Universality of Bayesian mixture predictors

The problem is that of sequential probability forecasting for finite-valued time series. The data is generated by an unknown probability distribution over the space of all one-way infinite sequences. It is known that this measure belongs to a given set C, but the latter is completely arbitrary (uncountably infinite, without any structure given). The performance is measured with asymptotic average log loss. In this work it is shown that the minimax asymptotic performance is always attainable, and it is attained by a convex combination of a countably many measures from the set C (a Bayesian mixture). This was previously only known for the case when the best achievable asymptotic error is 0. This also contrasts previous results that show that in the non-realizable case all Bayesian mixtures may be suboptimal, while there is a predictor that achieves the optimal performance

Beyond Disagreement-based Agnostic Active Learning

We study agnostic active learning, where the goal is to learn a classifier in a pre-specified hypothesis class interactively with as few label queries as possible, while making no assumptions on the true function generating the labels. The main algorithms for this problem are {\em{disagreement-based active learning}}, which has a high label requirement, and {\em{margin-based active learning}}, which only applies to fairly restricted settings. A major challenge is to find an algorithm which achieves better label complexity, is consistent in an agnostic setting, and applies to general classification problems. In this paper, we provide such an algorithm. Our solution is based on two novel contributions -- a reduction from consistent active learning to confidence-rated prediction with guaranteed error, and a novel confidence-rated predictor