriptors, and drug fingerprints. It utilizes a Context-Aware-Transformer architecture as its scoring function that ensures the modeling of inter-item dependencies. We also introduced a new loss function using the concept of Inversion and approximate permutation matrices. The accuracy and robustness of these LTR models are verified through three medical applications, namely cluster ranking in protein-protein docking, medical document retrieval, and drug response prediction
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