19,810 research outputs found
Sequential Predictions based on Algorithmic Complexity
This paper studies sequence prediction based on the monotone Kolmogorov
complexity Km=-log m, i.e. based on universal deterministic/one-part MDL. m is
extremely close to Solomonoff's universal prior M, the latter being an
excellent predictor in deterministic as well as probabilistic environments,
where performance is measured in terms of convergence of posteriors or losses.
Despite this closeness to M, it is difficult to assess the prediction quality
of m, since little is known about the closeness of their posteriors, which are
the important quantities for prediction. We show that for deterministic
computable environments, the "posterior" and losses of m converge, but rapid
convergence could only be shown on-sequence; the off-sequence convergence can
be slow. In probabilistic environments, neither the posterior nor the losses
converge, in general.Comment: 26 pages, LaTe
Driven by Compression Progress: A Simple Principle Explains Essential Aspects of Subjective Beauty, Novelty, Surprise, Interestingness, Attention, Curiosity, Creativity, Art, Science, Music, Jokes
I argue that data becomes temporarily interesting by itself to some
self-improving, but computationally limited, subjective observer once he learns
to predict or compress the data in a better way, thus making it subjectively
simpler and more beautiful. Curiosity is the desire to create or discover more
non-random, non-arbitrary, regular data that is novel and surprising not in the
traditional sense of Boltzmann and Shannon but in the sense that it allows for
compression progress because its regularity was not yet known. This drive
maximizes interestingness, the first derivative of subjective beauty or
compressibility, that is, the steepness of the learning curve. It motivates
exploring infants, pure mathematicians, composers, artists, dancers, comedians,
yourself, and (since 1990) artificial systems.Comment: 35 pages, 3 figures, based on KES 2008 keynote and ALT 2007 / DS 2007
joint invited lectur
Algorithmic Complexity Bounds on Future Prediction Errors
We bound the future loss when predicting any (computably) stochastic sequence
online. Solomonoff finitely bounded the total deviation of his universal
predictor from the true distribution by the algorithmic complexity of
. Here we assume we are at a time and already observed .
We bound the future prediction performance on by a new
variant of algorithmic complexity of given , plus the complexity of the
randomness deficiency of . The new complexity is monotone in its condition
in the sense that this complexity can only decrease if the condition is
prolonged. We also briefly discuss potential generalizations to Bayesian model
classes and to classification problems.Comment: 21 page
Algorithmic Randomness as Foundation of Inductive Reasoning and Artificial Intelligence
This article is a brief personal account of the past, present, and future of
algorithmic randomness, emphasizing its role in inductive inference and
artificial intelligence. It is written for a general audience interested in
science and philosophy. Intuitively, randomness is a lack of order or
predictability. If randomness is the opposite of determinism, then algorithmic
randomness is the opposite of computability. Besides many other things, these
concepts have been used to quantify Ockham's razor, solve the induction
problem, and define intelligence.Comment: 9 LaTeX page
- …